Integration of V&A Analysis by Arthur W. Rolle

1. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for the Asia and Pacific RegionJakarta, Indonesia, 20 March, 2006 Integration of V&A Analysis by Arthur W. Rolle

2. Outline • General points • Integration of results • Cross sector and multi-sector integration • Setting priorities • Vulnerability • Adaptation • Examples of Adaptation Integration • Benefit-cost Analysis • Conclusions

3. National Communications • Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should develop and publish their national communications. • Under the new guidelines (decision 17/CP.8), Parties should communicate to the COP a general description of programs containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, etc.

4. Reporting Requirements • The following categories of impacts/vulnerability are expected to be reported: agriculture, tourism, health, forests, water resources, infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions, ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries and the economy.

5. Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation • Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation, to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)] • Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II]

6. After vulnerability and adaptation analyses- What’s next? • The interest should now be on incorporating initiatives, measures, strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change into other, existing policies, programs, resource management structures, disaster preparedness program, livelihood enhancement activities, and other sustainable development initiatives.

7. WHY? • It is unrealistic to expect special policy initiatives to deal with climate change adaptation by itself, especially when so many of the suggested adaptations (drought planning, coastal infrastructure planning, flood preparedness, early warning, livelihood enhancement, etc) were being addressed in other policies or programs.

8. Why is Integration Important? • Impacts do not happen in isolation • Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect another • Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly • Others just indirectly • Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the affect of climate change in another sector • In addition, integration is necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations

9. Main Types of Integration of Results • Cross-sector integration • Link related sectors • Multisector • Economy or system wide • Integrated assessment models • Economic models

10. Some Integrated Assessment Models • IMAGE • ICLIPS • CLIMPACTS • MIASMA

11. Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect • In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate change • In one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture

12. Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology WATBAL Streamflow PET SCENARIOS GCM CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWATRES Crop water demand WEAP Evaluation Planning CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad. CROPWAT Regional irrigation

13. Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline (1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990)

14. Multi-sector Integration Modeling

15. IMAGE Model

16. Regional/National Economic Models • Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy • Problem with non-market impacts • Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models • Require much data • Can be expensive • Can be complex • Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

17. An Example of a Regional Model

18. A More “Simple” Approach • Add up results sector by sector • Limited by what is known within sectors • Problem of how to integrate across multiple end points • Impacts may be measured with different metrics • Need to account for many sectors • Does not capture sectoral interactions

19. Estimates of Damages for India

20. Can Also Measure Number of People Affected • “Millions at Risk” study did this • Global burden of disease

21. Millions at Risk Study

22. At a Minimum • Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts • If crops can be examined, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production

23. Integration through Setting Priorities • Vulnerability • Adaptation

24. Prioritization of Vulnerabilities • It can be quite useful for • Focusing adaptation measures • Monitoring • Adaptation

25. Examples of Adaptation Integration • Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA) • Integration of adaptation into national policies dealing with risk management and into their Environment Impact Assessment procedures. • Mozambique (World Bank) • Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks into Action Plan for Poverty Reduction • Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA) • Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into sustainable development planning

26. Example of Adaptation Integration • China (ADB, World Bank) • helping poor farmers adapt to drought conditions- government undertook integrated ecosystems management-house-level eco-farming integrated renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand and providing forage.

27. Process is as Important as Outcome • This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise • Need to include stakeholders and policy makers • The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities • Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

28. NAPA Process

29. C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 System/ Region/ Hazard Social impacts Economic impacts Environmental impacts Political impacts Ranking A B C Adaptation Policy Framework Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards

30. OECD Method

31. Ranking Adaptations • Screening • Multicriteria assessment • Benefit-cost analysis

32. Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua

33. Multicriteria Assessment

34. Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan

35. Ranking Based on Scenario

36. Benefit-Cost Analysis • Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs • Monetary values often used • Difficulty: what to do about non-market benefits or uncertainties • Difficulty: requires much data and analysis

37. BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati

38. What to Use

39. Conclusions • Integration is important to at least identify related impacts • Analysis is desirable because there can be surprises • Integration can also be useful for examining total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities

40. Conclusions • There should be involvement of local stakeholders, the private sector, individuals, the research community and different levels of government. • Awareness raising and capacity building also essential.