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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: IMPLICATIONS FOR AG LENDERS

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: IMPLICATIONS FOR AG LENDERS. Remarks by Mark Pearson Independent Community Bankers Nashville, Tennessee March 12, 2012. Gross Fed. Debt FY-1900 to FY-2016. Source: usgovernmentspending.com. U.S. National Debt. Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO. Thoughts on the World Economy.

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: IMPLICATIONS FOR AG LENDERS

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  1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: IMPLICATIONS FOR AG LENDERS Remarks by Mark Pearson Independent Community Bankers Nashville, Tennessee March 12, 2012

  2. Gross Fed. Debt FY-1900 to FY-2016 Source: usgovernmentspending.com

  3. U.S. National Debt Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO

  4. Thoughts on the World Economy • $71.25 trillion – Global GDP • $14.89 trillion – EU GDP • $14.72 trillion – U.S. GDP • $9.87 trillion – China GDP • $4.33 trillion – Japan GDP • $4.04 trillion – India GDP Source: CIA Factbook

  5. U.S. GDP – FY2004-FY2014 Source: usgovernmentspending.com

  6. WorldReal GDP Growth 1980-2013 Source: Int’l Monetary Fund

  7. U.S. Consumer Confidence Source: University of Michigan

  8. New Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census of Bureau

  9. Manufacturers’ New Orders 2010-11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  10. DJIA Five-Year Performance Source: finance.yahoo.com

  11. 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Source: finance.yahoo.com

  12. Five-YearU.S. Dollar Index Source: NYBOT

  13. Five-Year Gold Prices Source: kitco.com

  14. 10-Year Prime Rate Source: MoneyCafe.com

  15. Inflation Adjusted Farmland Values 1964-2010 Source: Chicago Federal Reserve

  16. d Repayment Capacity 1970-2011 Source: ERS, USDA

  17. Farm Sector Debt Ratios 1970-2011 Source: ERS, USDA

  18. d FarmSector Equity 1970-2011 Source: ERS, USDA

  19. Farm Sector Business Debt 1970-2011 Source: ERS, USDA

  20. Light Sweet Crude Oil Source: NYMEX

  21. China’s Total Primary Energy Consumption, 1970-2020 Source: Int’l Energy Outlook

  22. China’s Demand for Oil Imports Source: Int’l Energy Outlook

  23. China Flex Its Military Muscles Source: Defencetalk.com

  24. Vital Maritime Chokepoints Source: EIA

  25. Projected World Population 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  26. World Population Density

  27. World Population Growth Rate Source: CIA Factbook

  28. “Youth Bulge” Population Impact 300 250 200 150 100 50 25 0 Millions 292.2 Afghanistan 240.3 Iran 158.1 100.2 91.2 Pakistan 79.4 69.4 53.3 25.1 2005 2030 2050 Source: Stanford Center for Longevity

  29. Median Age in Mideast Hot Spots 41 Afghanistan 36 34 Iran 28 23 23 Pakistan 18 20 16 2005 2030 2050 Source: Stanford Center for Longevity

  30. 10-Year Corn Prices Source: NASS

  31. 10-Year Soybean Prices Source: NASS

  32. 10-Year Wheat Prices Source: NASS

  33. 10-Year Cattle Prices Source: NASS

  34. 10-Year Hog Prices Source: NASS

  35. 10-Year Cotton Prices Source: NASS

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