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Alert Review

Alert Review. ERCOT ROS September 13, 2007 John Dumas. Objective. Review of Alert triggers and actions Number of Alerts Day Ahead average Load Forecast during the Alert compared to average Actual Load during the Alert

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Alert Review

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  1. Alert Review ERCOT ROS September 13, 2007 John Dumas

  2. Objective • Review of Alert triggers and actions • Number of Alerts • Day Ahead average Load Forecast during the Alert compared to average Actual Load during the Alert • Day Ahead Planned Online Capability at the start of the Alert versus Actual Online Capability at the start of the Alert • Remove the Wind Forecast Error by using Actual Wind Output

  3. ALERT ACTIONS • List of Actions when Adjusted Responsive is equal to or less than 2500 MW • Deploy Non-Spin Reserve • Start RMR units available in the time frame of the emergency. RMR units should be loaded to full capability. • Suspend resource testing. • OOM Quick Start units online • OOM units that have 30 minute or less lead time as necessary

  4. Frequency of OOMC/E for ARRS < 2,500 MW • Examined 1/1 to 8/20/07 • 22,272 total intervals • 793 intervals (3.56%)* with OOMC for ARRS < 2,500 MW • 38 days examined • A total of 50 days in which an Alert was issued * Due to inconsistencies in ERCOT logs, there may be a small number of intervals with OOMC/E for ARRS < 2,500 that were not captured in this list.

  5. Actual Load & Capacity compared to Planned Load & Capacity *Please note: Actual Load – Day Ahead Forecast Load (+ sign = under forecast) ** (Actual online Capacity – Day-Ahead RPRS Procurement Capacity)

  6. Actual Load & Capacity compared to Planned Load & Capacity *Please note: Actual Load – Day Ahead Forecast Load (+ sign = under forecast) ** (Actual online Capacity – Day-Ahead RPRS Procurement Capacity)

  7. Actual Load & Capacity compared to Planned Load & Capacity *Please note: Actual Load – Day Ahead Forecast Load (+ sign = under forecast) ** (Actual online Capacity – Day-Ahead RPRS Procurement Capacity)

  8. Difference in Day Ahead Planned Wind Output at the start of the Alert and Actual Wind Output for select days

  9. Summary • The Day-Ahead Load Forecast during the Alert periods was 103 MW over the Actual average load during the Alert periods • The Planned Online Capability was 1190 MW higher on average than the Actual Online Capability at the start of the Alert • There were days that ERCOT went into Alert Status even though the Day-Ahead Load Forecast was high • The Difference between Day Ahead Planned Wind Output and Actual Wind Output would increase the error between Planned Online Capability and Actual Online Capability

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