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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review. June 30 - July 2, 2009. Modeling of Atmospheric Chemistry. Presented by Larry Horowitz. Sequential coupling of chemistry and climate Methodology Uncertainties Synthesizing models and observations Stratospheric ozone chemistry

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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

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  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

  2. Modeling of Atmospheric Chemistry Presented by Larry Horowitz

  3. Sequential coupling of chemistry and climate Methodology Uncertainties Synthesizing models and observations Stratospheric ozone chemistry “Full” coupling of chemistry and climate Outline

  4. “Off-line” Coupling of Chemistry and Climate Global Emissions Tropospheric Column (2000) NOx (TgN/yr) Ozone (DU) Historical A2 A1B B1 A1FI SO2 (Tg/yr) Sulfate (mg/m2) Black Carbon (Tg/yr) Black Carbon (mg/m2) 1860 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 • Concentrations estimated with MOZART CTM (neglecting climate feedbacks) • Direct radiative forcing in climate model (CM2) (Horowitz, 2006)

  5. Multiple Uncertainties in Climate Impact of Aerosols Emission Projections (A1B scenario) Aerosol Optical Depth SO2 Black carbon CCSP SAP 3.2 Levy et al. (2008) CM2.1 Methodologies for black carbon: Scaled to CO emissions Estimates by D. Streets Scaled to SO2 emissions CM2.1 MOZART Radiation/Climate Emissions Concentrations

  6. Slow dry dep • Constraints on highly uncertain isoprene chemistry • Significant implications for ozone concentrations High NOx recycling Low NOx recycling 4% 8% Synthesizing Models and Field Observations ICARTT field campaign, Summer 2004 RONO2 (ppbv) OH RO2 Isoprene NO NO NO2 RONO2 (isoprene nitrates) Ozone RONO2 (ppbv) (Horowitz et al., 2007)

  7. Decline and Recovery of Polar Ozone Antarctic Minimum ozone column (DU) for each spring season Arctic

  8. Aim: Develop model to allow investigation into coupled chemistry-climate-air quality issues AM3, the atmospheric component of GFDL’s CM3 climate model for IPCC AR5, includes: “On-line” tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols Wet deposition in large-scale precipitation, convective updrafts, and mesoscale circulations Chemical feedbacks on climate through direct and indirect radiative effects Recent Developments:Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Climate Model

  9. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009

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