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Climate Change

Climate Change. Opportunities and Threats for Guernsey Dr Andrew Casebow. Putting climate change into context. Climate Change is not Unusual !. The last ‘the ice age’ started 120,000 years ago and ended about 10,000 years ago

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Climate Change

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  1. Climate Change Opportunities and Threats for Guernsey Dr Andrew Casebow

  2. Putting climate change into context

  3. Climate Change is not Unusual ! • The last ‘the ice age’ started 120,000 years ago and ended about 10,000 years ago • Vostock ice core (Antarctic) shows that there have been 4 ice ages in the past 420,000 years • Antarctic Dome C ice core – deepest ever drilled – represents 740,000 years of continuous climate records • There have been 9 ice ages in past 780,000 years ! We live in an interglacial warm period – a brief summer !!

  4. Taking Ice Cores in the Antarctic Vostok ice core shows remarkable correlation between greenhouse gases and climate over the past 4 glacial – interglacial cycles Ice cores yield a wealth of information on the climate and the gases in the atmosphere when the ice was first formed

  5. Fluctuations of the Earth’s Temperature in past 420,000 years

  6. We have the Evidence of Past Climate Change all around us:- Fossil Cliffs & Wave Cut Platforms

  7. 8 metre Raised Beach at La Marede Carteret – from 120,000 yrs ago Cobo Looking over the Mare de Carteret from Home Farm 8m Raised Beach at Les Genets Estate

  8. Fossil Cliffs and Raised Beaches Raised Beach at La Houguette and Les Rouvets 30m above MDL from 420,000 yrs ago Approx line of past beach -18m above MDL from 320,000 yrs ago

  9. Sea Level c18,000 years ago Sea level about 120 metres lower than current Mean Datum

  10. Sea Level around the Channel Islands c 8,000 years ago Diagrams provided by John Renouf, Jersey

  11. Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature over the past 1,000 years (IPCC, 2001) Temperature rises have followed increasing concentration of C02 in atmosphere. C02 concentration is now higher than at any time in the last 740,000 years.

  12. What is causing climate change / global warming?

  13. The culprit!

  14. World population (billions) Energy use per capita (Ej/yr) year year Drivers of CO2 Emissions – People ! Increasing human population and affluence drives emissions. Human population just 2 Million people 8,000 years ago – 9 billion projected by 2050 !

  15. What is causing climate change- Global Warming ! • World population increase – Under 3 billion people in 1955 to 6.5 billion people in 2005 and projected to over 9 billion by 2050 !) • All need food, transport, fuel, light and heat! • We all want a ‘western lifestyle’ – • Larger urban ‘middle classes’, cars not bikes, heating homes and offices, more meat and dairy products in diet supplied by methane producing animals rather than rice and grains • Leads to the felling and burning of forests • Causing emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, N2O, etc. The ‘greenhouse’ effect!

  16. Current population and emissions compared with future!

  17. The Greenhouse Effect • Greenhouse gases: • Carbon dioxide • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Water vapour

  18. What effect is climate change having in Guernsey?

  19. Recent ‘observed’ Climate Changes in Guernsey • Rising temperatures • Less summer rainfall – causing longer summer droughts • Fewer winter frosts • Warmer seas • We can see these effects already !

  20. Annual Mean Temperature at Guernsey Airport 1947 - 2007

  21. 16 consecutive years of above average temperatures (av. 0.9°C) Source: Tim Lillington, Guernsey Met Office

  22. Source: Tim Lillington, Guernsey Met Office

  23. Hot dry summer conditions – much lower rainfall Lower mid-summer rainfall leads to drought = lack of plant growth

  24. Effects of Climatic Changes in Guernsey • A 1o C risein mean temperature corresponds to 90 kms of latitude and 150m of altitude – (Peters 1993) • Wildlife is moving northwards (in N hemisphere) and higher up mountains (OK not in Guernsey !) • Changing So Fast – Over 1o C in less than 30 years !

  25. Effects of Climatic Changes on Wildlife in Guernsey • Plants (and birds) from warmer climates becoming naturalised but losing others! • Wild plants flowering earlier! • Migrant birds arriving earlier/ overwintering • Birds laying eggs and rearing young earlier • Plankton, fish and crustaceans (etc) moving north as sea temperatures rise

  26. Naturalised Plants From warmer ‘southern’ areas: South African ‘Kaffir Fig’ Mediterranean: Rosy garlic (Allium roseum). First seen on dunes at Les Dicqs in 1957 • South American: • Guernsey Fleabane. First ‘British’ record at Mont Crevelt in 1961 • Pink Oxalis • First noted 1953 on hedge banks

  27. Whilst we will gain southern species – we may lose others as Guernsey no longer provides suitable ‘climate space’

  28. Wild Birds in Guernsey Puffins at the southern limit of their range – stable population but may decline if food / habitat changes

  29. Little Egrets are increasing in numbers: • Only 2/3 sightings • per year in • early 1990’s • Now two roosts • with 54 birds and • they bred for the • first time in • Guernsey in 2004. But local wader populations (e.g. dunlin, grey plover, red shank) declining - nationally observed trend of waders moving from the west coast to the east coast of Britain.

