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Disruptive Technology Outlook for 2011

Presentation on February 17, 2011 that provides a framework for companies to evaluate and prioritize disruptive technologies.

charleneli
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Disruptive Technology Outlook for 2011

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  1. 1 Hot Or Not: Disruptive Technologies To Watch in 2011 February 17, 2011 Charlene Li Founder and Partner

  2. 2 Source: Wordle.net © 2011 Altimeter Group

  3. 3 Prioritizing disruptions that matter User Experience •Is it easy for people to use? •Does it enable people to connect in new ways? Business Model •Does it tap new revenue streams? •Is it done at a lower cost? Ecosystem Value •Does it change the flow of value? •Does it shift power from one player to another? © 2011 Altimeter Group

  4. 4 1) Likenomics (credit to RohitBhargava) “How personal relationships, individual opinions, powerful storytelling and social capital are helping brands…become more believable.” Understand the supply, demand, and thus, value of Likes as social currency See http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics for Rohit’s take © 2011 Altimeter Group

  5. 5 Likenomics evaluation  User experience impact - moderate • People with high social currency will enjoy benefits, richer experiences, receive psychic income. • People with low social currency will find ways to get it.  Business model impact – moderate • New economics create opportunity for people who understand Likenomics to leverage gas. • The cost of accessing social currency will increase, and raise barriers to entry.  Ecosystem value impact – none © 2011 Altimeter Group

  6. 6 2) Buy 2.0  Special deals for special people • Group Buying, Flash Sales, Member Sales, etc. • Gilt, Ruelala, iDeeli, Facebook Deals  Local sales and retailers • Group buying variation: Groupon and Living Social • In-store check-ins: Shopkick and Checkpoints  Dynamic pricing • Off and Away and Swoopo  Mobile price checking • Amazon mobile apps, eBay platform  New payment methods: Square and Facebook Credits © 2011 Altimeter Group

  7. 7 How shopping will change Store knows it’s me I walk into the store And maps out planned and promoted products © 2011 Altimeter Group

  8. 8 Buy 2.0 evaluation  User experience impact - High • New ways to buy and connect with each other and retailers.  Business model impact – Moderate • Acquisition costs can increase/decrease substantially with adoption. • Increased noise/clutter requires more marketing.  Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • New entrants like GroupOn become intermediaries. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  9. 9 3) Social Search – Beyond Friends Social sharing rises as a search ranking signal, esp in the enterprise Create a social content hub to gain traction Use microformats to highlight granularity (e.g. hProduct&hReview) © 2011 Altimeter Group

  10. 10 Social Search evaluation  User experience impact - Moderate • Search becomes more useful, relevant to people.  Business model impact – Moderate • SEO takes on a different dimension, rewards companies with social currency, personalized experiences.  Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • New power brokers are social data/profile players who capture activity data and profiles. • Google has little of either. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  11. 11 4) Big Data  Social monitoring merges with Web analytics • HOT: Omniture, Coremetrics/IBM, Webtrends  Technology like Hadoop makes it easy for companies to tap “Big Data” • E.g. New York Times making its archives public • Twitter archived by Library of Congress • Facebook Cassandra, Amazon Dynamo, Google BigTable  Data visualization tools make it easy to digest  Balancing privacy and personalization © 2011 Altimeter Group

  12. 12 Big Data evaluation  User experience impact - Low • Most users won’t directly experience Big Data.  Business model impact – High • New businesses and initiatives can be started at very low cost.  Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • Owners of Big Data repositories can assert control, demand payments for access. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  13. 13 5) Enterprise Social Networking © 2011 Altimeter Group

  14. 14 Enterprise Social Networking evaluation  User experience impact – High • Work gets social, employees get connected to each other.  Business model impact – Moderate • Work gets done faster, cheaper. • New organizational structures and cultures emerge.  Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • Traditional enterprise application players face new, more nimble entrants. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  15. 15 6) Game-ification © 2011 Altimeter Group

  16. 16 TurboTaxused “games” to encourage sharing and support Social design can enter training, collaboration, support, hiring © 2011 Altimeter Group

  17. 17 Gamification evaluation  User experience impact – High • Experiences get richer, more engaging  Business model impact – Moderate • Work gets done faster, cheaper. • New organizational structures and cultures emerge.  Ecosystem value impact – Low • Service providers will remain focused, boutique firms. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  18. 18 7) Print extensions QR Codes Imagine images as Bit.ly codes © 2011 Altimeter Group

  19. 19 Print extensions evaluation  User experience impact – Moderate • Users get new ways to get information quickly. • No need to download special software, understand quirky images.  Business model impact – Moderate • Leverage print investment to extend further into buying process. • Impacts importance of SEO.  Ecosystem value impact – Low • Standards, not new service providers, play a role. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  20. 20 Print extensions evaluation  User experience impact – Moderate • Users get new power, earn social status, when they become curators.  Business model impact – Moderate • Lower cost of acquisition.  Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • Standards, not new service providers, play a role. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  21. 21 8)DIY and Co-creation © 2011 Altimeter Group

  22. 22 DIY an Co-creation evaluation  User experience impact – Moderate • Users become more loyal/engaged with organizations that invite them in. • Develop a sense of shared ownership in the success of the organization.  Business model impact – High • Reduced merchandising costs. • Reduced marketing costs due to viral loop.  Ecosystem value impact – Low • Mostly home-grown, internal development. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  23. 23 9) Curation © 2011 Altimeter Group

  24. 24 Curation evaluation  User experience impact – Moderate • Users gain new power as market influencers.  Business model impact – Low • Low unless tapped as part of Co-creation initiative.  Ecosystem value impact – Moderate • Power shifts to users who steal attention and loyalty from established players. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  25. 25 Not Hot Yet in 2011: Augmented Reality When scanning tech improves, will get hot © 2011 Altimeter Group

  26. 26 Augmented Reality evaluation  User experience impact – Moderate • Still hard to use, limited availability. • But when available, creates unique, new experience.  Business model impact – Low • Unclear if new experiences lower costs, raise revenues.  Ecosystem value impact – Low • Few intermediaries emerge in new experiences. • Usually home-grown. © 2011 Altimeter Group

  27. 27 To Watch: Quora – Quality Q&A? Monitor your brand Engage by being helpful © 2011 Altimeter Group

  28. 28 Summary of disruptions User Experience Moderate High Moderate Low High High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Business Model Moderate Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate High Low Low Value Networks Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Low Likenomics Buy 2.0 Social Search Big Data Enterprise Soc Net Gamification Print extensions DIY/Co-creation Curation Augmented reality © 2011 Altimeter Group

  29. Bonus #1: Transparency © 2011 Altimeter Group

  30. 30 Bonus #2: Leadership How to be out of control and still in command © 2011 Altimeter Group

  31. 31 Preparing for disruption It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change. - Charles Darwin © 2011 Altimeter Group

  32. © 2011 Altimeter Group © 2010 Altimeter Group

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