4 th Annual Strategy and Security Conference

1. 4th Annual Strategy and Security Conference Challenges & Threats:the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Philip Worré Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe 8 March 2013

2. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Presentation • Introduction • Security Dimension • Political & Strategic Dimension • The Future… Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

3. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance • Introduction Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

4. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Introduction • Twoways of lookingatsubject • « Alliance » • Transatlantic alliance • Two Parts • Definedsecuritythreats and challenges • Political/strategicthreats and challenges Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

5. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Introduction • Transatlantic alliance • Washington Treaty • Up to end of Cold War • US umbrella • Limited Europeancapabilities • Post Cold Warera • Ex-Yugoslavia • Development of autonomousEuropeanCapabilites Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

6. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Introduction • NATO and EU: Main actors • Transatlanticalliance vital for Europe’ssecurity • NATO’sroleenshrined in LisbonTreaty • EU-NATO cooperation – Berlin Plus • Advantages of EU-NATO cooperation • Multiplication of options in crisis management response • Financial crisis: pooling & sharing/SDI Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

7. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Introduction • Last decade: evolution in the understanding and definition of global threats • No state border and non-state actors • Dimensions: political, economic, social and environmental • Hybridthreats: “are those posed by adversaries, with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives.” (NATO ACT) Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

8. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance • Security Dimension Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

9. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security Dimension • Emerging Security Challenges • Terrorism • Proliferation of WMDs • Cyber attacks • Piracy and maritime security • Energy and environmentalsecurity • State failure Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

10. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security Dimension • NATO’sresponse • Emerging Security Challenges Division (ESCD) createdwithin NATO international staff in August 2010 • Broughttogethervariousexistingfields of expertise into a single division • Stucturalresponse to hybrid, inter-related and cross-cuttingthreats • Fruit of severalyears of discussions, consulting, debates and analysis Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

11. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security Dimension • European Union • Approach: fragmented and lesscoordinated • Developedsectorial action programmes • Draftedresolutions and threat-specificstrategies • Confronted to hurdles • « Soft Power » dimension Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

12. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security Dimension • Key EU documents • European Security Strategy • (2003) • Terrorism • Proliferation of WMDs • RegionalConflicts • State Failure • Organised Crime • Report on the Implementation of the ESS (2008) • Terrorism • Proliferation of WMDs • Organised Crime • Cyber Security • Energy Security • Climate Change • Internal Security Strategy • (2010) • Terrorism • Serious and organised crime • Cyber-crime • Cross-border crime • Violence itself • Natural and man-madedisasters Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

13. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security Dimension • Institutional complexity • CFSP and CSDP • Decision-making process • Leader, enabler or follower according to issue • Role of the EU in global security • Focus on immediate neighbourhood • Mandate of EU as security actor Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

14. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security Dimension • Security threats – common points • Unpredictable • Changing/evolving nature • Cross-dimensional • Response defined in a strategy • Beyond: political and strategic challenge • Main challenge to the future of the Transatlantic Alliance: relevance

15. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance • Political & Strategic Dimension

16. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Relevance • How to remain relevant in a world of emerging • Global powers • Middle powers • Nuclear states • Regional security organisations • Powerful communication technology

17. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Backdrop • Financial Crisis • Capability gaps • Decrease in political will (crisis management) • Increasingly involved public opinion

18. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Relevance is a “must” • Credibility • Failed/lack of intervention – less deterrence • Not omnipotence • One’s voice should be heard • Credible solutions to conflict management • Selected examples of challenges

19. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Global Powers • China • Increased militarisation • Rise of tensions territorial waters • Insatiable appetite for natural resources • Economic superpower • Increased projection power • Increased participation in crisis management operations

20. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Global Powers • India • Increasing projection power • From regional sphere of influence to global

21. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Middle Powers • South Korea • Desire for more autonomy • Militarised– hard power • Wants to develop its political power • Fully assumes its new status

22. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Regional Security Organisations • Africa • AU • ECOWAS – broadening of mandate • Still in cooperation with transatlantic actors • SCO • ASEAN

23. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Nuclear Powers • Iran • Technological development • P5+1 Talks stalled • Expanding its capabilities • North Korea • Provocative • Satellite launch • Nuclear tests • Sanctions not working

24. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Importance of Asia in 21st century • Recognised by the US • “Pivot to Asia” • Participation in 2012 ASEAN summit • Attempt to remain relevant • Recognised by Russia • Question for Europe? • “What does the ‘Pivot’ mean for EU-US relations?” • “What about us?” • Fear

25. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Question of NATO and solidarity? • Relevance of Art. V • No more large scale “Afghanistan-type” responses under Art. V • Pre-2001 and Post-2001 Art. V • Meaning? • Loss of solidarity?

26. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Regional action • Arab Spring • Enthusiasm • Moderate enthusiasm • Hesitation and reluctance • Shift in public opinion – perceived lack of coherent action/policy • EU’s role • Libya – efforts stalled • Mali – late action

27. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Challenge not only external • Within Europe and North America: changing dynamics • New technology - Public opinion • War posted on Youtube • More informed – facts, dates, data, statistics • More dis-/misinformed • No such thing as “raw” material • Everyone has an opinion • Impact of “Wikileaks” – tension, distrust • Civil society pushing for increased oversight • More informed, more critical

28. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Additional factor: Financial Crisis • Major impact • Defence industry • Defence budgets • Increasing oversight and supervision on private practices • Catalyst – loss of relevance • Decreased national military capabilities

29. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Internal systemic issues • Current crisis management tools • Designed according to institution’s strategy • Could work, but don’t • Example: EU battlegroups • Never deployed • Commitment gap • Internal institutional challenges

30. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension • Additional factor: Financial Crisis • Loss of trust, increased gap between governing bodies and public opinion • Reflected during elections – populism / extremism • Impact at the highest levels

31. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance • The Future…

32. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance The Future… • Challenging • No miracle solution: realisationthat we live in a different world • Remaining relevant • Take full advantage of opportunities

33. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance The Future… • Accept presence of other actors • Cooperate in spirit of trust • Identify common goals • Work together • Military Exercises / Exchanges • Crisis management cooperation • Anti-piracy Horn of Africa operations

34. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance The Future… • Accept presence of other actors • Cooperate in spirit of trust • Understanding of the “other” • Maintain pragmatic approach • Create constructive atmosphere • Be active and involved • Provide mediation and communication channels • P5+1 Talks / 6 Party Talks

35. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance The Future… • Crisis Management: recreate tools adapted to our contemporary world • Pragmatic approach • “Comprehensive” / CivMil • Easily deployable units • Including decision-making process • Clear mandate • Define what “alliance” means • Important for all to understand • Define NATO’s/EU’s mission/role

36. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance The Future… • Consolidate the acquisand reinforce transatlantic alliance through other means • US-EU FTA • Develop SDI / P&S initiatives • Crisis provides opportunities • Take public opinion / civil society into account • Take initiative in informing • Prevent someone else from doing it • Development of public diplomacy actions • Oversight/Responsibility • Communication is crucial

37. Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance • Questions

38. 4th Annual Strategy and Security Conference Challenges & Threats:the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Philip Worré Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe director@isis-europe.eu