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NEIDL RISK ASSESSMENT

NEIDL RISK ASSESSMENT. ACCIDENT SEQUENCE ANALYSES. Overview of Tetra Tech Teams. Risk Assessment Team (John Lambright and Ken Bulmahn) Focus is on accident phenomena Human Health and Ecology Team (Wiley Schell) Focus is on pathogen biology and disease characteristics

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NEIDL RISK ASSESSMENT

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  1. NEIDL RISK ASSESSMENT ACCIDENT SEQUENCE ANALYSES

  2. Overview of Tetra Tech Teams • Risk Assessment Team (John Lambright and Ken Bulmahn) • Focus is on accident phenomena • Human Health and Ecology Team (Wiley Schell) • Focus is on pathogen biology and disease characteristics • Utah Modeling Team (Adi Gundlapalli and Damon Toth) • Focus is on initial infections and secondary transmission • Threat Assessment Team (Frank Gallegos and Joe Wood) • Focus is on malevolent acts

  3. Process Overview 1. Identify candidate accidents (RA + HHE) 2. Select accident-pathogen pairs for analysis(RA + HHE) 3. Analyze accident sequence and release(RA + HHE) 4. Quantitative health effects I (Modeling) 5. Quantitative health effects II (Modeling) 6. Characterize risk (all)

  4. Review of site characteristics • Natural phenomena (e.g., earthquake) • External events (e.g., aircraft crash) • Analyses of similar facilities • GNL EIS • NBAF EIS • LANL BSL-3 EIS • LLNL EA • Previous NEIDL studies • FEIS • DSRASSA • Review of NEIDL design and operating plans • 25% RA • Current review • Experience at other BSL-3/4 labs • Attach. 8 of 25% RA • Additional info List of candidate accidents Step 1: Identify Candidate Accidents

  5. Step 2: Select Accidents for Analysis List of candidate accidents (Step 1 Product) Exposed groups Assign categories to each accident Exposure pathways Location Maximum reasonably foreseeable accident(s) (40 CFR 1502.22) Representative accidents for each group, pathway, and location Accidents specific to pathogens or sites List of accidents to be analyzed 5

  6. Step 2: Select Accidents (cont’d) Initial exposure pathways Direct contact Ingestion Inhalation Sharps puncture Animal and arthropod related 6 • Categories: • Relevant location • BSL-3 • BSL-4 • Other areas • Exposed groups • Laboratory worker • Facility worker • Public • Environment

  7. Conceptual Example of Accident Selection for BSL-3

  8. Step 3: Analyze Accident Sequences • Determine frequency category • Using ranges because of uncertainty, a typical NEPA approach • Based on operating experience where possible • Includes initiating event plus failure of biocontainment elements

  9. Step 3: Analyze Accident Sequences(cont’d) 9 • Categorize each candidate accident: • Frequency Categories

  10. Step 3: Analyze Accident Sequences(cont’d) • Determine consequence category • Defining categories based on number of people potentially exposed • Using ranges to account for uncertainty • Separate categories for each exposed group

  11. Step 3: Analyze Accident Sequences(cont’d) 11 • Categorize each candidate accident: • Consequence Categories

  12. Step 3: Analyze Accident Sequences(cont’d) • Characterize exposure for each relevant pathogen • Estimate the number of particles released based on relevant experimental data • Account for mitigating features (e.g., HEPAs) and conditions (dilution) • Results will be presented as a range of particles (typically with a low of 0) to account for uncertainties

  13. Conceptual Example of Results

  14. Conceptual Example of Results (cont’d) 14

  15. Conceptual Example of Results (cont’d) 15

  16. Status Preliminary list of accidents has been identified Centrifuge accident analysis has been completed and is being reviewed Earthquake analysis is underway Accident analyses are prioritized to support modeling

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