The Latest Science on Energy Based Solutions for Climate Change

1. The Latest Science on Energy Based Solutionsfor Climate Change Professor William Moomaw Tufts University Earth Day 2004

2. Multiple Reasons for Energy Technology and Fuel Choices • Effectiveness and appropriateness to task • Economic cost • Reliability • Convenience • **************************** • National Security and global political stability • Job creation • Human health and safety • Environmental Consequences including climate change

3. Sources of Heat Trapping Gases • Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, iron, aluminum, ammonia and cement • Methane from agriculture (livestock and rice), waste disposal (landfills and sewage treatment), leakage of natural gas • Nitrous oxide from nitrogen fertilizer and industrial production of nylon and nitric acid • Deforestation, forest fires and loss of carbon from agricultural soils • Fires in forests, coal mines and from gas flaring

4. Growth in Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Combustion

14. Major Indicators of Current Climate Change • Average global temperature has risen by 1o F in past 100 years with high latitude increases of 4o F • Seasons in the US and Europe have shifted by one week in past 50 years • Precipitation patterns are changing • Species are migrating higher and towards the poles

15. Sea level has risen by 6-8” in the past century and is proceeding at a rate of more than an inch a decade • More than 95% of world’s glaciers are retreating • Polar sea ice has thinned by more than 40% in 30 years, and coastal ice shelves are disintegrating • Permafrost is warming and melting rapidly, destroying buildings and roads, and could disrupt Alaska oil pipeline

16. How Can We Assess Technologies? • Many technologies have been evaluated under controlled conditions by industry, government and university researchers for their performance, cost and effectiveness in reducing heat trapping gases and other pollutants. • These studies have been reviewed by independent energy and engineering experts, and additional tests have been conducted.

17. Identify Emissions by Sector 1995 (IPCC) Global shareAnnual growth • Building sector 31% (+1.0%/year) • Transport sector 22% (+2.4%/year) • Industrial sector 43% (+0.4%/year) • Agricultural sector 4% (+0.6%/year) • {Electric power 31% for generation Note this is included in first four categories}

18. Basic Strategies • Make existing emitting technologies more efficient in the use and production of energy • Change processes to reduce non-energy emissions from industry and agriculture • Shift to new technologies and fuels that emit little or no heat trapping gases • Sequester carbon dioxide in forests, soils or geological reservoirs

19. Identify Effective Strategies • Reduce emissions of heat trapping gases by utilizing technologies that are more efficient • Shift standards and incentives to construct buildings that use 30-70% less energy for heating and cooling • Purchase appliances that use 10-80% less energy

20. Identify Effective Strategies • Build electric power generating systems that use 30% less fuel, or which utilize currently wasted heat from coal and natural gas power plants for heating and cooling • Buy vehicles that get 50 to 100% more miles per gallon • Shift to cost effective industrial processes that use 50% less energy and release much less process gases • Improve agriculture and waste management practices

21. Buildings (31%) (potential reductions 30-70%) • Orientation to optimize use of sun and wind for passive heating, cooling and ventilation • Effective insulation to reduce need for excess heating or cooling • Efficient, well located windows that reduce need for artificial lighting, and maintain appropriate temperatures in all seasons • Controlled ventilation with heat recovery • Cost of saving 40% of energy use is one-fifth the cost of supplying that energy

22. Where do we spend $ on our home energy bills?

23. Energy Star Refrigerators I • “Replacing a 10-year old refrigerator bought in 1990 with a new ENERGY STAR qualified model would save enough energy to light the average household for over three months and (prevent) over 300 pounds of pollution each year.” • Improving energy efficiency standards have driven this efficiency improvement trend.

24. Energy Star Refrigerators II • Electricity cost savings are $120 per year, while additional purchase price is $100-$200. • Economic payback is eight years or less. • Purchase stimulates the economy and create jobs. • Provides air pollution and global warming benefits through lower energy use • Protects ozone layer by replacing CFCs.

25. Appliance Efficiency Improvement

26. Appliance Efficiency Information

27. Efficient Appliances -Washers • Most efficient clothes washer uses 70% less electricity than does least efficient available. • Spins clothes drier, thereby reducing drier time and energy use • It uses 85% less water, saving 16,000 gallons per year • It gets clothes cleaner • It costs twice as much

28. Transportation(22%)(potential reductions 50-100%) • Transportation accounts for 22% of global carbon dioxide emissions and 33% of US emissions. • It is the fastest growing sector in terms of emissions. • Transportation depends on petroleum for 97% of its fuel

29. History of Vehicle Efficiency Gains • Following the oil shocks, US autos doubled efficiency from 13.5 mpg to 27.5 mpg in 10 years. • Air pollution emissions dropped by 90%, and vehicles are available today that have reduced pollution by 99%. • Safety increased through improved crash resistance, seat belts and air bags. • Power and performance increased

30. Potential for Future Gains • Current technologies could increase auto & light truck fuel efficiency in the near term by 50-100% without changing weight, size or performance. • Hybrid gasoline electric • Continuously variable transmission • Improved tires and aerodynamics • Shift from gasoline to new diesel for 25% improvement • Weight reductions could bring about additional savings by a similar, additional factor. • Heavy trucks could increase efficiency 60% • Fuel cells are low emitting, but in 10 yrs.

