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Our Turn, Our Time Chicago Innovation Awards Dinner 9/20/10. Stop the Excuses, Start Believing. “The press never builds up our heros”. “Chicago’s Culture is too conser- vative.”. “We’ve tried before And we’ll never make It work here”. “Meatpackers & farmers…” . “Archipelago was
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Stop the Excuses, Start Believing “The press never builds up our heros” “Chicago’s Culture is too conser- vative.” “We’ve tried before And we’ll never make It work here” “Meatpackers & farmers…” “Archipelago was in Chicago?” “We don’t have the capital (or don’t have the entrepreneurs.” “It’s the flyover zone” “There no support network or community.” It’s Our Time, It’s Our Turn
Ideas Don’t Know Geography Or Time But Rather Are Willed into Existence “What is the most contagious parasite? An idea. From the tiniest seed, it spreads like a virus…” -- Inception
Chicago Has a Tradition of RebirthIndustrials to Airlines to Mobile to Genomics to Internet San Fran Had It’s Earthquake Chicago Had It’s Fire
Internet Enabled B2B/B2C Cleantech/ Nanotech Financial Technology Interactive Marketing Medical Technology Five Sectors We Are World-class
Significant Midwest Exits Increasing In Size & Number $21.4B $6.5B $4.4B $3.2B $3.2B Empim, Inc. Diverse Industries from E-Commerce to Medical Device Exits Above $100M
Fortune 500 Customers Are Here There are 141 of the 500 in the Midwest Diverse Economic Base Consumer Packaged Goods Busch, Kellogg, Kraft, Proctor & Gamble, Wrigley, SAB Miller Financial Services CNA Financial, CSFB, Northern Trust, William Blair Health Care Technology Abbott, Baxter, Eli Lilly, Guidant, Medtronic, Stryker Hospitals Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, Northwestern, U of Chicago Insurance Allstate, Aon, Nationwide, Progressive, State Farm Legal Baker MacKinzie, Piper Rudnick, Sidley Austin Manufacturing Boeing, Caterpillar, Ford, General Motors, Johnson Controls Media Charter Communications, Tribune Retail Best Buy, Kmart, McDonald’s, Target, Walgreens, Kohl’s Services ADP, H&R Block, Laidlaw, Manpower, ServiceMaster Technology Accenture, CDW, 3M, Motorola, NCR, Rockwell, Tellabs Transportation GATX, Northwest, Schneider, Union Pacific, United Airlines Utilities Detroit Edison, Exelon Government City of Chicago, State of Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin
The Entrepreneurs’ Employment Act • 1) Law of Exponentials • 2) Technologies 15 Year Cycle • 3) Black Swan • 4) Rule of Tech’s Counter Cyclicality
Technology Adoption Is AcceleratingEven On A Logarithmic Scale 8
You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet… Destructive Capitalism Has Always Driven Innovation over the past 100 years US highway system, nylon, radar, PC, microwave oven, antibiotics, recombinant DNA, airflight/jets, space program, global electric & phone systems, universal access to education, integrated circuit, articial heart, fusion/atomic bomb, polio vaccine, electron microscopes, cell phones, radio, television, air conditioning, lasers, imaging, fiber optics, eBay, online payments, etc… “The next 20 years of change will be equivalent to the past 100 years of change.” -- Ray Kurzweil Accelerating Returns
The New Normal? Depression?Reregulation, Deleveraging, DeglobalizationTechnology’s 15 Year Macro Trend is Counter-Cyclical We are here Minicomputers DEC ascends Early 1970’s PC’s Wintel Era 1985 Internet Google, eBay 2000 Social Net Mobile Cleantech 2015 Mainframes IBM’s World 1950-60’s
What Is A Black Swan? • A black swan is: • A rare event • With high-impact • Hard to predict (pattern attributed post event) • Examples include: • 9/11 • 1987 stock market crash • Penicillin • eBay, Paypal
Why Are They Important • A small number of events explain most of the world’s developments • Infinite white swans prove nothing, but one black swan negates entire theories • Unstructured randomness, not planned approaches, have led to most significant discoveries • Negative black swan’s have cataclysmic & dire consequences • Positive black swan’s drive exponential improvements in life • Evolution occurs on the fringes (mutation)
You Think Our Economy Stinks …Try a 22 Year Depression
What Makes You All Special • Scrappy and cash efficient • Maniacally focused on customer needs • Humble and acknowledges weaknesses • Cooperative and community based • Healthy paranoia • Local sanctuary, national battleground • Straight forward and sincere