  30. Snowdrops Snowdrops flowering 21 days earlier than they did 21 years ago

  31. Mean of 21 Spring Flowering Species 1985 - 2005 • 21 species of • plants flowering • in Nigel Jee’s • garden. • 19 are earlier • than 21 years • ago • 11 species • statistically • significant The 21 species had become earlier by 21 days up until 2005!

  32. Insects – moths becoming earlier and more Mediterranean species White Ermine Moth (192) Hebrew Character Moth (382) Credits: Rothampsted Local light trap – data for ‘Rothamsted’ survey ‘Mean flight date’ 12 days earlier than 35 years ago

  33. Sea Water Temperature (Change in surface water temperatures) Mean annual sea temperatures have increased. Cold years are caused by cold winters rather than cooler summers.

  34. Sea Level Change (Local waters) Sea level for Cherbourg (solid line) and St. Helier, Jersey (dotted line). Data are presented relative to the common period of both series (1995-2006). Trend: Sea level increase 1.2mm per year. Source: Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl).

  35. Warming seas might be ‘pleasant’ around Guernsey but thawing arctic ice destroys habitats and can raise sea levels The ‘North-West Passage’ around the north of Canada opened up to shipping for 5 weeks from 11th August 2007. The US ‘Snow and Ice Data Centre’ suggests the arctic will be ice free by the summer by 2030 – Hadley Centre thinks a bit longer!

  36. The Future !

  37. Variations in Future Temperature will depend on what actions we take now ………. Past and future CO2 equivalents - atmospheric concentrations Source: IPCC 2001

  38. Changes in Climate by 2080 Current climate models suggest: • Channel Island Summers - Hotter and Drier (temperatures increasing by 40 or 50C – 60% less summer rainfall) • Winters – Warmer and Wetter • Much milder – Even fewer winter frosts ! • Sea warmer and levels higher – by up to 0.7m in 75 years – and possibly much more! If we fail to take action and curb emissions global warming will continue for hundreds of years !!

  39. The Economics of Climate Change • Sir Nicholas Stern said that to avoid Dangerous Climate Change we must reduce energy use by more than 60% - • Dangerous climate change (sea level rise of more than 1 metre) can only be avoided if temperatures do not rise by more than 20 C • If mankind continues in a ‘business as usual’ scenario then greenhouse gases could treble and temperatures rise by more than 50 C by 2100 • The benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs !

  40. What action can we take to reduce global warming / adapt to change? • Mitigation: Slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions • Adaptation: Respond to the predicted impacts of unavoidable climate change

  41. Mitigation: Positive Action for the Future • Reducing energy use in the home and workplace –possibly greater use of electricity – electric cars? • Better insulation of buildings • Reducing waste going to landfill • Reducing traffic and pollution – encouraging people to walk or cycle, public transport, etc • Reducing resource use – renewable electricity, efficient use of water, using renewable products • Changing our diet !! • Surging price of oil will drive the shift to alternative sources of energy and energy efficiency! Oil at $140 per barrel - who will not try to save costs?

  42. Mitigation: Opportunities for local energy production • Greater use of electricity – from Nuclear generation, wind generation or from tidal power • Biomass – heating schemes using willow or miscanthus that could be locally grown ? • Anaerobic digestion of wastes (animal and food waste) to generate heat and power ? • Ethanol production from cereals – inefficient and what of the world’s need for food? • Oil crops for bio-fuel – but at what cost to wildlife habitats, the worlds forests, etc?

  43. Mitigation: Renewable Energy • Wind power – but a typical 2Mw machine needs a tower 100 metres high • Solar Power – water heating and photovoltaics • Tidal Power – but only prototypes available • Wave Power Guernsey is in a good position for locally generated energy but it will require economic stimulus to make it viable!

  44. The Global Energy Revolution • Sweeping changes to the electricity and motor industries’ are needed if carbon dioxide emissions are to be halved by 2050. • “The world faces the daunting combination of surging energy demand, rising greenhouse gas emissions and tightening resources. A global energy technology revolution is both necessary and achievable, but it will be a tough challenge” NobuoTanaka, Director, International Energy Agency 9th June 2008

  45. A LOW CARBON-SOCIETY….. • Contributes towards the global effort to stabilise atmospheric contributions of CO2and other greenhouse gases at a level which will avoid dangerous climate change • Demonstrateshigh levels of energy efficiency and uses low carbon energy sources and production technologies • Adopts patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low levels of GHG emissions • Ensures that the needs of all groups in society are met

  46. THIS MEANS…. • In Developed Countries • making deep cuts in CO2 (and other) emissions by the middle of the 21st century • the development and deployment of low carbon technologies and changes to lifestyles and institutions • Can we – in Guernsey - really say that we are not a part of Society ?

  47. The Lifestyle Issue

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