5.1 TOC Transfer to Logframe & Indicators

1. 5.1 TOC Transfer to Logframe & Indicators

2. The TOC Process Data collection and analysis (identify problems) Use causal analysis to create a problem tree Create a solution tree and identify pathways of change Identify assumptions and articulate rationales Prioritize outcomes the project will address • Clearly outline who will address other outcomes Identify intervention outputs Transfer the TOC to the logframe Identify indicators for TOC components Complete complementary documentation Review annually at minimum You are here !

3. Transferring the TOC to a FFP Logframe

4. Theory of Change vs. Logframe • Logframe • Specific: Shows only the specific outcomes a project will directly address • Linear and structured • Lists assumptions, indicators, and their data sources • Primarily a tool to provide a framework for an M&E system that assures accountability. • Theory of Change • Broad: Shows all domains and pathways needed to reach a goal, including those a project will not directly address. • Non-linear and adaptive • Describes and supports with evidence assumptions and rationales for linkages along causal pathways • Helpful tool for understanding “the big picture”, reflecting, learning, adapting.

5. Transferring the TOC to a FFP Logframe Source: USAID 2016

6. Helpful tips for transfer Save a copy of the TOC and number using logframe format

7. Helpful tips for transfer • DO NOT NUMBER OUTCOMES PRODUCED BY OTHER ACTORS.

8. Helpful tips for transfer How to number outcomes that are preconditions for more than one outcome above?

9. Helpful tips for transfer Match numbering to cross-purpose linkages.

10. Transferring the TOC to a Logframe Source: USAID 2016

11. Transferring the TOC to a Logframe Source: USAID 2016

12. Sample logframe with assumptions Assumption that the efforts of external actors will be achieved External Assumptions: existing conditions that we expect will remain true for the LOA

13. Identify Indicators for TOC Components

14. TOC Indicators Quantitative OR qualitative variables, factors, or other criteria that: Tell us how to recognize achievement at each step in the TOC pathways Verify whether intended changes actually occurred

15. Indicator types and levels in the TOC

16. Selecting TOC Indicators In FFP-funded DFSAs: • Start by taking required and RIA FFP Baseline and Annual indicators and exploring how they overlay your TOC diagram • After mapping all applicable FFP indicators, start at the bottom of the TOC diagram and identify all outputs that do not have indicators. Identify at least one indicator for every output that will transfer to the logframe.

17. Selecting TOC Indicators Next, rigorously move up each pathway and identify: Outcomes that do not have any OUTCOME indicator Outcomes for which change is only captured by baseline & endline surveys. Outcomes that do not have sufficient indicators to measure change

18. Selecting TOC Indicators Devise some type of indicator to fill all gaps. Must be able to understand if change is occurring as predicted, and while there is still time to redirect implementation, if necessary. Indicators do not necessarily need to be quantitative factors obtained through annual surveys. -may be qualitative factors, or other criteria that provide objective, factual evidence.

19. Criteria for deciding WHAT to measure Balance: needed information vs. useful information Data that have most potential to redirect action Balance: need to know vs. ability to find out Remember context !

20. Documenting Indicators Document indicators in the logframe. You do not need to insert indicators in the TOC diagram for FFP. • Some practitioners find it helpful to have an internal version of the TOC with indicators. FFP requires each purpose, sub-purpose, outcome and output transferred to the logframe to have a quantitative or qualitative indicator.

21. Small Group Exercise

22. Instructions – Numbering the TOC Start with one purpose and number only the outcomes that directly feed into that purpose. These are your sub-purposes. Number only the outcomes that directly feed into one sub-purpose. Do not number outcomes produced by other actors Repeat the process for each sub-purpose until all outcomes that the project will produce are numbered. If time, repeat steps 3 through 4 for each Purpose. Once all Purpose pathways are numbered, re-number all the cross-purpose linkages. When one outcome is a precondition for several outcomes above it, try to reach consensus among your team about which outcome stream it primarily contributes to and number it accordingly.

23. Instructions - Transferring TOC to Logframe Open Tool 5.1_logframe on your USB. Begin to enter the TOC components into the logframe in the same hierarchy as displayed in the TOC. Use the exact same wording and numbering. When you have entered the entire pathway that explains Purpose 1, then move on to Purpose 2, following that pathway all the way down to outputs. Enter assumptions in the last column of the logframe. Enter an assumption on the same logframe row as the outcome for which it is a precondition.

24. Instructions - Transferring TOC to Logframe Outcomes produced by external actors: • Enter an assumption in the logframe stating they will achieve the outcome For outcomes that are preconditions for more than one outcome above, make a small note in the logframe narrative column. • For example, 1.1.2. Gender-equitable access to entrepreneurial & technical training increased (also contributes to 1.1.1.1)

25. Instructions – Mapping Indicators to the TOC Project your TOC diagram on the wall. Use Handouts 5.1a (and 5.1d and 5.1e on the USB) to identify required and RIA FFP indicators that are relevant to your Activity. Map all of them onto the projected TOC diagram. Choose one pathway identify all outputs that do not have an indicator. On the projected diagram, put a sticky note over them as a reminder that there is a gap.

26. Instructions – Mapping Indicators to the TOC Move rigorously up the pathway and identify: Outcomes that do not have any OUTCOME indicator Outcomes for which change is only captured by baseline & endline surveys. Outcomes that do not have sufficient indicators to measure change • If time permits, choose several of the outcomes with indicator gaps and craft strong indicators for them. Make sure to identify the target population for the indicator if it differs from the impact population.