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OECD International Futures Programme

OECD International Futures Programme. Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy: Possibility Space Scenarios & 21st Century Transitions. Post-Conference Workshop Washington DC, January 29, 2003. Riel Miller.

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OECD International Futures Programme

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  1. OECD International Futures Programme Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy: Possibility Space Scenarios & 21st Century Transitions Post-Conference Workshop Washington DC, January 29, 2003 Riel Miller

  2. “All the bad predictions have the same buried assumption – the future will be just like the present but better. But the future is not like the past.”William Wulf, Jan. 28, 2003

  3. Pushing the premises • Continuity versus transition: • Could incremental radical change, facilitated by IT and other new tools, transform OECD societies over the next thirty years? • Trends versus possibilities: • Can we begin to rigorously imagine disjuncture in ways that point to how policy needs to break with the past?

  4. Presentation outline A.21st Century Transitions: Possibility map example B. Implications for policy & research

  5. Technology Economy Society Governance A. 21st Century Transitions:A possibility map example • Incremental radicalism transforms everyday life • Within one or two generations • Disrupts most institutions • Alters culture & values

  6. Technology possibility space Technological dynamism • Pervasive tools • Part of daily life • Tools simplify & enable complexity • Don’t think of the tool, think of its use • Contingent on socio-economic change “Technology is not destiny”

  7. Technology possibility space Simple “Solid MP3” printer Ease of use Prototype printer Difficult Limited & homogeneous Unlimited & heterogeneous Range of uses

  8. Economic dynamism Economic possibility space • Nature of production & consumption • Organisational attributes of wealth creation • Predominant type of economic activity “Beyond mass-production and consumption”

  9. A learning economy & society Artist Future consumer/ producer - cyber creator Fusing of supply & demand Unpredictable tasks - creativity Empowered team-worker, informed shopper Mass-era worker and consumer Predictable tasks - repetition Freedom to initiate Imposed Authority

  10. Social dynamism Social possibility space • Attributes of identity: • sources • structure • dynamics • Patterns of social status • Ecology of culture

  11. Identity & choice Hetero-geneous/small Learning society Scale of social affiliation /identity Homo-geneous /large Mass-era Less choice Decisions - what, where, when, with whom, how More choice Beyond the dualism of individual vs collective

  12. Governance possibility space Dynamic Governance Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity • Distribution of power • Primary organisational forms • Resilience (risk handling & perception) • Pace of decision making • Extent to which best information is used • Networking capacity - right balance between homogeneity & heterogeneity

  13. Capacity to make & implement decisions

  14. Before and after • Wealth, rules, governance, values • Physical/financial vs human capital • Simple vs complex property rights • Ex-ante vs real-time allocation of power • Implementation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights • Quality of life • Mass production vs production for self/community • Life organized for work vs work organized for life • Hierarchy vs autonomy • Imposed identity vs self-generated identity • Sen’s definition of “freedom”

  15. B. Implications of possibility space analysis for public policy • Allows visioning radical changes • Offers systemic perspective • Emphasizes synergies & the contingent nature of large scale/long-run change • Focuses policy intervention • Poses clearer options • Allows for multiple paths to similar outcome

  16. Are we in a period of transition or consolidation? • Negative indicators of transition: • Extreme polarization • Authority gaps • Institutional decay • Identity crises • Positive indicators of transition: • New spaces for innovation to succeed • New networks become sustainable • Potential greater than actual • Does consolidation seem to be a feasible strategy?

  17. Implications of 21st Century Transitions for policy • Goals - encouraging transition • Creativity & greater capacity to govern • Common values & heterogeneity of expression • Roles - facilitating re-composition • Proliferation of sources • Diffusion of the peripheral • Methods - linking form & function • Experimentalism • Learning by doing (means as ends, process as product)

  18. Implications of 21st Century Transitions for policy Policies that do not work: • Doing no harm - dot.com aftermath • Ignoring the value of the commons • Protecting old business models • Not establishing level playing fields • Abdicating new governance challenges

  19. Implications of 21st Century Transitions for research • Goals - explore transition • Rigorous assessment of plausible, not just probable • Explore synergy & dissonance; positive & negative role of conflict/cooperation, divergence/convergence • Role - expand and sharpen debate on possible, probable & desirable long-run futures • Methods - history of the future & cross-discipline analysis • Involve a wider range of views & experiments • Systematically comb the periphery for seeds of tomorrow’s diversity

  20. Governance Technology Economy Society Thank youwww.oecd.org/futuresriel.miller@oecd.org Money

  21. Cross-cutting guidelines for promoting 21st Century Transitions • Areas for new rules, standards & conventions: • Validation & recognition of property & assets • Building trust & common languages • Metrics, benchmarks • Encourage quality of opportunity by focusing on: • Focus on assets - human & social capital • Leading & lagging edges - dynamic gaps • Inclusion through diversification

  22. Making the future a discipline • How is it that each morning when we wake up the world around us restarts, functioning – at least most of the time – much as it did the day before? • What are the plausible ways that daily life might be reproduced in the future? “history of the future”

  23. Five axioms • Axiom 1 • uncertainty increases with time • Axiom 2 • change is both absolute and relative • Axiom 3 • over time metrics and benchmarks change • Axiom 4 • change depends on capacity, capacity changes over time • Axiom 5 • imagination grounded in explicit assumptions

  24. “Hubris of the now” • Slow vs fast • Incremental vs radical • Voluntary vs involuntary • Preservationism vs dynamism

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