Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK

1. Human Happiness and the Midlife ‘Crisis’ Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that much of this work is joint with coauthors Andrew Clark, Nick Powdthavee, David G. Blanchflower, Alex Weiss, Rainer Winkelmann, Dilip Jeste, and Steve Wu. I thank the ESRC for support.

2. Human beings have feelings.

7. Humans have feelings, and feelings matter.

8. What happens as we get older?

10. Is there scientific evidence for a midlife crisis?

13. The bottom line today

14. The bottom line today • There really is a midlife low

15. The bottom line today • There really is a midlife low • It happens equally in men and women

16. The bottom line today • There really is a midlife low • It happens equally in men and women • It is scientifically unexplained

17. The bottom line today • There really is a midlife low • It happens equally in men and women • It is scientifically unexplained • There is a possibility that it is somehow biological.

18. How do researchers study such a thing?

19. Using random samples from many nations: Researchers try to understand what influences the psychological wellbeing of (i) (ii)

20. Using random samples from many nations: Researchers try to understand what influences the psychological wellbeing of (i) individuals (ii) nations.

21. Regression equations

22. Regression equations Mental well-being = f(Age, gender, education level, income, marital status, friendship networks, region, year…)

23. Big effects on happiness: Unemployment Divorce Marriage Bereavement Friendship networks Health No effects from children [but + for grandchildren: Nick Powdthavee]

24. Here is the key fact:

25. The pattern of a typical person’s happiness through life

26. This holds in various settings

27. The latest UK government data(Sample: 100,000 Britons) Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

28. Recent US data (Sample: 400,000 Americans) Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

29. The probability of depression by age Males, LFS data set 2004-2006 0.02 0.015 0.01 Regression coefficient 0.005 0 -0.005 -0.01 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 Year of birth

30. Depression by age among females: LFS data 2004-2006Q2 0.002 0 -0.002 -0.004 Regression coefficient -0.006 -0.008 -0.01 -0.012 -0.014 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 Year of birth

31. The Relationship Between the Probability of Antidepressant Use and Age (European nations)

32. But what causes the midlife dip?

33. But what causes the midlife dip? It is nothing to do with having young children, and is found all over the world.

34. But what causes the midlife dip? It is nothing to do with having young children, and is found all over the world. 65+ nations so far.

35. Why?

36. Until recently, the leading theory was one of thwarted aspirations.

37. Until recently, the leading theory was one of thwarted aspirations.

38. But researchers around the world must now consider throwing away that theory.

41. Weiss, A., King, J.E., Inoue-Murayam, M., Matsuzama, T. and Oswald, A.J. (2012). ‘Evidence for a midlife crisis in great apes consistent with the U-shape in human well-being’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, vol. 109, pp. 19949-19952.

42. Happiness in humans

43. Happiness in great apes

45. There is also new, and truly longitudinal, cross-national evidence. Cheng, T., Powdthavee, N., and Oswald, A.J. (2015). ‘Longitudinal evidence for a midlife low in human well-being: Results from four data sets’, Economic Journal, forthcoming.

46. We exploit the properties of a quadratic.

47. What lesson might be drawn?

48. What lesson might be drawn? • A midlife crisis, in some form, is intrinsically natural.

49. What lesson might be drawn? • A midlife crisis, in some form, is intrinsically natural.

50. However, currently, this puzzle remains to be understood: