The Evolution of Intelligent Vehicles: A Glimpse into the Future

1. Intelligent Vehicles:A New World Coming….. Presentation to the Casualty Actuarial Society May 8-9, 2000 Richard Bishop Richard Bishop Consulting www.ivsource.net

2. IV’s: This Joint is Jumpin’…. • During/After Crash Technology Evolving • Telematics is exploding • “Information Layer” -- in-vehicle information • Driver Assistance systems entering market • “Control Layer” -- helps driver drive more safely, productively, efficiently • Automated Driving • “electronic chauffeur” • the ultimate in personalized travel

3. Crash-Related Technology • Occupant Sensing • Beyond child-seat vs. no-child-seat • Detection of head/body proximity for optimum airbag deployment • Non-invasive monitoring via • electrical fields • radar • pressure sensing in seat

4. Crash-Related Technology • Black Boxes • Extensive data available now on in-vehicle truck computers: hard braking time/intensity, speed, GPS location, rapid accelerations, even radar data • Truck industry discussing a formal black box spec • American Trucking Association taking a stand • Congress may get into the act • Similar data available in cars • Not a technical issue -- only societal/political • In-vehicle data accessible by subpoena

5. Crash-Related Technology • Automatic Collision Notification (ACN) • Crash sensors detect crash • Location of vehicle known thru Global Positioning Satellite system • Cellular signal goes to local public safety office (911) • Successful test operating in Buffalo since 1998 • company formed to commercialize • Heavy truck ACN being tested by Mack Trucks

6. Telematics • In-vehicle internet access, e-mail, navigation, passenger entertainment, digital radio, multimedia, concierge services • Home, office, and now the car: telematics is the “last frontier” of internet access • Industry is gearing up for plug-n-play operation • Microsoft “Windows CE for Automotive” • Auto industry defining standards • Major players in the game: US Wireless, Intel, AT&T, etc.

7. Telematics……. Distracted Drivers? • Safety community sees obvious potential for driver distraction • National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) • sponsoring joint research examining “driver workload” issues • sponsoring meetings and internet forum (www.nhtsa.dot.gov) • Issues under examination in Europe, Japan

8. Driver Assistance Systems: Collision Warning • Trucks first, then cars • Over 50,000 heavy trucks equipped with Eaton-Vorad radar-based system • covers forward zone and right blind spot • selling 10,000 per year • accident reductions of 50% or greater not unusual for some fleets (self-insured fleets see direct benefit) • Lane departure warning entered heavy truck market in 1999 • based on image processing • first on Mercedes trucks (Europe), followed by Freightliner (U.S.) • suitable for automotive aftermarket

9. Assistware’s Lane Departure Warning System

10. Driver Assistance Systems: Collision Avoidance • Collision Avoidance: intervening to control the vehicle to avoid a crash • rear-end collisions, road departure, lane changes, etc. • huge “trustworthiness” issues • creates a new dimension to liability issues • NHTSA - GM: $35M cost-shared project • Major work underway worldwide • Expect systems to enter market around 2004 • IF we can do it, imagine the benefits!

11. Driver Assistance Systems: Adaptive Cruise Control • ACC: Foot-free driving • forward-looking radar “sees” slower vehicles ahead • system automatically adjusts speed and maintains a selectable following distance • desired speed is resumed when the way ahead is clear • Now on the market for around $1500 • Trucks: US (2000) • Cars: Japan (1997), Europe (1999), US (2000?)

12. Driver Assistance Systems: Adaptive Cruise Control • ACC -- questions abound • Will drivers remain attentive? • Will driving be less stressful, improving driver performance? • Will dense traffic flow in a more orderly way? • System intentionally not marketed as a safety system • deceleration is smooth, not intended to avoid a crash • NHSTA study found that people liked the system and used it responsibly

13. Driver Assistance Systems:Impairment Monitoring • Is Mr./Ms. Driver Fit to Drive??? • Technology exists to monitor: • driving performance: • lane keeping (SPI), steering wheel movements • physiological factors: • ocular measures: blink rate, blink velocity, % eye closure…. you name it • head position monitoring

14. Driver Assistance Systems:Impairment Monitoring • Major government research is focused on trucking • fatigue monitors • Systems are in product development cycle for cars and trucks • On the market: • Trucks: Basic systems now, advanced systems 2 years away • Cars: higher reliability needed; about 5 years off

15. Headtrak:Proximity Array Sensing System

16. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems • “Co-Pilot” functions will continue to emerge • Stop-n-go ACC for congested traffic (~2003) • Lane keeping on freeways (~2004) • Merge assistance (~2006) • Low Speed Automation! • Automated throttle, brakes, steering in tedious stop-n-go traffic • being developed in Europe, Japan • availability as early as 2005 overseas, 2007 in U.S.

17. Automated Driving: it’s coming! • Hands-off, feet-off driving • Demonstrated in 1997 by National Automated Highway System Consortium • Basic system capability exists • machine intelligence & machine perception now being refined by researchers (California, France, Germany, Japan, Korea) • must transform into an affordable, trustworthy product • Bishop prediction: available in 2010 • Revolutionary changes in society<>travel

18. Insurance Implications • Enhanced Driver-Vehicle Interface (DVI) • Legal / liability issues • Opportunities for new products based on driver/vehicle monitoring

19. Insurance Implications:Enhanced DVI • Driver-vehicle interface evolving • voice-activated control, hands-free cellular phone, e-mail “read” to driver • OK, hands are on the wheel -- but where is the driver’s attention? • Eye-tracking technology tracks attention placement • Driver warnings tuned to attention placement • OK, attention is on the road -- but where is driver’s brain? Unsolved mystery….

20. Insurance Implications: Legal / Liability Issues • Shared control of vehicle operation increases risk to vehicle manufacturers -- tort liability • … but fewer crashes reduces the existing litigation load • And, consumers must understand what systems do and don’t do • cross-industry educational campaign?

21. Insurance Implications:New Product Opportunities? • What can be monitored that provides an indication of driver behavior? • Frequency of hard accelerations, hard braking, excess speed, excess lateral acceleration • Driving while fatigued • Driving with insufficient attention on the road • What should be monitored? • Insurance industry, regulators, and consumers will decide

22. Resources / Events • USDOT Intelligent Vehicle Initiative National Meeting (www.sae.org) • July 19-20, Washington, D.C. • Japan’s Demo 2000 (www.ahsra.or.jp) • December 5-8, Tsukuba City, Japan • ITS America (www.itsa.org) • www.IVsource.net -- Continued updates and reporting

23. Thank you.