Central Asia on the New Silk Road: infrastructure, geography and society

1. Central Asia on the New Silk Road:infrastructure, geography and society View from London Troy Sternberg School of Geography University of Oxford

2. Host nation context • Geography • Society – people, livelihoods, communities institutions, governance • Infrastructure and geopolitics • Outcomes – CPEC in Pakistan

3. Context‘New Silk Road’ • $1 trillion infrastructure supernova • Many motivations, different perspectives Strong message, poor explanation

5. Climate, Hazards Infrastructure Threatened by Climate Change Poses a National Crisis US Government Aridity

6. Climate, Hazards Infrastructure Threatened by Climate Change Poses a National Crisis US Government

7. Climate, Hazards Infrastructure Threatened by Climate Change Poses a National Crisis US Government Climate productivity

8. Climate, Hazards Infrastructure Threatened by Climate Change Poses a National Crisis US Government Climate 2011-2040

9. Earthquakes, landslides, etc. 1911 Almaty 2016 - 6.5 scale Tajik/Kyrgyz/China border

10. Earthquakes, landslides, etc. Earthquake risk – brown = highest global risk

11. Water, floods, irrigation

12. Water, floods, irrigation

13. Livelihoods

14. Community • What is being built? • What do citizens want? Railways, water, education, health care, sanitation, electricity….

15. Community • Rural vs urban - enhance or damage local development • Farming, livestock, service - low industrialisation • Culture, heritage, religion, custom

16. Community Jobs

17. Governance • Government form and structure • Capacity to deliver service • Strong or weak state apparatus • Does OBOR help or hinder governance?

18. Institutions • State and civic society • Post-Soviet, state security • Economic development • Social benefits – education, health • Challenges example – Customs 28 days • Direct infrastructure for what benefit?

19. Infrastructure Special Economic Zone Zhongda refinery

20. Infrastructure Economic vs social vs cultural value Who benefits? Who decides? State building Standards? Who builds, maintains, monitors? Who pays, when, how? Industrial (China) vs developing, rural Central Asia

21. Past and future projects

22. Border crossing Tajik Kyrgyz Kazakh

23. Geopolitics, EconomicsGamers vs Traders Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Great game – Russia and China Where is US, India, EU, Japan?

24. Russia • Political, military, economic, culture * language* - media citizens, migrants • Eurasian Economic Union – EEU binding obligations ‘sphere of influence’ • Historical legacy Baikonur Launchpad

25. Chinese vision Excess industrial capacity Needs resources $50 billion in Central Asian trade Social capacity – tourism, investment Economic future Is infrastructure needed? Do Chinese and Central Asian interests align?

26. OBOR also means… • Hambantota, Sri Lanka • world’s emptiest airport, debt 90% budget • more elephants than people • CPEC Pakistan • 30,000 soldiers guarding Chinese infrastructure • Insurgents kill Chinese workers • Zhongda Refinery • Kyrgyzstan

27. Outcomes: +/- + • 0.1-0.7 increase GDP • Efficient – fast build • New infrastructure • May integrate states/ neutralise differences (Afghanistan) • bridge between the world’s largest markets - • Land, food grab • Narco-trafficking • 50% build is ‘unproductive assets’ • Customs – 28 day • Environment • Corruption • 30% Central Asia, 80% Pak. • National debt

28. China conundrum • Soft power vs hard power • Presentation, ‘hearts and minds’ • One way or two way flow of goods, resources, people • Short term vs long term • Infrastructure amongst equals or vassals • Sinophobia – ‘why don’t locals like us’ • Pakistan violence – integration or disintegration? World Economic Forum, 2015

29. Challenges • Country and community buy-in • Relevant and altruistic vs pass-through and exploitive • Perceived environmental degradation • Cultural insensitivity • Corporate Social Responsibility • Standards • Discussion and complaint mechanism Xi – ‘win-win’

30. GovernanceCode of Conduct

31. OBOR Quotes • Xi:“a great undertaking that will benefit peoples around the world” • "It’s an ambitious project, the UK is the world’s financial centre, so London should play an important role," UK government • Central Asia was a “rich piece of cake given to today’s Chinese people by heaven” ‘Central Asia should thus be regarded “as territory to be recovered in our advance, not as a border region” PLA General Liu Yazhou • Xi: "What we hope to create is a big family of harmonious co-existence,” • ‘The "One Belt, One Road" initiative can be seen as a reversal of the course of history with a Chinese power that is not only interested in its own development, but which asks what it can do for the rest of the world.’J. Di Meglio, Asia Center, Paris • Discourse Analysis – improves with distance

32. New Silk Road ‘All roads lead to China’… …or new roads to bring the world together?

34. Water