Bond Analysis & Valuation Techniques for Investors

1. Lecture Presentation Softwareto accompanyInvestment Analysis and Portfolio ManagementSeventh Editionby Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown Chapter 19

2. The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds Additional Comments

3. Types of Bond Yields Yield Measure Purpose Nominal Yield Measures the coupon rate Current yield Measures current income rate Promised yield to maturity Measures expected rate of return for bond held to maturity Promised yield to call Measures expected rate of return for bond held to first call date Measures expected rate of return for a bond likely to be sold prior to maturity. It considers specified reinvestment assumptions and an estimated sales price. It can also measure the actual rate of return on a bond during some past period of time. Realized (horizon) yield

4. Nominal Yield Measures the coupon rate that a bond investor receives as a percent of the bond’s par value

5. Current Yield Similar to dividend yield for stocks Important to income oriented investors CY = Ci/Pm where: CY = the current yield on a bond Ci = the annual coupon payment of bondi Pm = the current market price of the bond

6. Promised Yield to Maturity • Widely used bond yield figure • Assumes • Investor holds bond to maturity • All the bond’s cash flow is reinvested at the computed yield to maturity Solve for i that will equate the current price to all cash flows from the bond to maturity, similar to IRR

7. Promised Yield to CallPresent-Value Method Where: Pm= market price of the bond Ci = annual coupon payment nc = number of years to first call Pc = call price of the bond

8. Realized YieldPresent-Value Method

9. Calculating Future Bond Prices Where: Pf= estimated future price of the bond Ci = annual coupon payment n = number of years to maturity hp = holding period of the bond in years i = expected semiannual rate at the end of the holding period

10. What Determines Interest Rates • Term structure of interest rates • Expectations hypothesis • Liquidity preference hypothesis • Segmented market hypothesis • Trading implications of the term structure

11. Any long-term interest rate simply represents the geometric mean of current and future one-year interest rates expected to prevail over the maturity of the issue Expectations Hypothesis

12. Long-term securities should provide higher returns than short-term obligations because investors are willing to sacrifice some yields to invest in short-maturity obligations to avoid the higher price volatility of long-maturity bonds Liquidity Preference Theory

13. Different institutional investors have different maturity needs that lead them to confine their security selections to specific maturity segments Segmented-Market Hypothesis

14. Information on maturities can help you formulate yield expectations by simply observing the shape of the yield curve Trading Implications of the Term Structure

15. Yield Spreads • Segments: government bonds, agency bonds, and corporate bonds • Sectors: prime-grade municipal bonds versus good-grade municipal bonds, AA utilities versus BBB utilities • Coupons or seasoning within a segment or sector • Maturities within a given market segment or sector

16. Yield Spreads Magnitudes and direction of yield spreads can change over time

17. The Duration Measure • Since price volatility of a bond varies inversely with its coupon and directly with its term to maturity, it is necessary to determine the best combination of these two variables to achieve your objective • A composite measure considering both coupon and maturity would be beneficial • Such a measure is provided by duration, discussed previously • The duration of a portfolio is the dollar-weighted average of the duration of the bonds in the portfolio.

18. Bond Convexity • Modified duration provides a linear approximation of bond price change for small changes in market yields • However, price changes are not linear, but instead follow a curvilinear (convex) function

19. Determinants of Convexity The convexity is the measure of the curvature and is the second derivative of price with resect to yield (d2P/di2) divided by price Convexity is the percentage change in dP/di for a given change in yield

20. Determinants of Convexity • Inverse relationship between coupon and convexity • Direct relationship between maturity and convexity • Inverse relationship between yield and convexity

21. Modified Duration-Convexity Effects • Changes in a bond’s price resulting from a change in yield are due to: • Bond’s modified duration • Bond’s convexity • Relative effect of these two factors depends on the characteristics of the bond (its convexity) and the size of the yield change • (Positive) convexity is desirable

22. Convexity of Callable Bonds • Noncallable bond has positive convexity • Callable bond has negative convexity

23. Limitations of Macaulay and Modified Duration • Percentage change estimates using modified duration only are good for small-yield changes • Difficult to determine the interest-rate sensitivity of a portfolio of bonds when there is a change in interest rates and the yield curve experiences a nonparallel shift • Initial assumption that cash flows from the bond are not affected by yield changes

24. Future topicsChapter 20 • Bond Portfolio Management Strategies