1 / 21

TEPS/LAMEPS at met.no

TEPS/LAMEPS at met.no. Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner, Hilde Haakenstad and Ole Vignes. TEPS/LAMEPS. An ensemble prediction system using IFS and HIRLAM Running daily since mid Feb. 2005 (quasi operational) Focus: Precipitation (large precipitation events of special interest)

chavi
Download Presentation

TEPS/LAMEPS at met.no

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. TEPS/LAMEPS at met.no Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner, Hilde Haakenstad and Ole Vignes

  2. TEPS/LAMEPS • An ensemble prediction system using IFS and HIRLAM • Running daily since mid Feb. 2005 (quasi operational) • Focus: Precipitation (large precipitation events of special interest) • TEPS/LAMEPS is a supplement to EPS from ECMWF: • LAMEPS has better resolution • TEPS/LAMEPS is designed for our area of interest • Is valid for day 1 – 3

  3. TEPS/LAMEPS – set-up TEPS/LAMEPS: • TEPS (global model) (~80 km/40 lev.): as EPS, except: • TEPS is targeted to our area of interest • 20 + 1 members (EPS 50 + 1) • LAMEPS (regional model, ~20 km / 40 lev.): • HIRLAM 20 + 1 members • Initial perturbations and lateral boundary conditions from TEPS (6 hourly updates on boundaries)

  4. Verification area • Target area SVs Integration area HIRLAM

  5. Running TEPS to +90h 20 + 1 members Generation of perturbations ECMWF 30 minutes 12 UTC 2 hours TEPS is automatically transferred to met.no TEPS is made ready to run in the Norwegian model environment 19 UTC TEPS is transferred to Trondheim Generation of HIRLAM perturbations 00 UTC Results from LAMEPS transferred back to met.no Generation of products for users/customers LAMEPS running 18 UTC, to +60h 50 minutes

  6. Verification • 20+1 TEPS/LAMPES/EPS members • Time period 14/2-12/4-2005 • Parameter: 24 hours precipitation (from 06 to 06 UTC) • Forecast lengthsLAMEPS: +36 and +60 hoursTEPS : +42 and +66 hoursEPS : +42 and +66 hours

  7. ROC NTOT= 81409, NOCC= 5040, P_CLI=0.062 NTOT= 81409, NOCC= 778, P_CLI=0.010 +36/+42h

  8. NTOT= 81288, NOCC= 5037, P_CLI=0.062 NTOT= 81288, NOCC= 808, P_CLI=0.010 +60/+66h

  9. Cost/loss +36/+42h

  10. +60/+66h

  11. BSS/Area ROC

  12. Summary verification • Small precipitation amounts – TEPS/EPS best • Medium precipitation amounts (~10 mm/day) - TEPS/EPS best • Large precipitation amounts (15 mm/day and more) – LAMEPS best

  13. Case study: “100 year precipitation” in the middle part of Norway in August 2003 • 14. – 15. August 2003 • Atnadalen: 116,5 mm/24h, 156,2 mm/48h • Sunndalsøra: 102,5 mm/24h, 171,9 mm/48h

  14. 14. Aug. 06UTC - 15. Aug. 06UTC Observed

  15. +42h Operational HIRLAM 20 km

  16. ECMWF ensemble +42h

  17. +42h LAMEPS ensemble

  18. Use of LAMEPS • Forecasting • EU-project Eurorisk • Storm-surge LAMEPS • Input to hydrological models

  19. Area: Selbusjøen 615moh Time T2m dT/dz R6 18+ 0 7.4 -1.3 0.0 18+ 6 1.0 -0.7 0.0 18+12 1.7 -0.8 1.5 … … 18+54 3.3 -0.6 1.5 18+60 5.1 -0.7 0.3 Ensemble of hydrological models – one time series for each ensemble member as input to the hydrological models (customers) Examples of use of LAMEPS

  20. Examples of use cont.

  21. Future developments • Include perturbing of the model physics • Increase the time resolution of the boundary fields • Expand system to more parameters: temperature, wind, …. • Develop probability products • Compute SVs within HIRLAM • Move to higher resolution

More Related