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Thoughts for the Wrap-Up Discussion

Thoughts for the Wrap-Up Discussion. Allison Thomson and Kate Calvin 29 September 2011 Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum. Common Themes. Communication with decision makers Risk Uncertainty

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Thoughts for the Wrap-Up Discussion

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  1. Thoughts for the Wrap-Up Discussion Allison Thomson and Kate Calvin 29 September 2011 Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum

  2. Common Themes • Communication with decision makers • Risk • Uncertainty • Model evaluation and intercomparison – CMIP, AgMIP, maybe ForMIP coming soon? • Quality of data, especially for international land use and agriculture modeling (yields, land cover, prices, bioenergy yields) • Importance of thresholds and extremes – in particular temperature extremes and crop physiological limits • Autonomous adaptations vs. planned adaptations • How do you plan for/model additional adaptation • Need to consider adaptation and mitigation together

  3. Areas of future research • Bioenergy and indirect LUC • Bio for electricity as well as liquid fuels • Role of residues and trade-off with soil conservation • Valuation of terrestrial mitigation with uncertainty – how to determine the value of an offset? • What is the land supply? • Future changes in productivity due to “technology” – what’s happening, what’s possible, role of the public sector in investing • Crop prices projected by economic models – will the cost of food rise due to GHG mitigation? • Integration of ag-forest-economics-climate all in one framework • Need for consistency in scenarios and assumptions • Livestock – importance of pasture and pasture management in LUC driven by introduction of bioenergy crops • Soils

  4. Questions for discussion • Role of different approaches – simpler statistical models vs. data intensive process models? • The role of gov’t, need for institutions that do decision making in the right way for uncertain information was raised – but this is (mostly) out of our control. How do researchers help the government that we have make decisions under uncertainty? • USFS already actively considering climate change mitigation and adaptation in management; USDA formulating plans. What do they need from us? • What is the role of disturbance in forest mitigation and adaptation? • Can we begin to model the feedbacks from economic models back through models of the physical system?

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