1 / 21

Matthew Martin March 17, 2008

Matthew Martin March 17, 2008. NATIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT. Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate. 4Q 0.6%. Average Forecast* 4Q 2007 - 4Q 2008. *Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus forecast. TOTAL HOME SALES

charmaine-efrain
Download Presentation

Matthew Martin March 17, 2008

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Matthew MartinMarch 17, 2008 NATIONALECONOMIC CONDITIONS

  2. REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate 4Q 0.6% Average Forecast* 4Q 2007 - 4Q 2008 *Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus forecast

  3. TOTAL HOME SALES (New and Existing Homes) Millions of Homes Jan. 4.9 mil. Average Annual Home Sales: 1990 through 1999

  4. PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS Millions of Starts Starts Completions Average Annual Housing Starts: 1990 through 1999 Jan. 1.35 mil. 1.01 mil.

  5. INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKET INDEXES Stock Index Stock Index Germany: DAX 100 (Right Scale) Japan: TOPIX (Left Scale) Mar. 7 US: S&P 500 (Left Scale)

  6. CRUDE OIL PRICES Current Dollars / Barrel Mar. 7 Futures Price Spot Price

  7. NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons Jan. & Feb. Avg. Monthly Change Feb -63 Jan -22 Dec -41 Nov 60 Oct 140

  8. CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Percent Feb. 4.8%

  9. PERSONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURES Year over Year % Change Month over Month % Change Income Expenditures Nov -0.4 0.2 Dec 0.1 0.0 Jan -0.1 0.0 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Real Personal Income Jan. * December 2004 real disposable income figure excludes the Microsoft dividend. Also, Aug. and Sep. 2005 figures are adjusted for effects of Hurricane Katrina.

  10. REAL PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE Billions of 2000$, deflated using the price index for private fixed investment structures Jan. Twelve-Month Moving Average

  11. CORE CAPITAL GOODS SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS (Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft) Current $, Billions Jan. New Orders Shipments

  12. RISK PREMIUM, HIGH YIELD Percent, Merrill Lynch Corporate CCC and lower bond yield - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield Mar. 7 10 Year Average Risk Premium

  13. RISK PREMIUM Percent, Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield Mar. 7 10 Year Average Risk Premium

  14. BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE Current $, Billions Twelve-Month Moving Average Jan. $-58.2 bil.

  15. REAL CRUDE OIL PRICES Current $/Barrel Deflated by PCE Price Index Jan.

  16. CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES Year over Year % Change Jan. 4.3% All Items 2.5% Core CPI

  17. TIPS Inflation Compensation Percent 5-Year 5 Years Ahead Mar. 7 5-Year

  18. REAL FEDERAL FUNDS RATE Percent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index Jan.

  19. EXPECTED FEDERAL FUNDS RATE AS IMPLIED BY FINANCIAL FUTURES CONTRACTS Percent Current Target Rate Feb. 13, 2008 Mar. 7, 2008

More Related