Snow, Ice and Permafrost Hazards Workshop June 13, 2011

1. Snow, Ice and Permafrost Hazards WorkshopJune 13, 2011 Pre-workshop Survey Results Sarah Trainor, UAF Lena Krutikov, UAF Nils Andreassen, ION KarlinItchoak, ION

2. Thank You for filling out the survey!! 23 Responses - 19 self identified State, Federal, Private, University ADEC (2) ADGGS (2) ADNR (4) Division of Mining, Land and Water Division of Oil and Gas ADOT (1) BOEMRE (1) NOAA, National Weather Service (1) NMFS (1) USCG (1) Alyeska Pipeline (1) Private Consulting (1) University of Alaska (UAA, UAF – 4)

3. Decisions related to snow, ice and permafrost in Alaska.

4. SNOW: • Amount, form, & pre-existing conditions for driving safety. • Snow pack, aufeis formation, temperatures. • What snow and ice information is available and applicable to hydropower staff in other regions? • ICE: • Long term trends in sea ice coverage in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas; length of the open water season on the OCS; percentage of ice coverage in the fall shoulder season. • Depth of burial for pilings and appropriate methods of installation; jacking or subsidence issues; spring breakup conditions; offshore platform fires or oil spills in non-open water conditions (broken ice); Cook Inlet ice effects on platforms and rig accessibility. • Extent of shorefast ice, ice shelf location, and depth of ice. Information Needs

5. PERMAFROST: • Prominent direction of the wind, water source and what caused the subsidence. • Local ground temperatures and variability with season and expected change with time. • Location and extent of ice-rich (thaw unstable) permafrost in existing and potential transportation corridors. • Forecasts and nowcasts from NWS and a sensor system for surface and subsurface conditions. • Near term and long term effects of cryospheric change in relation to geologic hazards to infrastructure. • HYDROLOGY • Location, discharge volumes. • Hydrology, vegetation information. • Effects of hydropower projects on NMFS trust resources - primarily anadromous and marine fish and marine mammals. Information Needs - continued

6. MIX/OTHER: • Climate data and change of climate. • Detailed current maps. • The extents of snow, ice and permafrost. How and why these extents are changing in space and time. What are predicted changes? • Snow depths, soil temperatures, active layer depths, erosion and subsidence in relation to gravel fill and remediation projects. • Logging results from hydrocarbon exploration wells, seismic reflection and seismic refraction data. • Short and long term effects of access, exploration, development and transportation activities for oil and gas resources development. Comparison of site restoration with active human efforts to natural restoration without intervention(s). • Climatic, geography, materials stability. Information Needs - continued

7. Awareness of current research

8. Collaboration with UA scientists

9. INTERNET: • General online search (7) • Specific websites (8) = ARLIS, NSSI, CRREL , USGS, UAF, NOAA - NSIDC, AEDIS • LITERATURE: • General (4) • Internal historical literature (1) • Library (3) = Geophysical Institute library, personal library, State Library System • Conference proceedings (1) • DIRECT COMMUNICATION: • Personal Contacts (4) = GW Scientific, CRREL, USGS, UAF • Phone calls (1) = UAF • Applicant (1) Where do you go for scientific information?

10. Best ways to receive information

11. Best ways to receive information - continued • OTHER: • in-person workshops (local are best) • AEDIS should be restored and updated • Podcasts; iTunes U • Science workshops hosted by industry • Direct interaction with colleagues on an ad-hoc basis. • I'd like to see a “who’s who” of cryospheric research - academia and agencies - NOAA, NASA, USGS, UAF, foreign universities, etc. It can't be a very large pool! • A well maintained, reliable, data rich web site - with occasional announcements on updates through list serves - like ArcticInfo

12. Has scientific research been useful to you in your planning or decision making?

13. SNOW/GLACIERS: • Roadway snow quality. • Snow sampling methods. • Glacier lake outburst floods. • Changes in glacier mass balance and extent • ICE: • Changes in sea ice. • Sea ice extent and character. • Forecasting ice shelf and thickness • Presence of permafrost in exploration wells. • The Joint Industry Project (JIP) looking at oil spill response in ice. Examples Photo by M. Druckenmiller

14. Examples - continued • PERMAFROST: • Changes in the depth of the active layer. • Forensic study of syngenetic permafrost in highway project. • CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: • Judging climate change impacts on coastal villages. • Climate change and ground temperatures • Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Hydropower in SE Alaska • OTHER: • Impacts from pollutants on water. • Constantly using research to advise the legislature, government, and industry on potential hazards and resource investments • Oil and gas activity impacts.

15. How did you learn about the research? INTERNET: General online search (4) Peer-reviewed publications (3) LITERATURE: General review (4) Industry Publications (1) SELF : My organization's own research “Sought and found funding for it, found the right researchers and had it conducted!” “Sponsored funding after being approached by a UAF researcher.”

