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Assessing Forest Sustainability in the Presence of Bioenergy Policies

Assessing Forest Sustainability in the Presence of Bioenergy Policies. Yun Wu North Carolina State University Oak Ridge National Laboratory Presentation at Camp Resources, June 24 2010. Role of Forest. LCFS, RFS, Carbon Tax Carbon Sequestration Cellulosic bioenergy

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Assessing Forest Sustainability in the Presence of Bioenergy Policies

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  1. Assessing Forest Sustainability in the Presence of Bioenergy Policies Yun Wu North Carolina State University Oak Ridge National Laboratory Presentation at Camp Resources, June 24 2010

  2. Role of Forest • LCFS, RFS, Carbon Tax • Carbon Sequestration • Cellulosic bioenergy • Land Use Change (CGE+PE) Carbon Emission = ∆ acres X ∆ carbon stock Carbon SequestrationInventory matters! LUC Modeling/SustainabilityAgeClass, Mgmt…

  3. Research Question As a result of biofuel mandates/carbon tax • Forest Inventory/harvest change • Forest sustainability (AgeClass, Mgmt type, species…)

  4. Sub-Regional Timber Supply Model(SRTS) • Dynamic • Predicts future timber inventory, removals and prices by species, ownership, age class and management type for 51 sub-regions in the 12 southern states • FIA inventory data • Driver option: demand for forest resources, forest product price, and forest harvest

  5. SRTS Framework SRTS Market Module Product 1 SRTS Market Module Product n . . . . . . . . . . . . Goal Program Harvest by Type/Age Class Inventory 1 by Unit/Owner Harvest 1 by Unit/Owner Inventory n by Unit/Owner Harvest n by Unit/Owner SRTS Inventory Module

  6. No agriculture sector (competition between Ag & For) • Exogenous Ag price and demand for forest Solution: • Scenario assumptions • FASOM results (Beach@RTI) • CGE results (Oladosu@ORNL)

  7. Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model(FASOM) • Dynamic • Maximize a measure of economic welfare in the two sectors (NPV sum(CS+PS)) • Endogenous land use and forest management investment decisions • No Forest Inventory

  8. Dynamic CGE From Static to Dynamic • Induce simultaneity -- code, PE to CGE • Recursive CGE -- Projections of population, investment and capital

  9. Bioenergy Policy Static CGE Population Capital Investment Recursive Dynamic CGE Ag Price Schedule Demand for forest resources SRTS Land use change Forest inventory Carbon stock

  10. Data • IMPLAN national data • USDA Forest Service Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) • US. Bureau of Statistics • Energy Information Administration

  11. Reference • Abt et al. 2000 • Adams et al. 1996 • Gbadebo et al. 2002 • Hardie et al. 2000 • McCarl et al. 1996

  12. Questions?wuy2@ornl.gov

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