Screening for Climate Change Risks

1. Screening for Climate Change Risks Nick Brooks nb@garama.co.uk • www.garama.co.uk

2. Presentation content • The purpose of screening • Different types of climate change risk associated with interventions • Screening for opportunities • Screening in the project cycle • Different approaches to screening • Outcomes of screening & next steps • Key issues to understand 2

3. Purpose of screening • To assess whether intervention likely to be associated with CC risks • To undertaken preliminary identification of risks (& opportunities) • To assess extent to which any risks & opportunities are already addressed • To determine whether detailed risk/vulnerability assessment required • To act as scoping exercise for terms of reference for a risk assessment • Often done alongside assessment of emissions (environmental impact) • Might screen for climate risks separately, or alongside env. screening 3 Photos: Pembina Institute (left), Paul Kelly (right), Flickr Creative Commons

4. Climate risks & development interventions (I) Impacts of climate change on intervention (project, programme, policy, etc) • Risks to implementation or outputs of initiatives (e.g. projects, programmes) Over lifetime of initiative • E.g. destruction of project infrastructure by unexpected extremes (outputs) • E.g. outputs not delivered due to poor access resulting from unexpected extremes • Risks to longer-term outcomes/impacts or success of initiatives Over period beyond intervention, over which benefits expected • E.g. expected yields increases not realised or sustained due to worsening climate hazards • E.g. systems (ag., water, etc) supported by intervention become unviable or redundant • Anticipated gains in human welfare, reductions in losses, not realised as a result 19

5. Climate risks & development interventions (II) Impacts of intervention on society & environment, mediated by climate change • Risks that initiatives will increase vulnerability of certain groups Further marginalisation or exclusion of vulnerable groups in worsening climate • E.g. loss of dry-season grazing by pastoralists facing drought (agr. expansion) • E.g. exclusion of poor through water pricing as water becomes more scarce • Risks that activities will contribute to or drive maladaptation Create dependency on systems/resources that will not be there in future • E.g. agricultural expansion into areas likely to become unproductive • Risks that activities will increase environmental sensitivity to climate change Accelerate environmental degradation/destruction, biodiversity loss • E.g. loss of migration corridors, fragmentation, (agr. or urban expansion, infrast.) 20

6. Development interventions & CC opportunities Predominantly, but not entirely, opportunities to address CC impacts • To raise awareness of issues (risks, response options, funding, etc) • E.g. through media, education, stakeholder engagement • To build capacity of institutions, communities • E.g. through professional training, institutional processes • To build & enhance resilience • E.g. by integrating adaptation into development assistance, policies, etc • To access climate finance for development • E.g. to support above + access to & dev. of (low-carbon) energy sources • To exploit potentially beneficial changes in climate • E.g. longer growing seasons, crop ranges expansion, comparative advantage etc • To promote low-carbon development, emissions reductions 26

7. Screening in the project cycle African Development Bank Climate screening as part of AfDB’s Climate Safeguards System. Followed by Adaptation Review and Evaluation Procedures (AREP) where risks identified. Analogous to screening for environmental impacts (e.g. to determine whether Environmental Impact Assessment required) From: Climate Screening and Adaptation Review and Evaluation Procedures Booklet. AfDB http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/CSS%20Basics-En_def.pdf 7

8. Different approaches to screening How is it done? Using checklist of intervention criteria (e.g. sector, location, etc) Using expert judgment & assessment based on knowledge of climate change related risks & vulnerabilities Using online tools Some screening approaches require knowledge of climate change and/or interpretation of climate data; others do not. Most useful approach is screening with little or no CC knowledge requirements & not depending on climate data, followed by more detailed expert assessment if required 8

9. Checklist approach: strengths & weaknesses • Strengths • Simple, quick & easy to develop and apply • No knowledge required other than familiarity with intervention in question • If developed in-house can form part of climate risk management system that means findings more likely to be acted on ✓ • Weaknesses • Possible only most obvious risks identified • Tend to ignore opportunities & be rather simplistic • If risks identified no guidance on how to address them 9

10. EC climate risk screening (EC 2009, Annex 7, p.114)

11. Updated EC screening 2011 - simplified Both NO: no action required. If one or more YES answer questions below: One or more YES: perform risk assessment unless convincing argument otherwise See EC 2011 Update Draft document.

12. Other checklist-type tools • Asian Development Bank (ADB) Project Risk Screening Tool • Multiple sectors & projects, uses ‘risk tables’, 15-20 minutes, no CC knowledge required. Helps mainstream CC and DRR. Recommends risk management & adaptation options • For general information and contact see: • http://unfccc.int/adaptation/nairobi_work_programme/knowledge_resources_and_publications/items/5465.php • Elements in DFID’s ORCHID tool • Sector or region vulnerable to climate variations? Based on list of hazards • Intervention’s objectives vulnerable to climate? • Does intervention already take climate hazards into consideration? • What other factors might influence practicality of more detailed risk assessment? • From Tanner et al. 2007, p.9. For report & other screening docs. see under outputs at: • http://www.ids.ac.uk/project/adaptation-screening-tools-for-development-cooperation-piloting-orchid-and-other-approaches 12

13. Expert approach: strengths & weaknesses • Strengths • Way of ensuring screening based on informed judgment • Can identify issues that might be missed by checklist approach • Weaknesses • Potential lack of consistency, subjectivity - quality control issues • Reliance on outside expertise rather than building in-house capacity • Often done after initial project development rather than at inception • Buy-in: will findings & recommendations be acted on? 13

14. Example risk screening table (DFID Tanzania expert screening) See also DFID Tz Climate Screening Table 2012 (updated for in-house use)

15. Example opportunity screening table (DFID Tz. expert screening) See also DFID Tz Climate Screening Table 2012 (updated for in-house use)

16. Online tools: strengths & weaknesses • Strengths • Deeper level of analysis than generally possible with simple checklist • No climate knowledge necessary - lead staff through process • Can help identify response options as well as risks and opportunities • Weaknesses • Resource intensive to develop and maintain • Lack of flexibility & potential over simplification (depending on design) • Generally designed by outside experts – how easy to update? • What are assumptions & are they valid? 💻 16

17. 17 AfDB online screening tool • Apply prior to completion of Project Concept Note (PCN) • No knowledge of climate change required From: Climate Screening and Adaptation Review and Evaluation Procedures Booklet. AfDB http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/CSS%20Basics-En_def.pdf

18. 18 AfDB online screening tool

19. Outcomes of screening process – AfDB Commission expert study (climate risk assessment) Identify adaptation measures using online tool & supplement measures Identify adaptation measures using online tool From: Climate Screening and Adaptation Review and Evaluation Procedures Booklet. AfDB http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/CSS%20Basics-En_def.pdf 19

20. Next steps Screening will lead to one of following conclusions: • Intervention requires no further action to address climate change issues • Some modifications are required to address climate risks/opportunities • Tools & guidance often cover selection of adaptation options • AfDB tool guides users through selection of adaptation options • A detailed climate risk/vulnerability assessment is required HorlaVerlan, Flickr Creative Commons License 20

21. KEY QUESTIONS • What risks (5 types) and opportunities are associated with your work (project, programme, etc) • What type of screening process/framework is appropriate to your organisation/context? • Formal screening framework/methodology/tools? • Subjective screening based on 5 types of risk & expert judgment? 21