Part 5

1. Part 5 Population

2. Objectives • 1. Analyze world human population growth and their implications. • 2. Interpret population issues from cultural, ethical, and national perspectives. • 3. Identify the role of women’s rights and education in reducing population rates. • 4. Understand the importance of education, human rights, and population control strategies.

3. Population • We are adding a billion people to the world’s population approximately every 15 years or less, which could lead to the UN’s upper projection of 11.9 billion by 2050. • The United Nations recommends a sustainable projection of 7.9 to 9.8 billion by 2050. • For population stabilization to occur, we have to address the interdependence of population, poverty, women’s rights and education, and the local environment.

4. Population • We are adding to the world population: • 2 1/3 people per second. • 141 people per minute. • 200,000 people per day. • 6.2 million people per month. • (http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop) • Thomas Malthus (1766 – 1834) an English economist predicted uncontrolled population growth, and hence future doom.

5. Population • Three stage demographic transition theory based on American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929: • Stage 1: High birth rates and high death rates – population stable. • Stage 2: High birth rates and low death rates – population surges. • Stage 3: Low birth rates and low death rates while economic quality of life improves – population stable.

6. Interpreting Current Population Data • World population hit the 6 billion mark in June 1999. • We are currently adding about 1 billion people to our population every 12 to 15 years. • Around 2050 we estimate it will slowdown to about 1 billion every 20 years. • Fertility rates range from about 1.2 in Europe to about 8.0 in Niger. • Replacement rate is 2.1 and represents the point at which a couple has only the number of births to replace themselves.

7. Interpreting Current Population Data • The population in the labor force (15 - 64) which comprised 64 percent of the world in 2002 continues to grow, but in proportion to the total population stays approximately the same. • The world’s elderly (65 and older) population will grow more than 3 times by 2050 and will constitute 17 percent of the population.

8. AIDS • More than 20 million people have died of AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) since 1980. • Forty million people are living with HIV – the virus that causes AIDS – and most people are expected to die in the next 10 years. • The greatest impact of AIDS is felt in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. • Because of the high rates of AIDS infection, some countries will see their average life expectancy drop to 30 years.

9. Other Trends and Implications • Migration continues from rural areas of developing countries to fast growing cities. • By 2007 fifty percent of the world’ s population will be urban. • Currently 5 cities – Tokyo, Mexico City, New York, San Paulo, and Mumbai - have more than 15 million people. • Tokyo has more than 35 million people and is the largest city.

10. Other Trends and Implications • By 2050 the population of the more developed countries would be declining by approximately 1 million persons per year. • The developing world would be adding 35 million people annually, 22 million of whom would be in the least developed countries. • The movement of international migrants to more developed regions will average 2.2 million annually.

11. Putting the Bite on Planet Earth • Each year about 90 million people join the human race. • That is roughly equal to adding three Canada’s or another Mexico to the world annually. • Human numbers will swell from today’s 6.5 billion to 8.5 billion by 2025.

12. Putting the Bite on Planet Earth • Forty million acres of tropical forest are destroyed each year. • 27,000 species become extinct each year. • 2 billion people lack adequate drinking water. • The world’s bottom billion poorest and top billion richest do most of the damage to the environment.

13. Putting the Bite on Planet Earth • The 10 nations with the worst habitat destruction house an average of 189 people per square kilometer (250 acres) while the 10 that retain the most original habitat have 29 people per square kilometer. • Seventy percent of water withdrawals from rivers and other sources go to crop irrigation.

14. Putting the Bite on Planet Earth • Coastal fisheries are overexploited in much of Asia, Africa, and parts of Latin America. • Mangroves and coral reefs – critical nurseries for many marine species – are being destroyed in the name of development. • Human activities are responsible for 35 million metric tons of nitrogen and 3.75 million metric tons of phosphorous flowing into coastal waters – causing massive algae blooms and depleted oxygen levels – harming marine life near the shores.

15. Putting the Bite on Planet Earth • About 2/3 of the world’s population – 3.6 billion people live along 150 kilometers (100 miles ) of the coast. • In the United States 54% live along the coastal areas or the Great Lakes. • Already some 2 billion people in 80 countries live with water constrains for all or part of the year.

16. Putting the Bite on Planet Earth • Fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal account for 90 percent of global energy consumption. • Nuclear, hydro electric, and other sustainable resources provide the rest. • Known oil reserves should last another 41 years, gas for 60 years, and coal for 200 years.

17. Putting the Bite on Planet Earth • Cost effective measures to realize energy savings are: • 1. Using compact fluorescents in homes and offices. • 2. Requiring better home insulation. • 3. Requiring 80 kilometers per gallon (50 mpg) vehicles.

18. Can the Growing Human Population Feed Itself? • The world’s population will reach 10 billion by 2050. • Evidence leads many experts to believe that there are no significant obstacles to feeding a world population of 10 billion people. • It depends on increased domestic and international trade, and large investment in agriculture and infrastructure development. • The task will be made more difficult if population growth rates cannot be reduced.

19. International Conference on Population and Development • The September 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo, Egypt recommended an ambitious plan to stabilize the world population between 7.9 to 9.8 billion by 2050. • The plan calls for family planning services to 120 million women in the world who wanted it, but lacked access to family planning activities. • It also addressed one major underlying cause which is female illiteracy, and advocated universal primary school education for girls. • Ninety five percent of the growth in population will occur in the developing world.

