Global Tourism Insights 2002: Trends and Prospects

1. Market Intelligence and Promotion Section International Tourism in 2002 Preliminary results and short-term prospects News conference World Tourism Organization Hotel NH Eurobuilding, 27 January, 2003 World Tourism Organization www.world-tourism.org

2. World: gradual recovery • International Tourist Arrivals: • 715 million, +3.1% • Average growth 1990-2000: 4.3% ▲ ▼ Asia and the Pacific +7.9%, Middle East +10.6%, Africa +3.7% Americas –0.6%, Europe +2.4% • Average receipts per arrival (2001): • euro 750 / US$ 670 • Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF): • 2002: +2.7% ; 2003: +3.6%

3. World Tourism characterized by: global economic downturn affecting all major economies at same time general uncertainty after 11S attacks and war on terrorism not so much decrease in overall volume but above all shifts in demand overall pressure on receipts 2001 change of trend

4. predominantly continuation of the scenario that started in 2001 uncertainty still present economic recovery not as quickly as initially expected mixed results in first half of the year 2002 gradual recovery over the months many destinations still in minus, some in plus by sector the picture is equally mixed 2002 better than expected

5. wait and see attitude => late-booking trips closer to home, intraregional traffic picks up first sensitivity to price / business travel cost cutting much depends on economic conditions operators have reduced capacity pent up demand because of postponed travel experience of the past shows that tourism is very resilient and has a great capacity for recuperation Changes in tourist behaviour

6. Especially closer to home Gulf war: drop in interregional traffic in 1991, but strong rebound in 1992 In general interregional traffic tends to grow at a faster pace than intraregional traffic 11S 2001: above all drop in interregional traffic, intraregional still positive

7. Tourism strongly dependent on economy echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland / Falklands conflict / conflict Israel-Lebanon Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia Asian Financial Crisis 11S

8. Europe: modest growth • International Tourist Arrivals: • 411 million, +2.4% • 58% of world total • Average growth 1990-2000: 3.6% ▲ ▼ Turkey +13.6%, Croatia +6.1%, Bulgaria +7.8%, UK +3.1% Poland –5.3%, Portugal –3.5%, Germany 0%, France +2% • Average receipts per arrival (2001): • euro 650 / US$ 580 • Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF): • 2002: +1.8% ; 2003: +2.9%

9. Asia and the Pacific: buoyant • International Tourist Arrivals: • 131 million, +7.9% • 18% of world total • Average growth 1990-2000: 7.2% China +11%, Hong Kong (China) +21%, Japan +10%, Macao (China) +12%, Iran +17% India –6.6%, Indonesia –2.2% Australia -0.7%, Malaysia +2% (11m) ▲ ▼ • Average receipts per arrival (2001): • euro 800 / US$ 720 • Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF): • 2002: +4.5% ; 2003: +4.9%

10. Americas: still depressed • International Tourist Arrivals: • 120 million, -0.6% • 17% of world total • Average growth 1990-2000: 3.3% ▲ ▼ Canada +1.7% (11m), Argentina +15%, United States –0.1%, Mexico –0.1% Brazil –7.2%, Cuba –6.7%, Dominican Republic –2.5% • Average receipts per arrival (2001): • euro 1130 / US$ 1010 • Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF): • 2002: +1.5% ; 2003: +2.7%

11. Africa: South strong / North weak • International Tourist Arrivals: • 29 million, +3.7% • 4% of world total • Average growth 1990-2000: 6.1% South Africa +9.9% (11m), Ghana +9.9%, Tanzania +6.8%, Senegal +5%, Botswana +7.3% Tunisia –6.0%, Morocco –2.7% (11m), Mauritius 1.6% (9m), Seychelles 1.7% ▲ ▼ • Average receipts per arrival (2001): • euro 460 / US$ 410 • Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF): • 2002: +3.0% ; 2003: +4.1%

12. Middle East: strong rebound • International Tourist Arrivals: • 24 million, +10.6% • 3.4 % of world total • Average growth 1990-2000: 9.7% ▲ ▼ Egypt +9.4 (11m), Dubai +30% (6m), Jordan +6.1% (11m), Lebanon +13% (11m) • Average receipts per arrival (2001): • euro 580 / US$ 520 • Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF): • 2002: +1.5% ; 2003: +3.3%

13. World’s Top 5 Tourism Destinations * * * Estimates by WTO based on data available for part of the year

14. Spain: remarkable strong performance last years • International Tourist Arrivals • 50.1 million in 2001, between 51 and 52 million in 2002, 2nd in Europe and in the world • International Tourism Receipts • euro 36.7 billion (2001), 1st in Europe and 2nd in the world • Average receipts per arrival euro 741 / US$ 664 • Tourism represented 12% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1999

15. WTO Tourism Recovery Committee • Established in Osaka during WTO XIV General Assembly (Sept. 2001) • First meeting at WTM in London (Nov. 2001) (Special Report Number 18) • Two meetings for the Mediterranean region in Madrid (Jan. 2002) and Tunis (March) (Special Report Number 19) • Second full meeting during ITB in Berlin (March 2002) (Special Report Number 20) • Third full meeting during WTM in London (Nov. 2002) (Special Report Number 21) See: www.world-tourism.org/market_research/recovery/home

16. Vulnerability / resistance (a few examples)

17. WTO Tourism Market Trends series • Series of 6 reports: • World Overview & Tourism Topics • 5 regional volumes • Africa • Americas • Asia and the Pacific • Europe • Middle East See: www.world-tourism .org /infoshop

18. Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization www.world-tourism.org Market Intelligence and Promotion Section email: marketing@world-tourism.org