Lecture Outlines Natural Disasters, 7 th edition

1. Lecture OutlinesNatural Disasters, 7th edition Patrick L. Abbott

2. Natural Disasters and the Human PopulationNatural Disasters, 7th edition, Chapter 1

3. Natural Disasters in 2004 and 2005 • More than 280,000 people killed by natural disasters in 2004, almost 100,000 in 2005 • 2005 Pakistan earthquake: 88,000 people killed • 3.3 million left homeless • 2nd wave of deaths from winter storm • 2005 Hurricane Katrina • 2004 Hurricane Ivan was dress rehearsal, close miss • 2005 Hurricane Katrina was direct hit on Mississippi, engulfed much of Gulf Coast • Failure of Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain levees flooded parts of New Orleans up to 20 feet

4. Evidence of a natural disaster? Ocotillo, Ca2010

5. Bear Grylls??

6. Human Fatalities in Natural Disasters • Sawtooth-shaped curve caused by largest natural disasters • Biggest killers (in order): hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, severe weather, landslides, volcanic eruptions, tornadoes and tsunami • Most mega-killer disasters occur in densely populated belt through Asia, along Indian Ocean – number of fatalities is proportional to density of population • Effects on survivors • Increase in altruism Figure 1.4

7. Economic Losses from Natural Disasters • Destruction and damage to structures, loss of productivity and wages • Increase in economic losses over time is result of increase in human population and urbanization • Most expensive events caused by storms and occurred in U.S., Europe and Japan

8. Natural Hazards • Hazard exists even where disasters are infrequent • Evaluate site risk • Mitigation prior to event • Engineering, physical, social and political plans and actions to reduce death and destruction from natural hazards • Mitigation after event • Rebuilding and re-inhabiting same site • Case history: Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico • Eruptions in 822, 1519 and beginning again in 1994 • Currently 100,000 people living at base Figure 1.5

9. Magnitude, Frequency, and Return Period • Inverse correlation between frequency (how often it occurs) and magnitude (how big it is) of a process • Frequent occurrences are low in magnitude, rare occurrences are high in magnitude • Small-scale activity is common, big events are rare • Larger the event, longer the return period (recurrence interval) • Probability estimates of various size (10-fatality, 1000-fatality, etc.) occurrences can be considered • Cost-benefit ratio can be considered in conjunction with return-period of given magnitude event

10. Overview of Human Population History • Difficult to assess early human population growth • Human species ‘began’ approximately 160,000 years ago, with a few thousand people • Human population has grown to over 6.7 billion people in 2008 • Growth rate is exponential Figure 1.7

11. Side Note: Interest Paid on Money: An Example of Exponential Growth Visualize exponential growth in terms of doubling time • Number of years for population to double in size, given annual percentage growth rate • Doubling time = • 70 • % growth rate/year • Example of interest paid on money • Linear growth: $1000 + $100 / year • Exponential growth: $1000 + 7% / year • Example of water lily plant in pond • Doubles in size every day • Covers half the pond the day before it covers the whole pond Figure 1.9

12. The Last 10,000 Years of Human History • Flat population growth curve until 8,000 years ago • Agriculture established • Domestication of animals • Growth rate increased to 0.036%/year • By 2,000 years ago, population ~200 million people • Better shelter, food, water supplies  faster population growth • Growth rate of 0.056%/year • By 1750, population • ~800 million people Figure 1.8

13. The Last 10,000 Years of Human History • By 1750, population ~800 million people • Public health principles, causes of disease recognized • Birth rates soared, death rates dropped • 1810: ~1 billion • 1925: ~2 billion • 1960: ~3 billion Insert figure 1.10 here • 1974: ~4 billion • 1987: ~5 billion • 1999: ~6 billion • By 2013, projected population ~7 billion Figure 1.10

14. The Human Population Today • Present population: (insert number) • Growth rate = 1.2%/year • Doubling time = 58 years • Growth rate = • fertility (birth) rate – mortality (death) rate • Human population grows by about 80 million people per year

15. Future World Population • Demographic transition theory: • Mortality and fertility ratesdeclinefrom high to low levels because of economic and social development • Population Reference Bureau estimates world population growth rates aredropping • From 1.8%in 1990 to1.2%in 2008 • Due to urbanization and increased opportunities for women

16. Future World Population Figure 1.12

17. Future World Population • BUTpopulation explosioncontinues • From 1950 to 2000 population grew from 2.5 billion to 6 billion • Growth rate of1.2%/yearmeans population of 9 billion in 2050 • Consider no. of births / woman topredict 2150 population • Average 1.6 children/woman:3.6 billion • Average 2 children/woman:10.8 billion • Average 2.6 children/woman (current average):27 billion

18. Demographic Divide • Wealthy countries: low birth rates, long life expectancies • Poor countries: high birth rates, short life expectancies • Examples of Japan’s shrinking population vs. Nigeria’s expanding population Insert table 1.10

19. Carrying Capacity • How many people can Earth support? • Calculations of carrying capacity vary considerably • Increasing amounts of food can be produced • People can migrate from areas of famine or poverty to less crowded or wealthier areas • BUT Earth’s resources are finite, so solutions are temporary Figure 1.15

20. Carrying Capacity • Example of Rapa Nui (Easter Island) • Isolated Pacific island with poor soil and little water • Settled by 25-50 Polynesians in 5th century • Survived easily on chickens and yams, plenty of free time • Developed elaborate competition between clans with moai (statues) • Civilization peaked at 1550, with population of ~7000 Figure 1.14

21. Carrying Capacity • Example of Rapa Nui (Easter Island) • Reached by a Dutch ship in 1722 • Found about 2,000 people living in caves • Primitive society, constant warfare • Rapa Nui’s carrying capacity had been drastically lowered by society’s actions: • Transportation of moai had required cutting down trees • Erosion of soil made yams scarce • Lack of canoes made fishing difficult and escape impossible

22. End of Chapter 1