Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems

1. Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California at Berkeley 32nd International Symposium on Combustion McGill University, Montreal 6 August 2008

2. Science for Policy Decisions—Three Key Areas • Air Pollution • Global Warming • Fuel Resources

3. GLOBAL WARMING

4. Global Average Radiative ForcingIPCC Fourth Assessment, 2007

5. Keeling Curve, CO2 at Mauna LoaRed line is 57% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions

6. Paleoclimate CO2 and Temperature from Ice Core Data

7. Four Global Warming Questions • 1) Is global warming occurring ? (science) • 2) What is the cause? (science) • 3) What are the likely consequences? (science based prediction) • 4) What should we do about it? (policy)

8. Global Warming is Occurring • Historical records of land and sea temperatures • Satellite measurements

9. Global Warming is OccurringMean Land and Ocean Temperatures

10. Annual Mean Global Temperature

11. Greenhouse Gas Warming is Moderated by Negative Forcings

12. We Are the Cause ofGlobal Warming • Anthropogenic contributions dominate radiative forcings that control earth’s temperature • IPCC Fourth Assessment: “There is a very high confidence that the global average new effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W/m2”

13. The Consequences of Global Warming are Uncertain • Some effects are already observable • Arctic ice is shrinking more rapidly than predicted • Tundra melting, increased Greenland ice cap summer melt, breakup of West Antarctic shelf • Model based projections match historical temperature data

14. 2007 Minimum Sea Ice Extent September 1979-1983 Average September 2002-2006 Average Universität Bremen

15. Sea Level Rise Impact

16. Implications for CombustionGlobal Warming • Improve efficiency of combustion and end-use devices (efficiency, efficiency, efficiency) • Carbon capture and sequestration presents challenges and opportunities • Control of more frequent large forest fires • Lower carbon alternatives to petroleum

17. FUEL RESOURCES

18. Fossil Fuel Resources far Exceed 1750–2004 Consumption Source: Hansen 2006, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/agu_communicating.pdf

19. Production Costs and Supplies of Liquid Transportation FuelsFarrell and Brandt

20. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, New Passenger Cars

21. Fossil Fuel Use Trends note different scales

22. Implications for CombustionFuel Resources • Lower carbon alternatives to petroleum • Electricity begins to displace combustion fuels in surface transportation • Hydrogen a long term (mid-century) option • Prepare for a phase down of carbon fuels

23. Beijing AIR POLLUTION Los Angeles Guatemala

24. Air Pollutants • CO • SO2 • NO2 • O3 • Pb • Particulates • Air contaminants/air toxics

25. Adverse Health Effects Evidence • Human clinical exposures • Animal studies • Epidemiology • Large samples (statistical strength) • Relevant, real-world exposures • Uncertain exposures • Shift from pulmonary to cardiovascular effects

26. Air Quality Goals

27. Particulate Matter • TSP: total suspended particulate • PM10 • PM2.5 • PMx • Nanoparticles

28. Mortality Relative Risks from10-µg/m3 Increase in PM2.5Jarrett, et al.

29. Implications for CombustionAir Pollution • Industrialized countries have reduced combustion generated pollutant emissions [gm/MJ] by about 98% • Total emissions diminished by growth • Transfer to developing countries • Urgent public health need to reduce cooking and heating emissions in agrarian and developing societies