Public Opinion and Polling

1. Public Opinion and Polling Unit 3 AP Government

2. Public Opinion • Public Opinion: “The opinions held by private persons which government feels it prudent to heed”

3. Who are the “Public” in Public Opinion Polls?? 1. The Elite • Those with disproportionate amount of political resources. • They raise issues and help set national agenda. • They influence the resolution of issues. 2. The Attentives: • Those with an active interest in government and politics 3. The Masses • Those with little interest in government and politics.

4. Understanding Public Opinion • Most of the American public shows little awareness and interest in politics. • Surveys show substantial lack of political knowledge on part of public: • Identifying political figures • Identifying key issues

5. Important Questions to Ponder • Who is in charge of creating policy? • How does Public Opinion Become Policy? • Are there politics involved? • How is reliable information gathered? • To whom should the “government” listen to?

6. How is Public Opinion Measured? • By elections • By Polls

7. How is Public Opinion Measured? • By elections • Initiatives (allow citizens to propose legislation and submit it to popular vote.) • Referendums (allows legislatures to submit proposed legislation for popular approval.) • Party positions on issues • By Polls • By straw polls • Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinions • By scientific polls • Uses representative sampling methods 

8. Problems with these Methods • Elections • Not accurate because only voters participate • More in Unit 4! • Polling • By straw polls • No sampling makes them NOT accurate • By scientific polls • Most are accurate but will have margin of error which can mislead in close races 

9. Four Uses of Scientific Polls • Inform the public. • Inform candidates. • Inform office-holders. • Make election night predictions.

10. 1st Public Opinion Poll • The first public opinion research goes back to July 24, 1824 (For Presidential Election) • The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian issued a report of a straw vote done at Wilmington, Del., "without discrimination of parties." • Andrew Jackson received 335 votes • John Quincy Adams, 169 votes • Henry Clay, 19 votes • William H. Crawford, 9 votes So…Who won in November??

11. The Gallup Poll • Dr. George Gallup predicted the outcome of the 1936 presidential election as a victory of Roosevelt over Landon with an error of 6.8 percent. • His method was known as “quota" sampling • Thereafter Gallup gained fame and his scientific method became prevalent in polling.

12. The Gallup Poll • Gallup made an error in predicting the 1948 presidential election • The prediction that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman by anywhere from five to fifteen percentage points in 1948. • When Truman actually won by more than four percentage points, Gallup and polling was under attack.

13. “New” Polling Methods • In the 1956 election, Gallup abandoned "quota" sampling, and switched to a new method using random samplings • Random or probability sampling occurs when everyone in population being surveyed has an equal chance to be sampled • Much more accurate

14. How is a Scientific Poll Created? • Define the “universe” (the population to be measured) • National polls typically require 1000-2000 respondents. • Sampling error: The margin of error is expressed in +/- terms. • Can reduce sampling error by adding more respondents • In other words…Take random samples WHERE everyone has an equal chance of being included • Example: Home Room v AP Government classes

15. Different Types of Scientific Polls • Telephone • Random calls • In-Person • Door-to-door, surveys in malls, shopping centers, movie theatres, and “man on the street” questionnaires • Exit Polls • Taken after elections when voters “exit” the polling place • Tracking Polls • Shows results of an issue over time

16. Problems of Polling • Telephone • Does not include cell phones • In-Person • Who stops in the Mall or opens doors these days??? • Exit Polls • Who stops to talk to pollsters after elections? • 2004 election • Tracking • Taken out of context they make no more sense than a single frame from a movie.

17. Abuses of Polls • “Horse race” mentality emphasized during campaigns at expense of issues. • No real story…just what the polls say • In a horse race world, horse race polls can tell you who’s ahead but not why. • Example: “The strategies range from Rep. Richard A. Gephardt’s one-state last stand in Iowa to Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman’s rapid-fire attacks on Dean to retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark’s national campaign on electability. All of them depend on Dean stumbling during the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary the following week.” • This use of polls panders to candidates and office-holders.

18. Push Poll Questions • Questions that are deliberately phrased to give information to public • Usually negative • Would you be more or less likely to support Doug Goehring if you knew he was against ethanol and didn't support farmers? • Would you be more or less likely to support Doug Goehring if you knew he was head of Nodak Mutual when it was under state investigation and that the state had to take it over because of his leadership?

19. The Most Famous Push Poll Question • Voters in South Carolina reportedly were asked before the 2000 Republican primary: • "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?” • The allegation had no substance, but planted the idea of undisclosed allegations in the minds of thousands of primary voters. • McCain and his wife had in fact adopted a Bangladeshi girl.)

20. The Newest Push Poll Tactic-The Robo-Call • The Obama campaign has released a recording (mp3) it says came from a Nevadan's answering machine of an anonymous robocall that criticizes Obama for taking money from special interests while repeating, four times, his rarely used middle name: "Hussein." • "I'm calling with some important information about Barack Hussein Obama," the call begins, before saying that  "Barack Hussein Obama says he doesn't take money from Washington lobbyists or special interest groups but the record is clear that he does." • After mentioning his full name once more, the call concludes: • "You just can't take a chance on Barack Hussein Obama.“ http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Robocall_trashes_Barack_Hussein_Obama.html

21. New Rule Prohibiting Unwanted "Robocalls" Takes Effect on September 1, 2009 • The Federal Trade Commission will now prohibit prerecorded commercial telemarketing calls to consumers unless the telemarketer has obtained permission in writing from consumers who want to receive such calls. • Calls not covered by the TSR include: • Those from politicians, banks, telephone carriers, and most charitable organizations • The new prohibition on prerecorded messages does not apply to certain healthcare messages. • The new rule prohibits telemarketing robocalls to consumers whether or not they previously have done business with the seller.

22. Creating an Accurate Poll • You must have: • Carefully Worded Questions • No bias and clearly differentiated alternatives • A poll that actually seeks the truth • Not “Advocacy” and ‘Push Polls’ which try to influence the outcome • Look for reliable pollsters- not party polls • Remember… • Polls are just a snapshot and may be wrong!!! • Example- 2004 Exit Polls and Election of 1948

23. Optional Public Opinion Project* • You will create a political survey alone or with a small group. (Can be for SEG 3 or SEG 4) • One Person- Create a survey of 3 questions about same topic • Small Group (2-5 people) - Create a survey of 10 questions about 2-5 topics • Please be specific- yes/no questions are easiest! • Example: • “Do you believe gay marriage should be legal in the United States?” Full Details on my Blog http://waltonhigh.typepad.com/ms_boyd/ **Please see me for question approval.

24. Public Opinion • Read Chapter 11!