31. Industrial Emissions (43%)(potential reductions of 10-65%) • Industry accounts for 43% of all carbon dioxide emissions, but emissions are falling by 0.8% per year in industrial countries. • In the industrial world, carbon dioxide from industry decreased by 9% between 1971 and 1995, even though energy use rose 17% and industrial output doubled. • Energy and CO2 emissions are falling in China by similar amounts as inefficient, uncompetitive industries are replaced.

32. Identify Fuel and Technology Switching Strategies • Shift from high to low carbon dioxide emitting fuels – • COAL ( 1.0x ) • OIL (0.75x) • NATURAL GAS (0.5x) • PLANT BASED FUELS ( 0.0 - 0.7x ) • SOLAR, WIND, GEOTHERMAL, AND • NUCLEAR ( 0.0-0.2)

33. Relative CO2 Emissions to Produce the Same Energy

34. Electric Power Production (2000) • Coal generates 38% of global electricity (55% in US) but produces 70% of world’s electric power CO2. • Natural gas generates 18% of global electricity and 19% of electric power CO2. • Oil generates 9% of global electricity and 11% of electricity CO2. • Hydropower, nuclear power and renewable sources produce 35% of global electricity and no direct CO2.

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36. Trends in Electric Power • Natural gas turbines are 25- 50% more efficient than coal based steam and produce only 40% as much CO2 per unit of electricity • Concern over natural gas supply and prices • Over 90% of proposed new power plants in US are gas turbines • No new large coal or nuclear plants have been built in past 10 years and oil is being phased out as an electricity generating fuel. • Deregulation favors low cost power stations such as gas over nuclear power

37. Wind Generated Electric Power • Wind is the fastest growing electric power source in percentage terms increasing at 25%/year. • Installed wind capacity passed 31,000 MW by end of 2002 - three years ahead of predictions. • Over 20% of electricity in Denmark and parts of Germany are now supplied by wind. • The US had 90% of wind electric capacity in 1990, but dropped to third place behind Germany and Spain last year. • Plains states and off-shore wind parks have great potential for production of wind electricity at a cost of 4cents/kwh which is competitive with clean coal.

38. World Electricity Generation by Type 2000 (Worldwatch Inst.) Hydro Fossil Fuels

39. Global Trends in Energy 1992-2002

40. Agriculturally Based Fuels • Develop a crop based liquid transportation fuels program to produce alcohol and biodiesel from crops grown in the US and from sugar cane in tropical countries to reduce our dependence on oil based fuels. • Provide tradable credits for adding carbon to soils and forests

41. Multiple Benefits of Biofuels • Creates jobs, lowers dependence on unstable regions of the world for petroleum, promotes trade, adds value to US economy, increases farm incomes, reduces need for farm subsidies - and lowers CO2 emissions.

42. An Integrated Economic Rural Development Strategy • Develop large wind turbine generation capacity on agricultural lands and public or private rangelands in Great Plains states - Also continue to produce grain and cattle. • Develop international alcohol auto fuel from sugar cane for tropical developing countries

43. Economic Implications of Emissions Reductions • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has verified hundreds of currently existing technologies and measures capable of slowing and reversing the rise in greenhouse gases. • The technological potential exists to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 30% world-wide by 2010. • Half of these reductions could be achieved at a savings or zero cost, the remainder would cost zero to the equivalent of 25 cents/gal. gasoline.

44. Addressing Climate Change and Reducing Dependence on Geopolitically Vulnerable Oil • Alternatives to fossil fuels can increase reliability and decrease our vulnerability to disruption from political instability, accidents, natural disasters and terrorist attacks. • Less oil dependence reduces global tensions: Distribution of Conventional Global Oil Reserves • U.S. 4% • Canada 3% • Russia & FSU 6% • Persian Gulf 66% • Other (Nigeria, Venezuela, etc) 21%

45. Meeting Climate, Security and Economic Goals • It is possible to introduce new technology in the natural replacement cycle of capital stock such as cars, appliances, buildings and power plants that substantially reduce heat trapping gas emissions. • Choices can be made that increase national security and global political stability, provide jobs and improve the economy of the United States.

46. National Energy Policy Initiative • In March 2002,a non-partisan, independent group of energy experts released a report on Capitol Hill. • They suggested that America could meet our long-term energy and national security goals while addressing climate change by developing policies supportive of new technologies and practices. • The plan has been endorsed by former members of the Carter, Reagan, first Bush and Clinton administrations along with 75 additional energy experts from industry and universities. • http://www.nepinitiative.org/

47. More Information To find out more: www.tufts.edu/tci tci@tufts.edu http://www.ipcc.ch http://www.nepinitiative.org