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2022 PC2 In-State CA RPS Net-Short Sensitivity

Study Results California In-State Net-Short California Out-State Net-Short California Out-State Net-Short w SWIP N.

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2022 PC2 In-State CA RPS Net-Short Sensitivity

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  1. Study ResultsCalifornia In-State Net-ShortCalifornia Out-State Net-ShortCalifornia Out-State Net-Short w SWIP N This slide deck contains results from the 2011 TEPPC Study Program. This study shows the results of moving renewable resources inside and outside of California and there transmission impacts.

  2. 2022 PC2 In-State CA RPS Net-Short Sensitivity • Central Question: What is the impact on transmission congestion and generation dispatch of replacing out-of-state resources assumed in the California (CA) renewable resource portfolio in the 2022 Common Case with additional in-state resources? • Change to starting input assumptions: • Loads – None • Transmission System – None • Generation – 6,201 GWh of out-of-state CA RPS resources replaced by in-state renewables

  3. 2022 Common Case In-state vs. Out-of-state CA Net-short Resources • Net short calculation: • RPS requirement (33% of eligible retail sales) = 88,268 GWh less Existing renewables as of 12/31/2010 = 42,826 GWh Net short = 45,442 GWh • In-state net-short resources = 33,889 GWh, or 74% of total net-short resources

  4. Utilized CA CPUC modified cost-constrained resource stack Did not adjust TEPPC under-construction resources Did not adjust CPUC discounted core resources Resulting out-of-state resources replaced: 1,787 MW for 6,201 GWh New in-state/out-of-state split by energy: 87%/13% Strategy for Removing Out-of-State Resources Net Zero

  5. Strategy for Adding In-state RPS Resources • Utilized CA CPUC modified cost-constrained resource stack • Selected only in-state resources • Portfolio mix of additional in-state resources: 1,078 MW for 6,201 GWh Net Zero

  6. Out-of-state CA RPS resources removed from analysis, replaced by additional in-state RPS resources No deficits resulted Resulting Load/Generation Balance Load Gen

  7. 2022 CA In-State Net Short Results – Changes in Total Annual Generation

  8. 2022 CA In-State Net Short Results – Changes in Generation by State Removed (wind)

  9. Small change in Region-to-Region Transfers

  10. Small Changes to CA Imports/Exports

  11. Small Changes in Transmission Utilization Most Heavily Utilized Paths Increases in U90 Relative to Common >5% Case Indicated in Red P01 Alberta-British Columbia P03 Northwest-British Columbia P08 Montana to Northwest P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip P29 Intermountain-Gonder P27 IPP DC Line P60 Inyo-Control P26 Northern-Southern California P61 Lugo-Victorville *NEW* P47 – Southern New Mexico P45 SDG&E-CFE

  12. 2011 Study Program Results PC2 In-State CA RPS Net-Short SensitivityQuestions?

  13. 2022 PC3 Out-of-State CA RPS Net-Short Sensitivity • Central Question: What is the impact on transmission congestion and generation dispatch of replacing in-state resources assumed in the California (CA) renewable resource portfolio in the 2022 Common Case with additional out-of-state resources? • Change to starting input assumptions: • Loads – None • Transmission System – None • Generation – 11,168 GWh of in-state CA RPS resources replaced by out-of-state renewables

  14. Utilized CA CPUC modified cost-constrained resource stack Did not adjust TEPPC under-construction resources Did not adjust CPUC discounted core resources Resulting in-state resources that could have been replaced: 4,720 MW for 15,709 GWh 11,168 GWh (3,265 MW) of resources shifted for an in-state/out-of-state split (by energy) of 50%/50% Strategy for Identifying In-state RPS Resources to Replace More than in-state sensitivity (still net zero though)

  15. Strategy for Identifying Additional Out-of-state RPS Resources to Add • Utilized CA CPUC modified cost-constrained resource stack • Select only out-of-state resources • Portfolio mix of additional out-of-state resources: 4,710 MW for 11,168 GWh Net Zero

  16. In-state CA RPS resources removed from analysis, replaced by additional out-of-state RPS resources No deficits resulted Resulting Load/Generation Balance Load Gen

  17. 2022 CA OOS Net Short Results – Changes in Total Annual Generation ?

  18. Observed Large Generation Shift

  19. Significant Changes in Region to Region Transfers w/ SWIP N.

  20. Observed Key Changes in Transmission Utilization Most Heavily Utilized Paths Increases in U90 Relative to Common >5% Case Indicated in Red P01 Alberta-British Columbia P03 Northwest-British Columbia P08 Montana to Northwest P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip SWIP N P66 COI *NEW* P29 Intermountain-Gonder P27 IPP DC Line P60 Inyo-Control P26 Northern-Southern California P47 – Southern New Mexico P45 SDG&E-CFE

  21. SWIP North Utilization SWIP N COI 837 aMW 42% Average Utilization (2,000 MW limit) More transfers from NW into Idaho

  22. Questions or thoughts on this study?

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