Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy COP11

1. Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy COP11 December 5, 2005 Climate and Energy ProgramWorld Resources Institute

2. Data providers CDIAC RIVM IPCC IEA World Bank UNDP U.S. EPA U.S. EIA UNFCCC Houghton Acknowledgements • Funding providers • U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation

3. Data – Policy Linkage Working assumptions: • Information is the first step to solving any problem • Better information → better decisions • “Delivery system” matters • CAIT • Navigating the Numbers report

4. Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT) • A web-based information and analysis tool on global climate change developed by WRI. CAIT includes: • Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus other policy-relevant data and indicators • Data for 186 countries, plus regions • Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis) • Policy neutral • 4,000 + registered users

6. Navigating the Numbers • Objectives: • Convey wealth of GHG data in digestible form • Country-level data (Part I) • Sector-level data (Part II) • Identify policy-relevant insights from the data (Parts I and II)

7. Part I: Country-level data • Indicators • Absolute, per capita, intensity • Time periods • Present, past, and future trends • Emissions “Context” • Drivers: GDP, population, fuel mix, efficiency, structure, trade, fossil fuel reserves, etc. • Socio-economic context: development indicators

8. Part II: Sector-level data • Organize data: sector, end-use, gas

9. GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

10. Part II: Sector-level data • Organize data: sector, end-use, gas • Identify and evaluate key sectors • Absolute, per capita; past and future trends • Sector “context” data: • Company-level production levels (e.g., iron, aluminum) • Trade flows, investment, MNC presence • GHG measurement and attribution issues • International cooperation assessed across six criteria

11. Policy-Relevant Implications • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

12. Policy-Relevant Implications • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

13. Global CO2 Emissions Growth

14. Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth % Percent change from 2000

15. Policy-Relevant Implications • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

16. Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing

17. Most Countries Contribute Little to GHG Buildup

18. Top 25: GHG Emissions Population GDP

19. Top 25: Extreme Diversity: Diversity of Approaches Needed

20. Policy-Relevant Conclusions • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

21. Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025

22. Policy-Relevant Conclusions • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

23. Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

24. Emissions per Capita: Consensus? GHG Emissions per Capita

25. Fuel mix affects CO2 emissions Electric Power Sector

26. Trade affects CO2 emissions CO2 “Imports”: Change in CO2 emissions if accounting is on the basis of domestic consumption

27. Population Growth affects CO2 Emission trends

28. Policy-Relevant Conclusions • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

29. International Sectoral Cooperation • Did not address different “forms” of sectoral cooperation • How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] • Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation • Promote participation • Avoid “leakage” • Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness) • How conductive to international cooperation? [6 criteria] • Simple grading system: “+” “–” or no grade.

30. Summary of Sectoral Analysis

31. Sectoral Cooperation • “Sector-only” model is unlikely be effective • Comprehensive agreements can have: • “Carve outs” [aviation] • Special sectoral provisions [LUCF] • Complementary sectoral agreements • Analysis helps reveal: • Where to target investment, technology, and policy • Kyoto’s perceived success and failure

32. Conclusions • Global trends are in the wrong direction • Address GHGs in context of big emitting countries and sectors • Int’l cooperation, investment, technology • No single indicator tells a complete story • Data does not point directly toward a solution • Nature and scale of problem • Diverse national circumstances

33. Thank you! Kevin Baumert kbaumert@wri.org Tim Herzog therzog@wri.org Jonathan Pershing jpershing@wri.org