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Spatial Pressures on the Environment

Spatial Pressures on the Environment. Dr Edgar Morgenroth. Introduction. There is considerable debate and policy regarding GHG emissions, which is a long-term global problem. However, there is wide range of environmental issues that are local and that have immediate effects:

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Spatial Pressures on the Environment

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  1. Spatial Pressures on the Environment Dr Edgar Morgenroth

  2. Introduction • There is considerable debate and policy regarding GHG emissions, which is a long-term global problem. • However, there is wide range of environmental issues that are local and that have immediate effects: • Water quality (drinking water, rivers, coasts); • Air Quality; • Noise; • Litter & waste; • Congestion; • Visual Amenities/Disamenities • Light • Smell.

  3. Introduction • Local environmental issues are driven by: • The distribution of the population; • Changes in the population; • Behaviour and changes in behaviour; • The distribution of economic activity ; • Changes in economic activity; • Infrastructure • Geology • Topography.

  4. Population and Job Densities, 2006 Source: Morgenroth, 2009

  5. Population Change 1986-1991

  6. Population Change 1991-1996

  7. Population Change 1996-2002

  8. Population Change 2002-2006

  9. Population Change • Modelling the population change turns out to be difficult. • Just over 50% of the variation can be explained but the resulting model is not suitable for forecasting purposes: Growth in the previous period (+) Remoteness from population (-) Initial population (+) Population density (-) Distance from rail does not appear to be a driver for population growth!! Neither is distance from main roads (national primary, secondary and motorways).

  10. Septic Tanks – Percentage Change 1991 -2006

  11. UWWTP Capacity (% of population)

  12. UWWTP Capacity (% of population)

  13. Waste Water Treatment • The number of septic tanks has been allowed to increase very substantially in some parts of the country - Galway, Donegal, South-East and Midlands. • The capacity from urban waste water treatment plants relative to the population varies substantially across the country. In general there is over-capacity in the East and under-capacity in the West. • Undercapacity implies the use of other treatment options e.g. septic tanks. Obviously the distribution of the population is important in trying to reduce these; • Overcapacity comes at a cost and might reduce the efficiency of treatment plants.

  14. Livestock Units per HA (grazing animals, 2000)

  15. Annual Nitrogen from Grazing Livestock t/HA (2000)

  16. Share of Commuters using Rail (%)

  17. Distance from Rail Stations (km)

  18. What Drives Rail Use • Despite the apparent relationship with distance, empirical analysis shows that distance from rail stations (inc. LUAS), only explains 5% of the variation in rail share! • Distance from Dublin and population density explain a further 20% => Other spatially correlated factors drive the demand for rail travel: • Frequency of service (low on intercity routes by international standards see. see Morgenroth 2011); • Other quality variables such as speed; • multimodal accessibility • Alternatives (good road or bus).

  19. Conclusion • Most environmental pressures are spatial in nature as the arise in a particular place and if they diffuse they typically diffuse with a particular spatial pattern. • Modelling these issues is more difficult than modelling at the national scale due to: • Lack of data; • Complex spatial patterns; • The need to apply more sophisticated estimation procedures.

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