Presentation Transcript

1. Third-Quarter 2012 Market Overview Presented by Matthew A. Parsons525 N 9th St., Cottage Grove, Oregon 97424 (541) 942-7300
2. Economic Summary: Third-Quarter 2012 Milestones The Federal Reserve (the Fed) initiates quantitative easing aimed at mortgages, job creation European Central Bank (ECB) plans unlimited bond-buying program Spain prepares to seek rescue funding from eurozone Presidential campaign heats up ahead of November elections Abrupt $3 drop in oil prices triggers CFTC inquiry German court clears way for European Stability Mechanism Treasury’s AIG stock sale nets taxpayers $12.4 billion profit European parliament panel backs high-frequency trading restrictions Paul Ryan picked by Romney as vice presidential candidate Fiscal cliff looms, as election nears Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
3. S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average: Third Quarter of 2012 Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
4. Economic Themes Housing Credit and banking Fixed income Employment Consumer behavior Business and manufacturing activity Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
5. Housing: Prices and Supply
6. Housing: Homes Foreclosed
7. Housing: Prices and Supply
8. Housing: Price-to-Rent Ratio
9. Credit and Banking
10. Credit and Banking continued
11. Fixed Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
12. Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
13. Fixed Income continued Announcement Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
14. Employment Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg
15. Employment continued
16. Employment continued
17. Employment continued Source: BLS/Commonwealth Investment Research
18. Business and Manufacturing Activity
19. Business and Manufacturing Activity continued Strong move!
20. Business and Manufacturing Activity continued
21. Europe – Housing in Spain 8.3% YoY decline Source: Banco de Espana/Commonwealth Investment Research
22. Conclusions Job growth was strong in the third quarter; unemployment fell to 7.8 percent. The U.S. economy remained strong despite the European crisis. Inflation is not a large concern, for now. ISM moved back into positive territory. Dividend sectors, especially REITs, are relatively expensive. Decreased savings and credit expansion could create a tailwind for the economy. Home prices continue to move higher. Interbank lending tensions eased, creating a favorablecredit environment.
23. Looking Forward . . . Key themes to monitor Employment improvement necessary for sustained recovery Earnings season for the third quarter (beat or miss estimates?) Impact of quantitative easing on housing market European debt crisis: is it time to starting deploying capital,given valuations? Direction of ISM and Labor indices over coming months Iranian sanctions and Middle East tensions Election results and impact on taxes Fiscal cliff: is it overdone? Housing market recovery
24. Disclosure Investing involves risks, including loss of principal amount invested due to market fluctuations. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade tax-exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, in the U.S. domestic market. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The commodities industries can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.