16. How did you learn about the research? - continued • DIRECT COMMUNICATION: • Personal Contacts (2) = Colleagues, GW Scientific, Arctic Transportation Network, UAF • Applicant (1) • Conferences (3) = e.g., Alaska Marine Science Symposium • Webinars (1) = ACCAP • SNAP (1) • OTHER: • Wave Hindcast Model • Caribou Steering Committee

17. Were you directly involved with the research? If yes, who did you work with? UAF (10) USGS (2) GW Scientific (1) SNAP (1)

18. What makes research especially useful for your organization/ decision-making process? • Applicability to management decisions/ practical application • Relevance to current activity • Site specific • Direct involvement of practitioners

19. Communicating Uncertainty • “The most important aspect of useful research for decision making is relevance to current activity. That is, how can a given hazard be avoided or mitigated. Forecasting is somewhat useful, but full disclosure of assumptions and probabilistic distributions is critical. Non-science personnel seldom understand probability, nor, how it should be used in decision making. Nevertheless, they often use the 'mean' and call it good, sometimes with less-than-desirable results.”

20. Barriers to more effective use of the University of Alaska as a resource in your planning and decision-making? • COMMUNICATION! • What research is happening • Rapid publication of results • Coordination with agencies • Access to data and results • Research synthesis • Follow through • Transparency

21. Questions? Comments? Contact: sarah.trainor@alaska.edu 907- 474 -7878 Photo by M. Druckenmiller

22. Decisions - Examples • TRAVEL (10): • Ice roads • permitting, season opening, impact assessment, planning & construction • Roads • permafrost related foundation & surface treatments • treatments post snow and freezing rain • Conditions for travel via car or small aircraft • route selection, timing, tire selection • Location for safe operation of aircraft and cutters/boats

23. MAINTENANCE/MONITORING (11): Snow disposal management. Snow storage sites. Pipeline maintenance. Glacier lake outburst floods. Spring breakup flood monitoring. Glacier monitoring. Advocate for state-wide monitoring network to improve long-term projections of snow, glacial ice and permafrost. Recommend monitoring of snowpack and glacier mass balance in licensing procedure for hydropower projects. Examples – continued

24. REGULATORY/PERMITTING/SAFETY (11): Agency - water use discharge permitting. Issue approval to repair subsidence. Issue approval for ice roads. Safety: snowpack evaluation for safe mountain travel and rescue. Safety related to offshore pipelines. Approval of projects with risk of hazards to infrastructure and people. Dismantlement, Removal and Rehabilitation (DRR) of oil and gas activity sites. Review of applications for approval for surface land uses related to oil, gas and geothermal resource development Safety related to siting offshore drilling. Regulation of oil and gas activities in Alaska. Recommend projections of future precip, temp, snowpack, glacier mass balance and permafrost changes for new hydropower projects. Decide how to stabilize degrading permafrost to prevent clean water act violations. Treatment technology required in zone where subsurface organics present in discontinuous permafrost zone. Examples - continued

25. SITE EVALUATION/INFRASTRUCTURE (12): How are these changes impacting people, property or infrastructure? Where are changes in snow, ice and permafrost occurring? Site location for field measurements. Issue approval for snow fences. Foundation designs in permafrost. Construction: foundation selection. Construction. Seasonal operational planning. Location of supporting infrastructure. Type and operation of subsurface/surface infrastructure. Permafrost stability under my house. Presence or absence of near surface permafrost. Examples - continued

26. OTHER (7): Oil spill response decisions. Oil discharge prevention and contingency plans. What other physical processes are involved or impacted in association with these changes? Topics for university teaching. Material sources in permafrost conditions. Probability of gas hydrate occurrence on Alaska continental shelf. Recreation based on snow conditions. Snow thickness and its insulation capacity. Liquid residual handling methods. Examples - continued

27. SNOW & GLACIER PROJECTS: • Snow depth data collection methods. • Glacier related hazards. • Periglacialchanges and associated hazards. • Snow modeling input in surface energy balance modeling • Tundra travel conditions • PERMAFROST PROJECTS: • Permafrost slope stability analysis and monitoring (AUTC) • Permafrost mapping and modeling in parts of interior Alaska (pipeline corridor) • Western Alaska permafrost project • Tundra travel conditions Collaborative Projects

28. SNOW PROJECTS: • Snow depth data collection methods. • Snow modeling input in surface energy balance modeling • Tundra travel conditions • PERMAFROST PROJECTS: • Permafrost slope stability analysis and monitoring (AUTC) • Permafrost mapping and modeling in parts of interior Alaska (pipeline corridor) • Western Alaska permafrost project • Tundra travel conditions • OTHER PROJECTS: • Energy Security Collaborative Projects - continued

29. GLACIER PROJECTS: • Glacier related hazards. • Periglacial changes and associated hazards. • ICE PROJECTS: • Sea ice atlas • River ice safety • Timing of river ice breakup with DGGS, SNAP, ASF and INE • ENGINEERING PROJECTS: • UAA School of Engineering projects: numerous and diverse. • Hydroelectric power facilities in Southeast Alaska • Share information developed in our engineering practice from across the state. Collaborative Projects - continued

30. Collaborations CRREL (2) UAF (24) UAA (1) SNAP & ACCAP (2) DGGS (1)

31. Extra glacier images from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use

32. Extra permafrost images from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use

33. Extra snow images from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use

34. Extra sea ice images from NOAA