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Three Eras of Technology Foresight

Three Eras of Technology Foresight. Harold A. Linstone University Professor Emeritus of Systems Science Portland State University Linstoneh@aol.com. TECHNOLOGY. The Agricultural Era U.S. farm labor force 1790: 90%; 1970 4%.

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Three Eras of Technology Foresight

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  1. Three Eras of Technology Foresight Harold A. Linstone University Professor Emeritus of Systems Science Portland State University Linstoneh@aol.com

  2. TECHNOLOGY The Agricultural Era U.S. farm labor force 1790: 90%; 1970 4% 1. The Industrial Era 1800-1970 2. The Information Era 1970-2024 Computers Communications Networks 3. The Molecular Era 2024-2080Biotechnology Nanotechnology Materials Science

  3. K WAVES 1800-2025

  4. Media facebook, desktop publishing • Technology Distributed (internet) • Religion small sects • Conflict individual can incite protests “Everyman as Faust” • Governance tribalism, separation • Corporations product customization – in sales: Amazon, Netflix - in manufacturing.: 3D printing CNN, giant media conglomerates Centralized (coal, oil, nuclear energy) quasi-global “Islamic nation” social networks can rapidly spread and amplify local to global scale integration (EU) global markets -McDonald, Starbucks GlocalizationLocalGlobal

  5. New Concepts 1. Complexity science –> nonlinear complex adaptive systems (CAS) Phase states: stable, stably oscillating, chaotic with predictable boundaries, and unstable Many interacting elements (agents), simple rules agents interact locally (cooperating/competing) -> their behavior cannot be decomposed result: self-organizing patterns and emergence

  6. A cascade of S curves representing major technological shifts

  7. New Concepts 2. Multiple perspectives To bridge the gap between models and the real world T: the technical perspective O: the organizational/institutional perspective P: the personal/individual perspective Each offers insights not attainable with the others. O and P vital for link to action.

  8. TOP World view science/technologygroup/institution individual, self problem solvingprocess, action power, prestige Ethical basis objectivityfairness, justice morality Mode of inquiryanalysissatisficing intuition observationbargaining learning cause - effectagendachallenge - response Planning horizon far - no discounting moderate discounting high discounting for most Uncertainty view uncertainties noteduncertainties used aversion to uncertainty Risk criteria logical soundnesspolitical acceptability aversion to loss Scenarios exploratorypreferable visionary

  9. A Comparison of Eras

  10. Four Characteristics • 1. Pervasive, small an invisible technical infrastructure • 2. Unlimited reach IT > everything becomes information MT > everything controllable at the molecular level

  11. + • 3. Specificity MT > custom tailored materials, drugs and sensors • 4. Engineering for the human mind as well as the body IT, MT > prostheses to extend capabilities implantable biocomputers (“molecular doctors”)

  12. IT + MT: Impacts on TFA • CAS phase states– chaos: forecast limits. emergence • TOP: O and P essential Technology-basedtoscience-based foresight Traditionaltobiology-based foresight Exploratorytonormative foresight Foresight to rapid adaptability and robust planning

  13. IT and MT Eras: More implications Governments becoming unmanageable-> The social rate of change may for a while be faster than the technological rate Need to rebalance globalization  localization centralization  decentralization Need to balance perspectives

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