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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review. June 30 - July 2, 2009. Sea Level and Its Components. Presented by Keith Dixon. Sea Level Perspectives.

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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

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  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

  2. Sea Level and Its Components Presented by Keith Dixon

  3. Sea Level Perspectives • Stakeholders & Impacts: greatest interest in total sea level change at a point; local perspective (e.g., NOAA Office of Ocean & Coastal Resource Management – OCRM) • Modeling & Understanding:interest in contributions of individual terms & mechanisms; focusing first on the large-scale effects • Observations:(satellites, tide gauges, ARGO, XBTs, etc.) Questions of uncertainty ranges, time scales, forced vs. natural variability

  4. Components of Sea Level Change Total Sea Level Change = Steric + Change in Mass + Land Movements • Steric: we model it & work with observations e.g. Delworth et al (2005), Chang, et al. (man. in prep.) • Land Ice: currently only crude offline calculations from our model output. A nascent research topic at GFDLOlga Sergienko & Daniel Goldberg with M. Oppenheimer (PU) • Other mass changes:we model some terms (e.g., soil moisture), but do not address others (e.g., water mining, dams, reservoirs); large uncertainties in obs of some terms complicate 20th century model-to-obs comparisonse.g. Lettenmaier and Milly (submitted) • Land Movements:we don’t model

  5. Uncertainties in Sea Level Change (1910-1990) { ? Ch. 11; Fig 11.9IPCC TAR (2001) Total Sea Level Change = Steric + Change in Mass + Land Movements

  6. CM2.1 - Ocean Heat Uptake Delworth, et al. (2005) GRL CM2.1 realistically simulates observed global ocean warming (1950-2000). Aerosols (anthro & volcanic) have offset ~2/3 of the GHG-induced warming.

  7. CM2.1: Sizable steric signals from poorly observed regions Dixon & Vecchi (man. in prep.) • Southern Ocean circulation factors in AR4 models (Russell, et al. [2006, J Clim]) • Basin-scale: does Argo + Grace = or ≠ Jason ? (Chang, et al. [man. in prep.]) • Model projections of Sea level: NE US (Yin, et al. [2009, Nature Geosci.])

  8. Sea Level and Its Components - Summary • Ongoing efforts to advance the understanding of sea level change and to communicate the relevant findings to stakeholders. Research includes observational analyses and modeling • Significant challenges remain in directly comparing simulated sea level change to observational estimates: • Observational and modeling uncertainties • Current models do not represent all processes important for sea level change • Ice Sheets: The largest wildcard in sea level change

  9. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

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