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Crop Outlook for 2011

Crop Outlook for 2011. 2010 Ag Outlook and Management Seminars Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Source: USDA-NASS. Source: USDA-NASS. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range.

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Crop Outlook for 2011

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  1. Crop Outlook for 2011 2010 Ag Outlook and Management Seminars Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Source: USDA-NASS

  4. Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range Translates to a yield around 160 bu. Source: USDA-NASS

  6. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  7. Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Within a bushel of each other Source: USDA-NASS

  10. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  11. Corn – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  12. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  13. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  14. La Niña Winter Source: NOAA

  15. Clearing Old Stocks The current stocks set-up is reminiscent of the transition between the 2006 and 2007 crops. Source: USDA

  16. Livestock Situation Poultry production 46% of total red meat and poultry Year-to-date 2010 Broilers +3.6%, Turkey -4.4% 7-weeks: Chick placement +3.4% / Egg set +5.4% Forecast for 2011 & 2012 (yr/yr % change) Production Consumption Broilers +2.5 & +3.1 +1.5 & +2.0 Turkeys +3.0 & +4.5 -1.3 & +6.1 Source: John Lawrence, ISU Extension

  17. Pork Summary Breeding herd liquidation slowed, but production efficiency offset some decline Higher grain prices will postpone expansion Export demand expected to be stronger in 2011 and beyond Industry downsizing will idle some facilities Manage margins Source: John Lawrence, ISU Extension

  18. Cattle Summary Demand recovers slowly with the economy Tight supplies should support prices Herd liquidation continues into 2012+ Higher cost for cowherds Higher cost of gain pressure calf prices Narrow feeding margins Manage risk through transition Source: John Lawrence, ISU Extension

  19. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  20. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  21. Historical Export Levels Week 11 of marketing year Source: USDA, FAS

  22. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2010 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  23. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  24. 2010 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  25. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  26. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  27. 2010 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  28. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  29. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  30. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  31. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  32. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  33. Fuel Prices

  34. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

  35. Gasoline Consumption Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  36. RFS Coverage

  37. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  38. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  39. Corn

  40. Soybeans

  41. Corn Futures Trade Source: CFTC

  42. Soybean Futures Trade Source: CFTC

  43. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  44. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  45. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Even with the recent knock, futures have prices in the $5 range Even with higher fertilizer costs, corn’s profitable

  46. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Futures have season-average prices above $11 for ’10 and ‘11

  47. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  48. States with Room to Grow

  49. New Crop Futures Price Movements

  50. This Year Soy $11.43 Corn $4.87

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