Reframing the Skeleton & Reframing Progress With Universities

1. IBM Centennial Icon of Progress Alexandria/Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology Smarter Planet T-shaped People Reframing the Skeleton & Reframing Progress With Universities Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.com Innovation Champion and Director IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development) International Society of Systems Sciences San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA, Tuesday July 17, 2012

2. Today’s Talk • Introduction: The Big Picture & Systems Thinking • Real World Systems (RWS): Natural Systems & Service Systems • Some Reading: Gallis, Normann, Deacon, etc. • Policymaking & Universities as Essential Institutions • Reframing the Skeleton (Boulding) • General Phenomena/Ecology • Hierarchy Complexity/Evolution • Specialization/Academic Silos – Slowing Progress • Reframing Progress With Universities • Bounded Rationality & Knowledge Burden • {Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience} • University as “Holistic Product-Service Systems” • Rehearsing Rebuilding Society • Rewinding The Tape of Life (Gould)

3. ~14B Big Bang (Natural World) ~10K Cities (Human-Made World) bees (social division-of-labor) transistor (routine cognitive work) 60 200M Evolution of Natural Systems & Service Systems Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations… To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum Time writing (symbols and scribes, stored memory and knowledge) ECOLOGY written laws (governance and stored control) money (governed transportable value stored value, “economic energy”) sun (energy) earth (molecules & stored energy) bacteria (single-cell life) sponges (multi-cell life) universities (knowledge workers) clams (neurons) printing press (books) trilobites (brains) steam engine (work)

4. Co-Evolution (Michael Gallis & Associates) http://www.scribd.com/doc/46259459/Co-Evolution

5. Smarter Service Systems = Complex Systems That Serve Customers Better water, electricity, transportation, education, healthcare, etc. Service Systems Natural Systems Quality of Life Our World and Us Has Part Has Part Planetary Systems Benefits Benefits Carbon Footprint (Choices) Capabilities, Experience (Choices)

6. Normann: Reframing Business • Reframing Business: When the Map Changes the Landscape • Richard Normann • Value-Creating Systems

7. Deacon: Incomplete Nature • Incomplete Nature: How Mind Emerged From Matter • Terrence W. Deacon • Thermodynamics -> Teleodynamics (purpose-driven system dynamics) • Purpose = map

8. Spohrer et al: Service Science and Policymaking • Three Frameworks for Service Research: Exploring Multilevel Governance in Nested, Networked Systems • Jim Spohrer, Paolo Piciocchi, Clara Bassano • Nested, Networked Systems

9. Nation For-profits U-BEE Job Creator/Sustainer State/Province City/Metro Hospital Medical Research Cultural & Conference Hotels University College K-12 Non-profits Worker (professional) Family (household) University: Three Missions • Knowledge • Transfer (Teaching) • Creation (Research) • Application (RWS Impact) • Commerce/Entrepreneurship • Governance/Policymaking • Nested Holistic Systems • Flows • Development • Governance Third Mission (Apply to Create Value) is about U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

10. We Are All Part Of Nested, Networked Systems Matryoska dolls: Origin Japanese

11. I am nested in at least 10 systems

12. Service Systems, Natural Systems 8 levels of living systems(Miller, 1972) Cell ... living systems theory (LST) asserts that all of the great variety of living entities that evolution has produced are complexly structured open systems. They maintain within their boundaries their thermodynamically improbable energetic states by continuous interactions with their environments. Inputs and outputs of both matter-energy and information are essential for living systems. The total inputs are lower in entropy and higher in information than the total outputs. [....] The eight levels of living systems evolved by a process of fray-out (see Figure 1) in which the larger higher-level systems developed increasingly complex components in each subsystem than those below them in the hierarchy of living systems. [....] Fray-out can be likened to the unraveling of a ship's cable Organ Organism Group Organization Community Society Supranational System

13. Service Systems, Natural Systems General System Theory: The Skeleton of Science(Boulding, 1956)

14. Service Systems, Natural Systems General System Theory: The Skeleton of Science(Boulding, 1956)

15. Service Systems, Natural Systems General System Theory: The Skeleton of Science (Boulding, 1956)

16. T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth Many cultures Many disciplines Many systems (understanding & communications) BREADTH Deep in one culture Deep in one discipline Deep in one system DEPTH (analytic thinking & problem solving) 16

17. Specialization has benefits Adam Smith: Division of Labor David Ricardo: Comparative Advantage

18. Knowledge: Individuals & Society Herbert Simon: Bounded Rationality Ben Jones: Burden of Knowledge

19. Technology has a cost • “The burden of knowledge” Cesar Hidalgo: Societal Knowledge

20. The limits of our individual knowledge

21. Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly China Broad Group: 30 Stories in 15 Days

22. Four measures • Innovativeness • Equity • Sustainability • Resiliency

23. Developed Market Nations (> $20K GDP/Capita) Emerging Market Nations (< $20K GDP/Capita) Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains • World as System of Systems • World (light blue - largest) • Nations (green - large) • States (dark blue - medium) • Cities (yellow - small) • Universities (red - smallest) • Cities as System of Systems • Transportation & Supply Chain • Water & Waste Recycling • Food & Products ((Nano) • Energy & Electricity • Information/ICT & Cloud (Info) • Buildings & Construction • Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment • Banking & Finance • Healthcare & Family (Bio) • Education & Professions (Cogno) • Government (City, State, Nation) • Nations: Innovation Opportunities • GDP/Capita (level and growth rate) • Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)

