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Expert Consultation on Infectiousness of Organisms Studied in the NEIDL Risk Assessment

Expert Consultation on Infectiousness of Organisms Studied in the NEIDL Risk Assessment. Organizers. Sam Bozzette Kelly Fennington Tetra Tech Ken Bulman Frank Gallegos Adi Gundlapalli Wiley Schell Damon Toth. Needed Parameters. Infectivity

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Expert Consultation on Infectiousness of Organisms Studied in the NEIDL Risk Assessment

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  1. Expert Consultation on Infectiousness of Organisms Studied in the NEIDL Risk Assessment

  2. Organizers • Sam Bozzette • Kelly Fennington • Tetra Tech • Ken Bulman • Frank Gallegos • Adi Gundlapalli • Wiley Schell • Damon Toth

  3. Needed Parameters • Infectivity • Need likelihood of infection after aerosol exposure • No good human data exists (e.g. no experiments) • Estimate dose-response curve • ID50 • ID10, ID90 for shape of curve • Transmissibility • Reasonable estimates for Roexist for 5 organisms undergoing 2o modeling • Team sought validation of their estimates

  4. Needed Parameters (cont.) • Vulnerability • Great public interest in vulnerability of key populations • Generalized data do not exist • Estimate 4 groups: • < 5 y.o. • > 65 y.o. • HIV/AIDS • pregnant • Stability in air • Key for determining effective exposures outside of the labs • Specific data poor (e.g., UV data generally on liquids) • Estimate half-lives on cool moist night and hot sunny day

  5. Panelists

  6. Modified Delphi Method • Approach • Distribute information • Anonymous voting • Feeding back of group and own results • Re-vote • This application • Literature search and summaries distributed (articles made available) • Preliminary round of electronic voting (5/8 panelists) • In-person meeting for discussion, voting (6/8 panelists attended; 2 voted later) • Additional round of voting (8/8 panelists)

  7. 2nd Round Feedback:Andes Hantavirus ID50

  8. Results: Infectivity

  9. Results: Transmissibility

  10. Results: Vulnerability

  11. Results: Stability

  12. Conclusions • Modified Delphi could be implemented to estimate key parameters for NEIDL Risk Assessment • Reasonable convergence occurred • Reasonable estimates resulted

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