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Project title: Google African Meningitis Project

Project title: Google African Meningitis Project. Goal: Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo, relevant to vaccinate dissemination decision-making. Sponsor : Google non-profit wing Current and Anticipated Funding

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Project title: Google African Meningitis Project

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  1. Project title:Google African Meningitis Project • Goal:Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo, relevant to vaccinate dissemination decision-making. • Sponsor: Google non-profit wing • Current and Anticipated Funding • Calendar Year 2009: $230K • Calendar Year 2010: $230K • Calendar Year 2011 $230K • Calendar Year 2012: $210K • Participants: • RAL: T. Hopson, M. Hayden, Arnaud Dumont, MukulTewari, Raj Pandya (UCAR), Tom Yoksas (UNIDATA) • New Opportunities • Utilization of Thorpex-Tigge multi-center ensemble; medium-range disease forecasting

  2. Significant Accomplishments to Date -- context and weather linkages • Meningitis endemic in Africa • Sporadic large epidemics (1996-1997:, 250,000 cases) • 5-10% fatality rate • 10-20% of survivors have permanent impacts: hearing loss, brain damage, learning disabilities • Vaccine in very limited supply • Risk = f(Relative Humidity) • We can forecast RH & vaccines can be pre-positioned for maximum effectiveness • Weekly telecons with WHO, Chad, Nigeria, Togo, Benin on 2-week epidemic outlook High Epidemic Risk when Dry Low Risk when Wet National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

  3. Significant Accomplishments to Date -- context and weather linkages Relative humidity across the Meningitis Belt forecast 1 week in advance … Within dashed region, risk has doubled (above background levels) … converted to probability of an epidemic alert occurring across the Belt 3 weeks in advance National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

  4. Capabilities Demonstrated-- weekly WHO telecons (today) • Determined weather variables impacting meningitis incidence (RH) • Employing Thorpex-Tigge ensemble operationally • Providing weekly telecon 1- and 2-wk ahead forecast updates on meningitis belt status to WHO/countries Comparison with 2011 for the same week … … and the climatological state for the same week Today’s telecon 2-week ahead RH forecast (epidemiological week 17) for the ECMWF ensemble mean

  5. Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System

  6. Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)

  7. Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)

  8. Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)

  9. Capabilities Demonstrated-- next steps Climatology of West Africa SH SHL January July World Survey of Climatology, 1972

  10. Capabilities Demonstrated-- next steps

  11. Unique Datasets/Software Created Thorpex-Tigge UKMO CMC CMA ECMWF MeteoFrance NCAR NCEP JMA KMA NCDC IDD/LDM HTTP FTP Archive Centre CPTEC BoM Current Data Provider Unidata IDD/LDM Internet Data Distribution / Local Data Manager Commodity internet application to send and receive data

  12. Archive Status and Monitoring, Variability between providers

  13. Unique Datasets/Software Created Thorpex-Tigge -- fields

  14. Additional science … quantile regression Our application Fitting T quantiles using QR conditioned on: Ranked forecast ens ensemble mean ensemble median 4) ensemble stdev 5) Persistence

  15. Space-Time Continuum: Where are you? Mark with an X where your projects are now and where you anticipate being in the future 107 m 105 m X Spatial Scale 103 m 101 m min decade to century hour day season Time Scale

  16. Project title:Assessing the ensemble spread-error relationship

  17. a) b) c) d) e) f) h) g)

  18. b) a) c) d) f) e)

  19. b) a) c) d) f) e)

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