20. International Conference on Population and Development • Studies show that with better education and an increase of women’s stature in the family and community birth rates decline. • The UN Millennium Developmental Goals (MDG) for 2015 include ending extreme poverty and hunger, promoting gender equality and universal primary education, reducing maternal and child mortality, combating HIV/AIDS and preserving the environment. • Some 2.8 billion people – two in five – still struggle to survive on less than $2 a day. • Poverty perpetuates and is exacerbated by poor health, gender inequality, and rapid population growth.

21. International Conference on Population and Development • Farmers, ranchers, loggers, and developers have cleared about half the world’s original forests. • Three quarters of the world’s fish stock are now fished beyond sustainable limits. • Half a billion people live in countries defined as water stressed or water scarce. • Fast growing poor populations exploit their local environment to meet subsistence needs for food and fuel.

22. International Conference on Population and Development • AIDS has claimed 20 million lives and infected 38 million people. • In some areas of Africa 25% of the workforce is HIV positive. • Young people aged 15 - 24 account for half of all new HIV infections.

23. World Birth Control Discussion Issues • Unrestrained population growth is the principal cause of poverty, malnutrition, environmental disruption, and other social problems. • In developed countries, the number of births per woman is now below replacement level, including the United States. • Some developing countries, such as China and Cuba, are already below the replacement level of 2.1 children. • Countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Turkey, Egypt, and India should reach this level within the next ten years.

24. World Birth Control Discussion Issues • Table 2 (page 396): A Day in the life of the World • (Source: R.V.Short,Contraceptive Strategies, North American Press, p. 327) • 100,000 acts of intercourse will take place • 910,000 conceptions will occur • 150,000 abortions will be performed • 500 mothers will die as a result of abortion • 384,000 babies will be born • 1,370 mothers will die of pregnancy related causes • 25,000 infants will die in the first year of life • 14,000 children age 1 – 4 will die • 365,000 adults will get sexually transmitted disease • 203,000 net increase in population of the world

25. World Birth Control Discussion Issues • Executive Summary of the World Fertility Report 2003: • A major worldwide shift in the timing of marriage to older ages has occurred • Divorce rate has increased in most countries with data available • A tremendous increase has taken place in the use of family planning • Average children has dropped from 5.9 per woman in the 1970’s to 3.0 in the 1990’s.

26. The Hazards of Youth • In many developing countries labor markets have been unable to keep pace with population growth, contributing to high rates of unemployment. • Unemployment in developing countries among young adults is usually three to five times as high as overall adult rates. • With few opportunities in rural areas, young people are migrating to cities in search of work. • The United Nations projects that by 2007, there will be more people living in cities than in rural areas, and could top 60% by 2030.

27. Earth’s Carrying Capacity • The current population is increasing by 90 million people annually. • Population carrying capacity can be defined as the number of people that the planet can support without irreversibly reducing its capacity to support its people in the future. • Human communities must learn to live off the “interest” of environmental resources rather than off their “principal”. • In many parts of the world, three principal and essential stocks of renewable resources – forests, grasslands, and fisheries – are being utilized faster than their rate of natural replenishment.

28. Case Study 1: China’s One Child Policy • The Chinese population control policy of one child per family is 25 years old. • It has avoided some 300 million births (roughly the population of the United States). • China hopes to stabilize its population at 1.6 billion by 2050. • Many experts agree that it is the maximum number that China’s resources and carrying capacity can support.

29. Case Study 1: China’s One Child Policy • Preferential treatment in public services (health, education, and housing) was given to one child families. • Parents abiding by the one child policy got monthly bonuses until the child reached the age of 14. • Criticism of the one child policy is that one grandchild may have to support two parents and four grandparents.

30. Case Study 1: China’s One Child Policy • Couples abort female fetuses in hopes that the next pregnancy produces a son (since sons traditionally support parents in old age). • China may have as many as 20 million single men by 2020. • Divorced Chinese who remarry are allowed to have a second child.

31. Case Study 2: Japan’s Unpopular Pill • In 1999, Japan’s Ministry of Health approved the oral contraceptive, which was earlier banned. • According to the UN only about 1.3% are using the pill in Japan compared to 15.6 % in the United States. • Condoms account for 80% of the birth control market.

32. Case Study 2: Japan’s Unpopular Pill • The government is actually trying to persuade couples to have more babies since the country’s fertility rate is 1.3% and the population is shrinking. • Many believe that Japan’s abortion rate at 400,000 per year would be greatly reduced if pill use became widespread.

33. Conclusion • The population was 2.5 billion people in 1950. • The population is increasing at an alarming rate (6.5 billion people in 2006). • The implications are enormous, and need planning, to feed this growing population. • Progress is being made in many countries, by increasing education, and reducing the birth rate to sustainable levels.

34. Home Work • 1. What is the United Nations projection for a sustainable population and projected population by 2050? • 2. What is the Malthusian theory on population growth? • 3. What is the Thompson theory on population growth? • 4. What is the replacement rate of human population? • 5. In which countries is the greatest impact of AIDS felt? • 6. How much of our water usage goes to crop irrigation? • 7. Why are Mangroves and coral reefs important? • 8. What is one major underlying cause of population growth? • 9. What is the principal cause of poverty, malnutrition, environmental disruption, and other social problems? • 10. Define population carrying capacity of the earth.