Review of China’s City Development Plans

1. Review of China’s City Development Plans Mark Harrison November 2010

2. China Economy • China population 1.3 billion • Second largest economy in world • Set to be largest by 2020 - 2030 • GDP per capita approaching US$4,000 • 40% - 50% of GDP is investment • Over 50% of investment is infrastructure and property

3. Urban Population Source: UN World Urbanisation Prospects 2007

4. Historic Transformation • Agricultural –> industrial –> post-industrial • Process is familiar but scale unprecedented • Adjustments to socialist market economy • Changes in lifestyle, increasing household income • Rural – urban migration • Sub-urbanisation of towns and villages

5. Pearl River Delta

6. Some Milestones • Creation of urban land market • Assignment of land-use rights • Establishment of urban planning system • Reform of the household registration system • Marketisation of housing and food

7. National Priorities

8. National Priorities • Coastal provinces more than half GDP in 2005 • Bohai Economic Circle • Yangzi River Delta • Pearl River Delta • Develop centre and west • Restructure industrial north east • Close gap rural and urban incomes

9. Future Focus • City clusters • Metropolitan regions • Changsha – Zhuzhou - Xiangtan • New Districts • Tianjin Binhai • Chongqing Liangjiang • Urban – rural integration • Chengdu – Chongqing

10. China Urban Planning System • Urban Planning Act 1990 • Urban and Rural Area Planning Act 2008 • New planning law covers urban and rural areas • Emphasising regional development and integration of city and countryside

11. Water 25% Forest 21% Farm land 40% Oil Gas 10% Natural Resources Natural resources per capita far below world average level.

12. Coal Controls Energy Thermal occupies 83% of total power generation of China Coal occupies 91% of total fuel of Chinese thermal power

13. Climate Change • World’s largest emitter of CO2 • Urbanisation to increase GHG emissions • Mitigate impacts of climate change • Committed to UNFCCC principle of "Common but differentiated responsibilities" • China National Climate Change Action Plan • Science and Technology Action Plan on Climate Change

14. China Low Carbon Initiatives • 2007 15% of energy consumption from renewable energy • by 2020 • (Renewable Energy Plan) • 2009 Carbon emissions per unit GDP to be reduced 40-45% • by 2020 compared to 2005 • (Announced at UN Climate Change Summit, • Copenhagen) • 2009 100GW wind turbines, 20GW (2GW by 2011) solar • photovoltaic installed capacity by 2020 • (NEA) • 2010 8 pilot Low Carbon Cities; 5 pilot Low Carbon Provinces • (NDRC) • 2011 Energy and low carbon expected to be key focus of • emerging 12th Five Year Plan

15. 5+8 Pilot Provinces & Cities NDRC announces: Guangdong, Hubei, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Liaoning as Low Carbon Pilot Province, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Guiyang, Nanchang, Xiamen, Baoding as Low Carbon Pilot City

16. Policies & Strategies Develop Low Carbon Economy Promote Low Carbon Energy Technology Increase Carbon Sink Improve Carbon Capture Tech

17. Urban Issues

18. Urban Issues • Urban air and water pollution • Availability of freshwater • Impacts of continuing motorisation • Housing affordability • Consumption of energy/unit GDP 3.5 x US • (World Bank)

19. Urban Issues • Urban regeneration • Historic area protection • Many new development models appear in China • Shanghai Xintiandi, Suzhouhe, and 798… • Cityscape and urban design • Shanghai World Expo

20. Socio-economic Issues • Food security • “Red line" of 120 million ha of arable land • Stimulation of domestic demand • Rural development and living standards • Migrant workers, health and welfare • Ageing of population

21. Short-term Priorities • Stimulus package of US$585 billion • Low-income housing • Rural infrastructure • Water, electricity, transportation • Environment • Technological innovation • Sichuan reconstruction

22. Forthcoming Priorities • Fifth Plenum of 17th CPC Central Committee • Ongoing urbanisation • Reduction of energy consumption intensity • Boost efficiency of energy use • Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions • Progressive efforts to establish carbon trade markets

23. Forthcoming Priorities • Strengthen environmental and ecological protection • Security of water resources • Water, air and soil pollution • Flooding and natural disasters • Develop a "recycling economy“ • Promote economic use of natural resources • Infrastructure investment

24. Potential Future Milestones • Rural land reforms • Land held collectively • 700 million peasant farmers • Municipal finance reform • Land disposal contribution to GDP

25. Summary • Historic transformation from agrarian society • Ongoing urbanisation, industrialisation, modernisation • A rich country but modest per capita GDP • Uneven development across the country • Natural resource challenges • Mode and model of urbanisation

26. Summary • Considerable challenges ahead • Climate change and adaptation • Transport, energy, environment and water • Rural area development and living standards • Stimulating domestic demand, innovation • Regional development • Liveability

27. Summary • Carbon reduction/carbon trading policies • Develop newenergy industries • Infrastructure spending • Environment protection spending • More affordable housing • Disband separate urban and rural social benefit systems

28. Summary • National priorities to continue to develop • Bohai economic circle • Yangzi River Delta • Pearl River Delta • Development of central and western regions • Restructuring of industrial north east