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How: National size estimations methods and process

How: National size estimations methods and process. Dr Apinun Aramrattana Size Estimation Stake-Holder Seminar 09.00-16.30, January 10 th , 2012 Richmond Hotel, Bangkok. T echnical working group for national estimation.

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How: National size estimations methods and process

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  1. How: National size estimations methods and process Dr Apinun Aramrattana Size Estimation Stake-Holder Seminar 09.00-16.30, January 10th, 2012 Richmond Hotel, Bangkok

  2. Technical working group for national estimation • A technical working group consisted of representatives from various organizations were formed: • Bureau of Epidemiology (BOE) • Chulalongkorn University • East-West Center • MEASURE • National AIDS Management Center (NAMC) • Research Institute for Health Sciences (RIHES) • Thailand MoPH– U.S. CDC Collaboration (TUC) • UNAIDS • UNFPA • Six meetings were held during September – December 2011 to discuss and find the best currently available estimates figures

  3. Steps in estimation for each population * • Determine utilization of the size estimation and when it will be needed • To determine program coverage and national cost estimates for programs • Regular national size estimation will be needed e.g. every two years • Define population and geographic area • Population is defined based on recent behavior (e.g. sex with another man in the past year, injecting within the past 2 years) • Area = national estimates (details on how to arrive at the national estimates will be discussed in other section) • Review existing data sources for estimation • Existing data sources for each population were reviewed. Limitations and strengths of each method were discussed.

  4. Steps in estimation for each population (continued)* • Compile existing data and collect additional data e.g. • Proportion of IDU, FSW, MSM behaviors reported in surveillance data over years • Additional mapping data on FSW & MSM from BMA and STI cluster • Discuss with key informants • Identify strengths and limitations from each source and how the existing data could be interpreted e.g. • Minimal or maximum estimates • Overall or sub-groups • Geographic coverage of estimation

  5. Steps in estimation for each population (continued) • Determine approaches and assumptions to be used for calculating national size estimates of each population • Triangulation of available data sources (e.g. survey data over years, literature review) to get a ‘fixing’ parameter as opposed to picking one estimation method that is currently available • Account for over or under estimates of the existing data source • Verify the estimates with other additional supporting information e.g. • IBBS among male military conscripts and vocational school student to examine distribution of estimated populations • AIDS case data

  6. Steps in estimation for each population (continued) • Identify follow up issues needed to be addressed for improving future national estimates e.g. • Additional questions on the IBBS survey to identify proportion of population/sub-groups of interest

  7. RDS Recruitment site Network Scal-up Recruitment site Number of participants by districts(Chiang Mai) Estimation: 1,500 (727-6000 N = 309 (Missing data = 1) Muang 228 N=409 in 8 areas (Chiang Mai) Estimation: 2,260 – 4,012 Number of participants in districts 0 1-10 11-20 21-40 >40 Omkoy 32

  8. Proposed final results: 2009 National IDU size estimation = 40,300

  9. MSM:Available Data Sources

  10. Sex workers (FSWs/ MSWs):Available Data Sources *from field experience

  11. Migrant workers:Available Data Sources *from field experience

  12. Overview of methods used & results

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