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APACHE CORPORATION Analysis of Recent Financial Performance. University of Houston Energy Risk Management Bill Ramsey, Teressa Barner, Scott Randall October 22, 2003. AGENDA. APACHE and Peers Global Economy Superindependent E&P Industry APACHE/Peer Ratio Comparisons Going Forward.
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APACHE CORPORATIONAnalysis of Recent Financial Performance University of Houston Energy Risk Management Bill Ramsey, Teressa Barner, Scott Randall October 22, 2003
AGENDA • APACHE and Peers • Global Economy • Superindependent E&P Industry • APACHE/Peer Ratio Comparisons • Going Forward
APACHE and Peers • APACHE • Super Independent as defined by Herold’s • Financially successful over past several years • Houston based • Peers - Anadarko and Kerr-McGee • Chosen based on similarity of 5 operating metrics • Picked one larger company and one smaller • Apache and Anadarko are Full Cost whereas Kerr-McGee is Successful Efforts • Kerr-McGee has a chemicals segment that contributes ~1% of earnings
Global Economy • Forecast turnaround in 2004 - led by U.S. • Energy consumption highly correlated to growth - industrial feedstocks and fuel • Oil prices expected to decrease due to production from non-OPEC countries • NG prices expected to fluctuate between $4.50 and $5.00 per MMBTU
Superindependent E&P • Does very little “green field” development • Lower cost structures • Develop fields that are no longer economical for the majors • Replaces reserves primarily through acquisition • Requires strong balance sheet
Reserve Replacement Ability • Condition of balance sheet very significant in ability to acquire reserves • Apache demonstrates ability to take quick advantage of opportunities • Apache has no issues servicing debt and is in prime condition for taking on more
Reserve Ratios • Apache has had very consistent reserve replacement • In 2002 Kerr-McGee sold reserves • Apache’s low reserves/well should indicate that they are not very efficient at lifting
Cost Analysis • Apache has advantage in Finding Costs- Peer Group benchmark for 5 year median is $5.99/BOE • Apaches advantage in Lifting Costs seems to eroding
Apache’s Strategic Advantage • Apache’s stated strategy is value added growth as opposed to growth at all cost • Flatter management structure yields lower SG&A costs
Strategy Results • Yields higher ROCE and PM since they obtain greater value from each BOE • PM and ROCE more constant due also to stable overhead cost control • 2002 and 2003 metrics have dropped slightly due to lower gas prices
Our Past Has Been Impressive • Growth based on the following advantages: • Ability to execute on our strategy: • Exploit our Asset base • Efficient Operations (low finding and development costs using proven technologies) • Disciplined Acquisitions yielding high reserve value added ratios • Geographic focus leading to cost control and purchasing power • Strong Balance Sheet-evidenced by low debt/equity ratios
Future Oil and Gas Scenario* Medium Term World Oil Prices ($/bbl) Medium Term Natural Gas Price ($/mcf) Low 23.4 3.2 Base 24 3.3 High 24.5 3.6 Lower Oil and Gas Price Outlook Plays to Our Strategy • Short Term: Crude and Natural Gas Futures Strip through Cal ’04 is backwardated1 • Medium Term: 3 different scenarios illustrate price declines 2 This will increase Acquisition Opportunities as Competitors Shed their Assets to Survive! 1 10/21/03 : Nymex- WTI Kushing and NG Henry Hub 2 US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Our Future is Bright • Our balance sheet and operational strengths allow us to execute by: • Increasingly Efficient Acquisitions • Continuous exploitation of New Assets through extensions, discoveries and improved recovery • Relentless Focus, Cost Control and Purchasing Power
“Building to Last” Apache Corporation