24. Universities Worldwide Accelerating Regional Development “When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”

25. Cities: land-population-energy-carbon Carlo Ratti: Senseable Cities

26. What improves Quality-of-Life? Service System Innovations * = US Labor % in 2009. 20/10/10 2/7/4 A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) 1. Transportation & supply chain 2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment 3. Food & products manufacturing 4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech 5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access) B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*) 6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) 7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*) 8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*) 9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*) 10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*) C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) 11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax) 12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax) 13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax) 2/1/1 7/6/1 1/1/0 5/17/27 1/0/2 24/24/1 2/20/24 7/10/3 5/2/2 3/3/1 0/0/0 1/2/2 0/19/0 Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities “61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”

27. Systems that govern Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that support people’s activities transportation & supply chain ICT & cloud retail & hospitality healthcare & family city secure food & products education &work state scale nation laws energy & electricity water & waste building & construction banking & finance behavioral sciences People Technology Information Organizations Customer Provider Authority Competitors resources stakeholders e.g., marketing management sciences Observe Stakeholders (As-Is) e.g., operations political sciences e.g., public policy learning sciences e.g., game theory and strategy cognitive sciences e.g., psychology system sciences Observe Resource Access (As-Is) e.g., industrial eng. information sciences e.g., computer sci organization sciences e.g., knowledge mgmt social sciences History (Data Analytics) Future (Roadmap) change Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become) e.g., econ & law decision sciences e.g., stats & design run professions Run Transform (Copy) Innovate (Invent) e.g., knowledge worker value Realize Value (To-Be) transform professions e.g., consultant innovate professions e.g., entrepreneur systems Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & Breadth disciplines

28. Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service Ryan Chin: Urban Mobility

29. Self-driving cars Steve Mahan: Test “Driver”

30. Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs: Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056 Nation For-profits U-BEE Job Creator/Sustainer State/Province City/Region Hospital Medical Research Cultural & Conference Hotels University College K-12 Non-profits Worker (professional) Family (household) Innovations Universities/ Regions Calculus (Cambridge/UK) Physics (Cambridge/UK) Computer Science (Columbia/NY) Microsoft (Harvard/WA) Yahoo (Stanford/CA) Google (Stanford/CA) Facebook (Harvard/CA) “The future is already here (at universities), it is just not evenlydistributed.” “The best way to predict the future is to (inspire the next generation of students to) build it better.” U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City

31. “service science is the transdisciplinary study of service systems & value-cocreation” The ABC’s: The provider (A) and a customer (B) transform a target (C) What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s? Design/ Cognitive Science Systems Engineering “a service system is a human-made system to improve provider-customer interactions and value-cocreation outcomes, by dynamically configuring resource access via value propositions, most often studied by many disciplines, one piece at a time.” Marketing Computer Science/ Artificial Intelligence Operations Economics & Law

32. A Framework for Global Civil Society • Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society. • John Sexton, President NYU

33. Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA • Upcoming Conferences • July 2012 • ISSS San Jose • HSSE San Francisco • More Information • Blog • www.service-science.info • Twitter • @JimSpohrer • Presentations • www.slideshare.net/spohrer • Email • spohrer@us.ibm.com

34. Thank-You! Questions? “Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM “If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org “Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU “Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli “The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson “The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay “Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer “Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge “History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells “The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov “Think global, act local.” – Geddes • Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer • Innovation Champion & • Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) WW • spohrer@us.ibm.com

35. IBM’s Leadership Changes IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide • 2011 Financials • Revenue - $ 106.9B • Net Income - $ 15.9B • EPS - $ 13.44 • Net Cash - $16.6B 22% of IBM’s revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 11% in 2011 More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office 55% of IBM’s Workforce is New to the company in the last 5 years IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe Number 1 in patent generation for 19 consecutive years ; 6,180 US patents awarded in 2011 100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011 The Smartest Machine On Earth 5 Nobel Laureates 9 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest award for Blue Gene Supercomputer “Let’s Build a Smarter Planet"

36. AEIOU of sciences – service science • Abstract Entities – service systems • Learning to apply knowledge to compete & cooperate • Interactions – value propositions • Outcome Universals – value-cocreation (or not) • Increasing capabilities and quality-of-life for individuals Cities compete & cooperate Universities compete & cooperate

37. Crash The Industrial Revolution Irruption Frenzy Synergy Maturity Installation Deployment Panic 1797 1 Age of Steam and Railways • Formation of Mfg. industry • Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade 1771 1829 Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering Panic 1847 1829 2 • Standards on gauge, time • Catalog sales companies • Economies of scale 1873 Depression 1893 Age of Oil, Automobiles and Mass Production • Urban development • Support for interventionism 3 1875 1920 Age of Information and Telecommunications • Build-out of Interstate highways • IMF, World Bank, BIS 4 1908 1974 Crash 1929 Credit Crisis 2008 5 Coming period of Institutional Adjustment and Production Capital 1971 ~250 years of infrastructure transformations Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).

38. ~100 years of US job transformations Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

39. We need better frameworks, theories, and models of… Cultural Information (Quality-of-Life Measures) • Four I’s • Infrastructure • Individuals • Institutions • Information • Four Measures • Innovativeness • Equity • Sustainability • Resiliency Individuals (Skills) Institutions (Rules, Jobs) Societal Infrastructure (Technologies & Environment)

40. L Do It Invent It Copy It Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge March, J.G.  (1991)  Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning.  Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87. Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.

41. California Human Development Report 2011:From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life…. http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf

42. Imagining quality-of-life innovations…

43. What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities… Kurzweilai.net