Land Use Planning

1. Land Use Planning Making Physical Connections – Part 1

3. THE GREAT BARBECUE

4. THE FIRST STEP IS KNOWING WHERE YOU ARE

5. AND THEN – THE BASELINES

6. THE TOWNSHIP AND RANGE SYSTEM

7. HOW THE SECTIONS ARE ARRANGED

8. DESCRIBING WITHIN THE SECTIONS One Section – 640 Acres More Or Less

9. Location Exercise Purchaser: BEADLES RICHARD FRecord ID: 424214 Date: 03/24/1862Acres: 80 Price: $11.00 Type of sale: Railroad (RR) County: 41 Section: 8 Section Part: NWNE Township: 01S Range: 01E 3rd Meridian:3 Purchaser Res: Arch. Vol. No: 791 Vol. Page No.: 087 Cash warrant code:Record corrected: 0

10. Step 1 – Find Base Line01S Range: 01E Meridian:

11. Step 2 – Section 8

12. STEP 3 NWNE

13. GETTING THERE – THE AZIMUTH

14. UNDERLYING ELEMENT OF PHYSICAL PLANNING – CONTOUR MAPPING

15. CONTOUR MAPPING – THE RULES OF THE V’S

16. HOW IT IS ACTUALLY DONE

17. WHY IS IT SO IMPORTANT? • Storm Water Discharge Planning • Sewer and Water Installation • Transportation Development • Elevation indicates Soil Type • Soil Type dictates development pattern

18. FOR ROADS – IT’S FINDING THE RIDGE LINES

19. AND KEEPING THE SLOPE WITHIN A REASONABLE LEVEL

20. THE COOKBOOK MEASURE OF SLOPE Expression of Slope 0 – 3 percent (flat) 3 – 10 percent (moderate) 10 – 15 percent (special caution) 15 – 30 percent (only in California and Colorado) Over 30 percent (heart attack) When slope is expressed as a percent, it is the vertical rise / horizontal run

21. EXPRESSED AS A RATIO Slope can always be expressed as a ratio by dividing the horizontal run by the vertical rise 1:1 2:1 3:1 5:1 10:1 Vertical Rise Horizontal run

22. OTHER COOKBOOK FORMULAS FOR LAND USE PLANNING • ½ or less – Nothing feasible • ½ to 1 percent – large scale land uses such as industry, the big box, airports – BUT – major drainage and sewer flow problems • 1 ½ to 5 percent – nearly any land use can be sited • 3 percent is the upper limit for “no problem” heavy truck flow

23. UPPER SLOPE FORMULA • 5 – 10 percent is generally good for housing development and can be used for smaller scale industry, office and commercial • Many communities will not allow road development over 8 – 10 percent

24. HIGH SLOPE DEVELOPMENT • 10 – 15% can generally only be used for hillside residential development. Very special practices must be used for road, storm water, and sewer development. All other uses are economically impractical • 15 – 25% is used for very large lot residential development. Extreme costs can be expected

25. The Inventory • Current Land Data • SIC Codes – 2, 4, 6 digit • Land Based Classification System

26. SIC Codes • Nine one-digit groups - #3 Trade • 67 two digit groups – Retail> food • 294 three-digit groups • 772 four digit groups • 3457 six digit groups • Auxiliary groups

27. Example SIC Codes • 0259 - Egg farms – poultry except chicken and turkey • 0279 - Honey Production • 5999 - Hot tubs – retail • 3716 - Recreational Vehicles • 7377 - Computer Rentals • http://www.wave.net/upg/immigration/sic_index.html

28. Land Based System • Activity Codes • Function Codes • Ownerships Codes • Site Codes • Structure Codes • Classification Data Base

29. Product – Current Map • The land use • Structure Type • Age of structure • Condition • Conformance

30. Current Parcel Uses

31. Lot By Lot – Land Use

32. Building Condition Map

33. Next Step - Standards • Purpose – To compare our communities land use to current standards • Outcome – To pinpoint deficiencies • Link – To program needs into future land use plan

34. Journey To Land Use • When you come to a fork in the road – take it • Yogi Bera

35. Before Going On! • Three Characteristics of Population • Size (basic yardstick for space needs) • Composition (age, household type ..) • Spatial Distribution (where people are located)

36. Population Terms • Estimate – applies only to a time period between censuses or the current time • Projection – Is a set of methods to determine future population size based on past assumptions • Forecast – Effort to accurately predict a future population point based on modeled assumptions

37. Population Data • Primary Data – how do you obtain local primary data? • Secondary Data – Census?

38. Population Standards • Determine growth factors • Project population • Compare rates of growth/decrease with peers • Use comparative models to determine reasons for variance from peers

39. The Methods • The Big Four Methods • Trend Extrapolation • Ratio/Share • Disaggregate/simulation/component • Symptomatic Association

40. Trend Extrapolation • Quick – dirty – but generally works in normal populations • Linear Model • Exponential Change – compounding method. Rate of change is constant but the absolute change increases with compounding

41. Linear Series

42. Exponentials - Polynomials • Patterns of smaller and smaller incremental growth • Complicated patterns of growth change on regular frequencies • Explosive then incipient growth

43. Exponentials - Polynomials

44. Corridor Approach 34,300 ? 32,300 ?

45. Population Variants – Estimate Projection Intervals • Est. World Pop 1950 – 2,523 • Est. World Pop 1990 – 5,687 • Low Variant 2050 – 7,662 • Medium Variant 2050 – 9,366 • High Variant 2050 – 11,156 Logistic Curve

46. Ratio- Share • Used only to estimate the ratio of small unit population to a larger/known unit • Extraterritorial areas • CEA units

47. Disaggregate • Cohort – component method • Components of change methods – Chicago transportation/land model • Vacancy/housing estimate models

48. Fine Grained Cohort - Survival

49. Symptomatic Models • A statistical equation is applied to known indicators: • Jobs • Building permits • School Enrollment • Water/power consumption

50. Population Method Problems • Forecasting when you should be projecting • The long range fairy (25 years) • Very rapid gains • Small area analysis rather than city as a whole • Large area analysis rather than just the reporting district