Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

1. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Click to add subtitle Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

2. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Problem Statement • Problem: There is often a perceived conflict between freedom of economic activity and the need for increased security. Nowhere is this more apparent than in urban areas such as Lower Manhattan • Conflicting goals: • Enhance economic activity • Prevent terrorist attacks • But, are they always conflicting?

3. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Problem Statement • Related problem arises in much more general settings involving security. • Example: • Crime outside Manhattan hotel • Police close off several-square- block area around hotel • Severe impact on business at nearby shops and restaurants

4. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Problem Statement • Related problem arises in much more general settings involving security. • Example: • Gas smell in a downtown building • Fire department orders evacuation of building and reroutes traffic in the neighborhood • Work at 100s of offices in the building and commerce in the area are severely affected

5. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Problem Statement • Related problem arises in much more general settings involving security. • Example: • High-rise apartment building installs turnstyle-type access control; residents required to carry access cards even when leaving for short time • Some tenants find this annoying • Others feel safer and may even be willing to pay more rent thanks to this

6. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Problem Statement • U-CASS aims to: • Assess economic impact of security initiatives • Develop general approach to understanding interplay between security and commerce • Develop approach with wide applicability to urban areas nationwide • Identify ways to minimize economic impact of security initiatives • Identify situations where increased security enhances economic activity

7. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Ultimate Project Goal: Develop a decision support toolthat planners and decision makers can use to make choices about security initiatives/countermeasures • Tool based on risk and economic analysis • Usable to compare security measures or packages (“portfolios”) of security measures as to risk and economic consequences • Applicable to a variety of urban areas

8. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Research Challenges • Challenge 1: Not much relevant methodology • Considerably less work on economic impacts of security policies and practices • Security Economics: Activities that affect, prevent, or mitigate insecurity in the economy; use of tools to analyze dynamics of security

9. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Research Challenges • Challenge 2: Metrics • How measure things like inconvenience, willingness to accept delays, etc.?

10. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Research Challenges • Challenge 2: Metrics • Many tools of economic modeling depend on “interval” or “ratio scales” whereas we may only be able to expect “ordinal scale” responses: • Is this effect large, medium, or small? • Is this green, blue, yellow, orange, or red? • If we only have ordinal scales, can we use them in our economic modeling?

11. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Research Challenges • Challenge 3: Infrequent Events • There is a considerable literature on economics and security when events have a reasonable frequency of occurring • Then, recurrence of events allows for testing models and tools. • Example: shoplifting

12. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Research Challenges • Challenge 4: Data Uncertainty • Example: Put metal detector in store entrance • How does this change probability a person will enter the store? • Less likely because of long lines? • More likely because it seems store is safer? • Level of accuracy of these probabilities affects conclusions about resulting economic activity.

13. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Research Challenges • Challenge 5: Indirect Impacts: • Case in point: Economic impacts of closing off Pennsylvania Ave. in front of the White House (Hoffman, Chalk, Liston, Brennan, 2000)

14. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Research Challenges • Challenge 6: Dependence on input from Individuals and Businesses • Input often relatively subjective • Hard to quantify • Inconsistent responses • Subject to bias • Requires careful formulation of questions or you get the wrong information

15. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) Research Challenges • Challenge 7: Measuring the Benefits of Security • Most of the literature on economics and security has focused on costsof security. • Virtually no work on benefitsof security investments from economic point of view. • Difficulty of making benefits precise. • Differing time periods over which to assess benefits • Complexity of analyzing indirect benefits from security initiatives • Major challenge to U-CASS project: Develop methodologies for assessing economic benefits of new security initiatives

16. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Information Gathering Stage: • Developed sets of alternative security initiatives/countermeasures: • Video surveillance (cameras) • Random vehicle inspections • Permanent street closures to traffic • Temporary perimeters & access control • Random bag inspection • Increased visible presence of police • X-rays & magnetometers in building lobbies

17. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Information Gathering Stage: • Developed sample scenarios: • Teams of shooters • Subway chemical agent • Subway bomb • Bus bomb • Street bomber Mumbai attacks Credit: Indiaexpress.com Credit: Commons.Wikipedia.org

18. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Using Our Tool: • First choose a scenario to consider • Our tool is designed to recommend countermeasures that might be put in place, based on the scenario • Choose a countermeasure or set of countermeasures • Measure cost/benefit of the countermeasures chosen by considering • Capital and operating costs of the countermeasures • Economic costs and benefits of the implementation • Reduction in risk of the scenario being realized and resulting reduction in expected costs of an attack.

19. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Summary of the PIE Approach: • Selection of a scenario • Selection of countermeasure or “portfolio” of countermeasures • Discrete event simulation to understand local economic impacts of portfolio of countermeasures • Risk analysis to determine reduction in risk of the scenario given the countermeasures • Computable general equilibrium modeling to understand regional/global economic impact stemming from local impact

21. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Understanding economic activity in a region: • “Normal activity” • Activity after a countermeasure • Developed a simulation tool: • Discrete event simulation • One version: based on ARENA simulation software • Another version based on OMNet++ simulation software

22. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Developed a simulation tool: • CCICADA has extensive experience with ARENA • But ARENA is not open-source; not usable over the web • OMNET++ can be used to create a web-enabled decision support tool.

23. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Developed a simulation tool: • ARENA and OMNet++ • Input: scenario and a security initiative • Input: information about probabilities of different movements/behaviors • If a pedestrian passes a restaurant, what is probability she will go inside? • If a car finds a street blocked, what is probability it will make a right turn and seek a parallel street?

24. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Developed a simulation tool: • ARENA and OMNet++: • Output: Changes in level of economic activity • After an hour • After a day • After a year

25. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Developed a simulation tool: • How did we get information about the inputs? • Extensive survey using Mechanical Turk + interviews + USBLS + USDOT • Four kinds of individuals considered in survey + simulation: • Residents • Those who work in the region • Shopowners • Those who come to the region for recreation or shopping

26. U-CASS Research Methodology Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) • Modeling and Simulation • Required extensive data gathering to populate the model: students walking the streets; survey • A snapshot from our WTC- area simulation: 26

27. Simulation Model – User Interface For any side of a street, you can close it, place a bag check point on it, or place security cameras. Subway bag checks can be employed either manually or periodically by inputting frequency and duration. For a faster animation, a smaller region may be looked at instead. Settings related to quality and display of output. 27

28. Simulation Model - Animation • All pedestrian life is simulated. • Workers, tourists/ shoppers and • residents are the pedestrian categories. • Main focus is on commercial life. • Online and offline outputs can be obtained regarding economic and pedestrian activity on a street. 28

29. Simulation Model – Offline Output Offline output available after simulation showing average number of people on the street, and average hourly transaction. 29

30. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Economic Analysis • Estimate direct cost of a countermeasure: capital costs + operating & maintenance costs • Combine the direct costs with the local economic costs computed from the simulation model. • Then use a computable general equilibrium analysis to estimate the ripple effect on the entire economy

31. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology • Economic Analysis • CGE is a complex, nonlinear model of the regional economy • Sometimes we add the “non-monetary” or “spillover” costs such as: • Discomfort people feel • Congestion • Delays • Environmental changes • Note: “discomfort” could be negative: People feeling safer (so a “positive” impact of security • These spillover costs can be “monetized” and fed into the CGE.

32. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) U-CASS Research Methodology Illustrating the Simulation • We worked on an area of Lower Manhattan around the World Trade Center site.

33. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

34. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

35. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

36. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

37. Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

38. U-CASS Summary Develop a decision support toolthat planners and decision makers can use to make choices about security initiatives/countermeasures Achieve a balance between increased security and maintaining or improving economic vitality Ultimately using this tool to sustain our urban environments and the quality of life for those within it. THANK YOU Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS) 38