IAOS Conference on Reshaping Official Statistics Shanghai, 14-16 October 2008

1. IAOS Conference on Reshaping Official Statistics Shanghai, 14-16 October 2008 Use of Administrative Data In the Past, Present and Future By Svein Nordbotten Svein Nordbotten

2. Concepts Statistical data: Data on individuals/objects of populations collected for the sole purpose of producing statistics. Administrative data: Data on individuals/objects of populations collected for a non-statistical primary purpose adopted by a National Statistical Institute (NSI) for producing official statistics. Svein Nordbotten

3. History of administrative recording Country B Country A Year -2k -1k 0 1k 2k Svein Nordbotten

4. Two important events in the 1950s • Electronic, programmed computers made processing of large data sets • more effective for administrative and statistical purposes. • Electronic recording made establishing, maintaining and sharing • comprehensivepopulation/object registers possible. Svein Nordbotten

5. The information technology The UNIVAC 1 computer entered the official statistical scene in the US Census Bureau in the early 1950’s, and when the processing of the 1960 censuses were due, a number of NSIs were prepared with their own computers. When the information technology later merged with communication technology, it changed the time and space dimensions for statistical processing. The new technical potensial inspired to think about all activities of a NSI as interrelated parts of a production system in contrast to the traditional separate statistical processes, and the term statistical production became common. Svein Nordbotten

6. Administrative registers Local object identifiers had been used for a long time in many admistrative processes. These specialized systems were expensive to maintain , represented a vast duplication of efforts and were of limited usability as statistical data sources. The efficiency of shared, public object identifiers were obvious. In the 1950s the first steps to establish general, permanent, unique object identifier registers for the economic units as well as for the population were taken in the Nordic countries with active participation by statisticians. Svein Nordbotten

7. Statistical visions in the 1950s Unique and permanent identifiers permitted compilation of the ’life lines’ of statistical objects including interobject events by data linkage. Models for statistical micro systems named statistical archive systems, file systems, register-based systems, etc. were discussed in international fora from about 1960. The next slides illustrate the popular version of ideas discussed. Ten years later the generic version became known as data base management systems. Svein Nordbotten

8. Archive data storage container Attributes Census attributes Human population Objects Census day Time Svein Nordbotten

9. Archive index system Attributes Time plane Object plane Attribute plane Objects Time Svein Nordbotten

10. Early applications of organized data Early applications of permanent person identifiers were linking of statistical census data and administrative demographic data demonstrating the possibility to continuous updating census data , and linking of tax data and census data for exploring income variations. Svein Nordbotten

11. Change in processing conditions the last 50 years 106 (x 1.000.000) 108 (x 100.000.000) 105 (x 100.000) Processing power: User net size: Communication speed: Svein Nordbotten

12. Sample of present applications Censuses (population, location registers) Demographics (demographic registration) Foreign trade (custom data) Income (taxation data) Social statistics (registration of services) Employment (unemployment registration) Education (registration of students) Health (medical registrations) Crime ( Police, court, prison registrations) Business (Business registers) Svein Nordbotten

13. Methodological challenges The present intensive utilization of administrative data in official statistics has also required work on methods in several fields: Electronic processes for collecting administrative data Quality control of data received from external administrative sources Integrating data from different statistical and administrative sources Evaluating quality of integrated data sets Editing data using associated administrative background data Estimating population parameters using administrative background data Confidentiality and security in systems based on administrative data Statistics on demand from systems based on administrative data Evaluation of costs and benefits from using administrative data Svein Nordbotten

14. Reactions A US National Data Center was proposed in the mid 1960s and initiated extensive privacy debates emphazising the need for considering the threats against the individual ’s right to privacy created by assigning all data with personal identifiers and storing the data. In many countries, this debate resulted in new privacy laws regulating the collection, storing, processing, distribution and use of personal data. As a consequence, some NSIs can at present take advantage of administrative data while others must rely on their own statistical data. Svein Nordbotten

15. The future • Examples of electronic recordings which can • provide data for official statistics: • Use of: • Creditt cardtransactions • Commodity (RFID)tracking • Toll road recording • Electronic tickets for travelling • Public services offered electronically • Immigration control. • Surveillance of traffic and communication • Mobile phone use • Internet use • GPS tracking of traffic and transport Svein Nordbotten

16. Data recording trends • Data recording will be based on: • Smaller chips which can be implanted in objects incl. humans. (VeriChip) • Programmable for a wide range of tasks • Wireless and supplied remotely with energy. (RFID) • Controlled remotely through network access points incl. satellites. • Interactive sending and receiving data. Svein Nordbotten

17. Possible applications With these technological devices in mind, the following applications are possible: Monitoring states and movements of people with implanted chips, Tracking location of other identified objects by embedded chips. Statisticians no doubt can envisage the interest, value and possibility of data misuse from such recordings, particularly when linked to other available data. Svein Nordbotten

18. Shopping Center Bank (Reader) Accounting Customer ? (Id chip) (Shopper) NSI (RFIDs) Svein Nordbotten

19. Important questions • Presuming that these highly private data will be recorded, we should ask the questions: • Do these data concern official statistics production? • Is it possible to design laws functioning as abstract firewalls around the data? • Which new technology and methods are required for secure implementation? • Should the NSIs prepare for the responsibility of storing such data? • I am certain that these and many other aspects will be discussed during the next few days, and wish you all good luck with your future work. Svein Nordbotten

20. Thank you all for your attention! Svein Nordbotten