Dutch bargain or Dutch treat?

1. Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands Dutch bargainor Dutch treat?

2. Why projections ? Assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings If not, what further measures/policies are needed? Input for modeling future health and ecosystem impacts. Latter is used for spatial planning procedures. Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

3. How projections ? projection ≠ prediction; projections are scenario’s Method: • Eproj = Aproj * ef proj • Eproj = possible future Emission • Aproj = possible future Activity • ef proj = possible future Emission Factor Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

4. Scenario’s envisaged International co-operation Strong Europe SE Global Economy GE Private responsibility Public responsibility Transatlantic Market TM Regional Communities RC National sovereignty Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

5. History of projections • Lessons from the past • Late eighties “Concerns for tomorrow” • 1989-2006: 6 Environmental outlooks • Quality of projections? What were the problems? Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

6. Historical trend Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

7. Policy and measures starting point is ‘concrete’ policy, meaning • sufficiently operational, • accompanied by instruments, • funded, • laid down in an official document and • for which powers have been granted. • Following this CLE, an Additional Measures scenario is constructed Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

8. Overview of policy: transport • Emission standards for (road) transport • BPM (car and motorcycle); purchase tax differentiation by relative energy efficiency • sulphur level standards for fuels Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

9. Overview of policy: agriculture • Compulsory use of manure storage covers • Compulsory low-emission application of manure to land • Low-emission livestock housing • Use standards (manure policy) • BEES1 to reduce NOx emissions in glasshouse horticulture • 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

10. Overview of policy: other • NOx ETS • 1BEES • Dutch Emissions Guidelines (NeR) • IPPC-BAT • Oil to gas fuel switch • NMVOC Reduction Plan • Solvents Decree and • Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions • 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

11. Measures in the pipeline • SO2 agreements with refineries and energy producers • IPPC-BAT • Oil to gas fuel switch • NMVOC Reduction Plan • Solvents Decree and • Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions • 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

12. Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

13. Latest projections • Reference Projections Energy and Emissions 2005-2020 • Two scenarios picked for reference projections: • Global Economy and Strong Europe. Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

14. Input for projections • growth factors for different sectors from CPB (economical), LEI (agricultural), FOI (industry), ECN (energy) and NEAA (population, socio-economic, etc.) • technological advancements from various international and national institutes (e.g. BREF documents) Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

15. 2050 Workshop • request for ‘aspirational’ scenario for 2050. • TFIAM seeking co-operation with other groups. • national experts available who could share experiences on longer term scenario building ‘backcasting’ the necessary steps. • ‘2050-workshop’ end 2008 with goal to publish a paper in spring 2009. • link with climate modeling strategies please contact rob.maas@mnp.nl Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections

16. Thank you ! Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections