Foreign Exchange: Dealing with Currencies

1. Foreign Exchange: Dealing with Currencies with a basic introduction to the International Monetary System 9-1

2. Foreign Exchange Terms • Foreign exchange: money denominated in the currency of another nation or group of nations • Cash • Credit • Bank deposits • Other short-term claims (e.g., bonds) • Exchange rate: the price of a particular currency relative to another

3. Basic questions … • What is money? • How should you convert money from one currency into another? • How are the values of currencies set? • How can you limit foreign exchange risk (the possibility that unpredicted changes in exchange rates will have adverse consequences for the firm)? • Can you predict when currency values will change? If so, how?

4. What is money? • The “medium of exchange” • that is, something widely acceptedas means of payment • Usually, governments declare certain pieces of paper (and bank assets) to be money • But people must accept them • Alternatives are inconvenient, but possible • Tobacco in early American colonies • U.S. dollar in Russia when ruble collapsed

5. If you sell abroad, and you may receive payment in foreign currency • Buy abroad, and you may have to pay in foreign currency • Travel abroad, you must spend foreign currency • A foreign direct investment will have to pay expenses in foreign currency

6. How should you convert money from one currency into another? • Current values of major foreign currencies are available on the Web • Most businesspeople normally buy from or sell to a bank • The bank often gives less than the rates offered on the Web, but handles all details • Banks may vary a lot in how good a deal they give • But they know they have to be competitive with other banks

7. A business with significant foreign activity creates a stable relationship with one or a few banks • Nowadays, you can do your own currency trading

9. How are the values of currencies set? • There are two basic ways • “Fixed” or “Pegged” exchange rates • Governments decide the value of currency • Example: Hong Kong’s government keeps the value of its dollar at roughly US$0.129 (US$1=HK$7.75) • With a ‘fixed rate’, there is absolutely no variability. • A ‘pegged’ rate implies small variability

10. The major developed-country currencies float against each other • Supply and demand sets values • This is how exchange rates are set for the US dollar vs. • Euro, • Japanese yen, • British pound, • Swiss franc, etc.

12. Fixed exchange rates have important benefits • They make business predictable • In some very prosperous periods, most major exchange rates have been fixed • The late 19th century • 1945-1971

13. The gold standard made the benefits of fixed rates clear • Before WW I, all major currencies were convertible into gold • UK £1=113 grains gold (.2354 oz) • US $1= 23.22 grains (.0484 oz) • So, £1=4.87 • Everyone knew what everything was and would be worth

14. But a fixed exchange rate requires discipline in the government – and a willingness to create pain • Example: Suppose your nation’s economy is very prosperous, but exports are growing only slowly • Your people will have money to buy imports • Their demand for foreign currencies will put upward pressure on their exchange rates • Government has to slowthe domestic economy to prevent change in exchange rate • Higher taxes, higher interest rates, lower government spending

15. Many economists say if a country is having difficulty maintaining a fixed exchange rate, the economy is ‘overheated’ • They say higher interest rates or higher taxes might be better for the economy in the long runin those circumstances • But politicians don’t like to take pain • U.S. abandoned fixed exchange rates when the Vietnam War created strong inflation

16. It seems that the more complicated an economy, the more difficult it is to maintain fixed/pegged rates • Many small countries succeed • Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Fiji • Few propose them for the largest developed countries today • Many developing countries including China restrict who can own their money • ‘Hot’ investments in ‘emerging’ currencies have often caused problems when foreigners changed their minds

17. China maintains a pegged exchange rate • For long periods it kept the rate at less than an equilibrium price • Its government had to buy lots of surplus dollars that its exports brought in • In June 2012 China had $3,240 billion US dollars

18. When an economy has recently grown, it may be hard to spend • There is poor transportation infrastructure • People live in the countryside or in tiny urban apartments, so they have little space for things • So more money may come in from exports than people want to spend

19. It’s easier to manage a currency’s level if you have a trade surplus than a trade deficit • You can simply use the surplus to buy up the foreign exchange that comes into the country • China fears that if the value of the Yuan rises, declining sales of manufacturers will hurt employment

20. US per capita GDP is $48,400 • China’s per capita GDP at current Yuan exchange rate is $5400 • Thus, a US worker must ordinarily be 9 times as productive as a Chinese worker to sell internationally • China’s nominal per capita income up 46% in 3 years! • For the US and Europe, a low Yuan and Chinese import restrictions make recovery from recession harder • But Americans get to consume more

22. Most international business involves currencies with floating rates • Buyers and sellers establish prices in markets like those for tea and wheat • $1,200,000,000,000 in foreign exchange is traded every day • US dollar is most widely traded • involved in 90% of all transactions • London is the main foreign-exchange market

23. Foreign-Exchange Trading Terms • Bid: the rate at which a trader will buy foreign currency from you • Offer (or Ask): the rate at which a trader will sell foreign currency to you • Spread: the difference between bid and offer rates; the profit margin for the trader 9-6

24. Market Rhythms 9-13

26. Insuring Against Foreign Exchange Risk • Businesses use the foreign exchange market to provide insurance against foreign exchange risk • A firm that protects itself against foreign exchange risk is hedging • You can buy or sell using • spot exchange rates • forward exchange rates • currency swaps

27. Insuring Against Foreign Exchange Risk 1. Spot Exchange Rates • The spot exchange rate is the rate at which a foreign exchange dealer converts one currency into another currency on a particular day • Spot rates are determined by the interaction between supply and demand, and so change continually

28. Insuring Against Foreign Exchange Risk 2. Forward Exchange Rates • A forward exchange occurs when two parties agree to exchange currency at some specific future date • Forward rates are typically quoted for 30, 90, or 180 days into the future • Forward rates are typically the same as the spot rate plus or minus an adjustment for the interest the parties will pay/receive

29. Insuring Against Foreign Exchange Risk 3. Currency Swaps • A currency swap is the simultaneous purchase and sale of an amount of foreign exchange on two different dates • Swaps are used when it is desirable to move out of one currency into another for a limited period without incurring foreign exchange rate risk • For example, you have accepted an order in Japanese yen and you must manufacture the product using components you must purchase in Japanese yen

31. How can you predict when currency values will change? • Business decisions demand you look far ahead • If exchange rates will change and you don’t hedge adequately, your whole calculation will be off • Some foreign currencies have lost 90% or more of their value in a year • Argentine peso went from $1=1 peso to $1=3.5 pesos in one jump

32. ‘Fundamental analysis’ involves examining basic economic data • How fast are prices rising in the country? • Is there a trade surplus or deficit? • Is the government running budget deficits? How much? • How do interest rates in the countries compare? • How has the government been managing the currency?

33. Technical analysis involves examining trends in exchange rates • One principle: Trends once established often tend to continue • ‘The trend is your friend’ • But if “everyone” agrees something will happen, it may not happen • When ‘everyone’ thinks the dollar will go down, ‘everyone’ has already sold dollars • If the news changes, many may quickly change their minds and want to buy

34. Foreign exchange can be the difference between profit and loss • HSBC Bank in Argentina • They entered Argentina at a time when it appeared the government was starting to manage the economy effectively • But they continued investing as government became more irresponsible • They lost big

37. Material below here is not required

38. Foreign-Exchange Convertibility • Fully convertible currencies are those that the government allows both residents and nonresidents to purchase in unlimited amounts • “Hard currencies” are fully convertible • “Soft currencies” (or weak currencies) are not fully convertible • Typically from developing countries • Known as “exotic currencies” 9-10