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Martin Cave Warwick Business School, UK Martin.Cave@wbs.ac.uk

The Future of Telecoms Liberalisation ‘Enhancing end-to-end platforms’ Martin Cave 2-3 November 2006. Martin Cave Warwick Business School, UK Martin.Cave@wbs.ac.uk. The different contexts of regulation. Spread of broadband –millions (EU15). The regulatory outcome in Europe .

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Martin Cave Warwick Business School, UK Martin.Cave@wbs.ac.uk

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  1. The Future of Telecoms Liberalisation‘Enhancing end-to-end platforms’Martin Cave2-3 November 2006 Martin Cave Warwick Business School, UK Martin.Cave@wbs.ac.uk mec1446

  2. The different contexts of regulation mec1446

  3. Spread of broadband –millions (EU15) mec1446

  4. The regulatory outcome in Europe Two recommended markets: Unbundled loops (universal SMP) Wholesale broadband access/bitstream (SMP everywhere, save the Netherlands) (Note Commission’s treatment of cable bitstream and ULL) In other words: extensive access regulation in principle; held up in many countries, eg. Germany, Ireland. mec1446

  5. Evaluation of current generation broadband Has access regulation led to adverse results? • Econometric evidence: neutral, may favour ULL • Investment data: inconclusive • International benchmarking: quite favourable Has access regulation hampered full competition? • Clear theoretical possibility • Little clear evidence mec1446

  6. The consequences of new technology IP Networks • Core: aggregate traffic, reduce costs • Access: enable new services, fundamentally change network architecture, vary access points mec1446

  7. ‘ ‘ Last mile Last mile ’ ’ Last yards’ ‘ ‘ Last mile ’ Sub Sub - - loop access loop access MDF access (LLU) MDF access (LLU) Regional bitstream Regional bitstream Nat / regional bitstream Nat / regional bitstream National bitstream National bitstream Retail Retail Retail Retail Double ladder -Changes in access points mec1446

  8. The wireless option Mobile broadband currently outside fixed markets – largely through price differentials Cion’s spectrum proposal should enable Wi-Max, services beyond 3G etc. Economics not yet demonstrated mec1446

  9. A cable revival Pitiful cable investment 2001-2004 Core-teeth of fixed telecoms) New standards, wider competitors The Spanish exception mec1446

  10. Demand side effects Higher speeds Self-generated content, more symmetry Fixed/mobile seamlessness mec1446

  11. Conjectures for refutation Existing regulatory model of access will be broken Future will/can include multiple end-to-end differentiated platforms Scope for retail network split The future is collective dominance! mec1446

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