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Is the BRI a game-changer? Connectivity, the Global Value Chain

Is the BRI a game-changer? Connectivity, the Global Value Chain and the Rise of China as a New Centre of the World Economy? J-C Defraigne UCLouvain Saint-Louis, IEE Louvain School of Management June 2019.

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Is the BRI a game-changer? Connectivity, the Global Value Chain

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  1. Is the BRI a game-changer? Connectivity, the Global Value Chain and the Rise of China as a New Centre of the World Economy? J-C Defraigne UCLouvain Saint-Louis, IEE Louvain School of Management June 2019

  2. BRI: a defensivestrategy to integrate the Eurasian continent and itsneighborhood Goingwest to escape the US pivot to Asia (Wang Jisi) and to reduce the Malacca straight’sdilemma To be able to check the capacity of advancedeconomies (The US, the EU and Japan) to impose traderulesthrough large regional (TPP, TTIP, EU Mercosur) or bilateraltradeagreeements To integratebetterChina’s Western provinces To ensuremarketaccess to Europe by non institutionnalmeans: infrastructure and de facto economicintegration To generate more outlets for Chinesemanufacturing in order to reduceovercapacities?

  3. Assessing the BRI potentialeffects Quantitative approach: how big is BRI? Data limitation A comparison with two other regional integration strategies involving infrastructure projects, exports platform,ODA and FDI: Japan “flying geese” in Southeast Asia 1985-1996 The EU enlargement toward Eastern Europe 2000-2007 Can BRI foster the technological upgrading of recipient countries and their insertions in IPNs? To what extent the BRI could modify existing economic relations between the existing centres and the peripheries in East Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe?

  4. Table 1. BRI, Marshall Plan, Flying geese wave and EU enlargement funds compared Sources: Defraigne 2019, Maddison Project 2008, OECD 2019, Eurostat 2019, James 2003, Broadberry & Rourke 2010, Berend 2009, IMF 2019, Hillman 2018

  5. Exports in blue imports in red Source: OEC 2019

  6. Export structure of important BRI recipient countries: Pakistan

  7. Export structure of important BRI recipient countries: Malaysia

  8. Export structure of important BRI recipient countries: Serbia

  9. Export structure of important “flying geese” financial flows recipient countries: Thailand

  10. Export structure of important “flying geese” financial flows recipient countries: Malaysia

  11. Export structures of pre-accession EU financial flows recipient countries: Czech Republic

  12. Export structures of pre-accession EU financial flows recipient countries: Hungary

  13. Export structures of pre-accession EU financial flows recipient countries: Romania

  14. Costs of rail, sea and air transport from China to Europe in 2017(source: Schramm & Zhang 2018)

  15. Percentage of GDP spent on R&D (source: World Bank 2019)

  16. Table 20. High-tech exports in billions of current dollars (source: World Bank 2019)

  17. Medium and high-tech share of total manufactured exports (source: World Bank 2019)

  18. Royalties in millions of current dollars (source: World Bank 2019)

  19. GDP per capita in current dollars (source: World Bank 2019)

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