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Brexit Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK

Brexit Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that this work is joint with coauthors Federica Liberini, Eugenio Proto, and Michela Redoano. What caused the Brexit decision?. Latest YouGov Data. Latest YouGov Data.

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Brexit Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK

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  1. Brexit Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that this work is joint with coauthors Federica Liberini, Eugenio Proto, and Michela Redoano.

  2. What caused the Brexit decision?

  3. Latest YouGov Data

  4. Latest YouGov Data • In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? Feb 2018August 2016 RIGHT 43% 44% WRONG 44% 44% DON’T KNOW 12% 11%

  5. Hypothesis 1

  6. Hypothesis 1 The old caused it.

  7. Hypothesis 1 The old caused it.

  8. Hypothesis 1 The old caused it.

  9. Hypothesis 1 The old caused it.

  10. "Why did millions vote to leave? …the big gap between those over 50 and those below in support for Leave." Ben Chu, The Independent, 26 June 2016

  11. Hypothesis 2

  12. Hypothesis 2 Brits are anti-foreigner.

  13. Hypothesis 2 Brits are anti-foreigner.

  14. Hypothesis 2 Brits are anti-foreigner.

  15. Hypothesis 3

  16. Hypothesis 3 Brits felt financially hard-up, and lashed out at the EU.

  17. Hypothesis 3 Brits felt financially hard-up, and lashed out at the EU.

  18. "I don’t think Brexit would have happened if it hadn’t been for the political and economic events of the preceding 10 years. People…felt squeezed." Alistair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, The Guardian, 13 September 2017

  19. "I don’t think Brexit would have happened if it hadn’t been for the political and economic events of the preceding 10 years. People…felt squeezed." Alistair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, The Guardian, 13 September 2017

  20. We examine these ideas

  21. We examine these ideas The source of data is Understanding Society 2016. A random sample of 8000 people in the run-up to June 23rd.

  22. Probability of voting Brexit = f(age, income, gender, education, region, etc)

  23. Question Wording ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ Options • 1 Remain a member of the European Union • 2 Leave the European Union

  24. We conclude that Brexit:

  25. We conclude that Brexit: was not really about the old outvoting the young

  26. We conclude that Brexit: was not really about the old outvoting the young was not really about people being anti-foreigner.

  27. We find: Only the very young were hugely Remain.

  28. The age effect on Leavers

  29. Not predominantly about ‘foreigners’

  30. Not predominantly about ‘foreigners’ Being ‘white British’ led to people voting about 6 percentage points more in favour of Leave.

  31. Instead:

  32. A key predictor turns out to be:

  33. A key predictor turns out to be: Question wording: • How well would you say you yourself are managing financially these days? Would you say you are...

  34. A key predictor turns out to be: • Living comfortably • Doing alright • Just about getting by • Finding it quite difficult • Finding it very difficult

  35. A key predictor turns out to be: • Living comfortably • Doing alright • Just about getting by • Finding it quite difficult • Finding it very difficult

  36. A key predictor turns out to be: • Living comfortably • Doing alright • Just about getting by • Finding it quite difficult • Finding it very difficult

  37. A key predictor turns out to be: • Living comfortably • Doing alright • Just about getting by • Finding it quite difficult • Finding it very difficult

  38. A key predictor turns out to be: • Living comfortably • Doing alright • Just about getting by • Finding it quite difficult • Finding it very difficult

  39. A key predictor turns out to be: • Living comfortably • Doing alright • Just about getting by • Finding it quite difficult • Finding it very difficult

  40. Britain’s actual feelings in 2016

  41. Britain’s actual feelings in 2016 • Living comfortably (35.0% of people) • Doing alright (39.7%) • Just about getting by (19.0%) • Finding it quite difficult (4.7%) • Finding it very difficult (1.6%)

  42. Real wages in the UK from 2005 to 2017

  43. What our analysis finds is this:

  44. Financial feelings were important in the Brexit decision

  45. Interestingly, actual income was less so

  46. Financial feelings were important in the Brexit decision

  47. Some other patterns

  48. Some other patterns • Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain

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