Planning for climate change

Planning for climate change Climate Science in the Public Interest

Outline • Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation • Assessing vulnerability to climate fluctuations • Spatial scale of planning for climate change • Who’s preparing? • Planning in the PNW

Terminology Adaptation Mitigation

Vulnerability Assessment • Identify outcome variables of concern … vulnerability of what? over what timescale? • Identify stressors of concern vulnerability to what? • Full vulnerability assessment adds consideration of the context, values & objectives; must consider human choices & viewpoints, and cross-sectoral impacts. Vogel & O’Brien 2004

Components of Climate Vulnerability Exposure the degree to which a system experiences a fluctuation in climate Characteristics of climate fluctuation: Magnitude, areal extent, frequency, duration, suddenness

Components of Climate Vulnerability Sensitivity the degree to which a system changes in response to changes in as external conditions (e.g., the climate) Influential system characteristics: Stability, flexibility, diversity, scale

Components of Climate Vulnerability Adaptability to what degree are adjustments possible in practices, processes, or structures of systems in response to projected or actual changes in climate?

Characteristics of Adaptation • reactive vs. proactive • intent • scale*: local to national, individual to society • timing • duration*: short- vs. long-term, tactical vs. strategic, adjustment vs. adaptation • technological and institutional adjustments • effect*: buffer or change to new state * = important to consider when evaluating success

Components of Climate Vulnerability Exposure x Sensitivity – Adaptability = Vulnerability

The Outcome…

How do we reduce vulnerability? Exposure x Sensitivity – Adaptability = Vulnerability • reduce the exposure of the system to climate fluctuations or their impacts (e.g., by restricting development in a flood plain) • reduce the system’s sensitivity (e.g., by requiring homes in the flood plain to be built on stilts • increase the adaptability of the system to deal with the effects of climate fluctuations (by providing education about climate risks to encourage relocation or reducing insurance payouts to flooded residents for rebuilding their homes)

Building Capacity and Delivering Action Two-Pronged Approach: Building Adaptive Capacity • Addressing institutional, legal, cultural, technical, fiscal and other barriers • Activities can be taken independent of specific climate projections Delivering Adaptive Actions Implementing actions to address specific climate vulnerabilities Choice and timing of some actions may depend on specifics of the climate projections

Characteristics of Adaptation • ongoing process (embedded examples of existing adaptations to climate) • adaptation = both a policy response and a spontaneous adjustment • occurs not in isolation but within complex milieu of ecological, economic, social & institutional circumstances • not always successful • maladaptation occurs because of other social goals, often short-term

The importance of preparation

What defines success? Define “successful” adaptation • survival in largely the same form as it exists today (stability) • continued ability to provide the same or similar system functions over the long term Do we want PNW forests to provide harvestable timber or to support biological diversity? I Do we want homes near today’s current flood plain to be protected in their current locations or for there to be no homes there to worry about protecting? Define the temporal and spatial scales for evaluation • Criteria for success vary with the spatial scale of evaluation and are weighted and valued differently by different interest groups (Adger et al. 2005). Do we want the PNW to continue providing harvestable timber (or supporting biodiversity) over the next 10, 100, or 1000 years? • Indicators calculated at one scale may hide substantial variations in adaptive capacity at another (Adger et al. 2005b). Are we interested in the continued existence of salmon somewhere in the world, or the survival of specific stocks within specific watersheds in the PNW? • Efficiency, effectiveness, equity & legitimacy… (Adger et al. 2005).

Why assess vulnerability? • To understand actual implications of climate change • To provide a do-nothing benchmark for evaluating response options • Identify priority areas for action (high exposure, high sensitivity, low adaptatibility) • Guide decision makers in planning (via identification & evaluation of adaptation options)

Sensitivity, adaptability, vulnerability of Columbia River water resources to climate variability and change (Miles et al. 2000) Stressors = climate variability and change, plus population growth, changing environmental values/operational priorities Outcomes of concern = Columbia River water resources operating objectives (reliability) Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

Global warming impacts on United States: Common concerns… • drought • extreme events • human health • forests • agriculture • sea level rise/coastal impacts • loss of biodiversity • … (NAST 2000)

… and regional vulnerabilities “regional and local level impacts are much more pronounced than those at the national level.”

Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW) Climate Impacts Group Climate Impacts Group Climate Impacts Group Climate Impacts Group Climate Impacts Group http://www.yakima.net/ Climate Impacts Group

What causes variability in impacts? Heterogeneity of: • climate change • climatic sensitivities • ecosystems and natural resources • human alteration of natural systems • degree of human dependence on natural systems • human ability to cope . . .

Lessons Learned The regional textures of environmental and social processes require a regional (or finer-scale) approach to assessing and responding to climate impacts.

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/tools/adapt.asp

Local preparation for climate change Seattle – City Light, Public Utilities, Port King County – in-house, state-wide, nationally Columbia River Basin - US Army Corps of Engineers, Bonneville Power Administration, etc. NOAA – guidance for ESA decisions under climate change City of Olympia – sea level rise and increased river runoff Olympic National Park/National Forest – vulnerability assessment/adaptation planning Washington State…

The foundation for WA’s efforts to address both climate change mitigation and adaptation is Exec Order 07-02, signed February 7, 2007

Supporting WA State Climate Needs: Decision Support • Support for the WA Preparation/Adaptation Working Groups (PAWGs) (July-Dec 2007). • Participated in monthly meetings • Provided technical guidance on climate impacts science and adaptation • Reviewed PAWG recommendations Released February 2008

Washington State PAWG Recs Broad range of recommendations related to: Enhancing emergency preparedness and response; Incorporating climate change and its impacts into planning and decision-making processes; Restoring and protecting natural systems and natural resources; Building institutional capacity and knowledge to address impacts associated with climate change; More effectively managing and sharing best available data; and Educating, informing and engaging landowners, public officials, citizens and others.

Supporting WA State Climate Needs: Decision Support (cont’d) • Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment • Funded by the WA State Legislature under HB 1303, §404 • First comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on WA • Products include final report as well as comprehensive data sets “An absolutely groundbreaking study….adds urgency and specificity to the range of impacts that we will have to be concerned with.” -- Jay Manning, Director, WA Dept of Ecology, (2.11.09, Weekday, KUOW 94.9 FM)

Washington State: Preparing for Climate Change In spring 2009: Governor Gregoire signed legislation (E2SSB 5560) that included provisions for the formation of an “integrated climate change strategy” that would “better enable state and local agencies, public and private businesses, nongovernmental organizations, and individuals to prepare for, address, and adapt to the impacts of climate change.” The legislation directs Ecology, in partnership with the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Fish and Wildlife, Natural Resources, and Transportation to develop an initial state strategy by December of 2011.

Relationship Between the PAWGs, the HB 1303 sectors, and the State Topic Advisory Groups TAGs Built Environment, Infrastructure & Communities Human Health & Security Ecosystems, Species, Habitats Natural Resources (working lands & waters)

Additional activities of Washington State Funded Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project Member of West Coast Governors’ Association Requested NRC report on sea level rise West Coast Gov’s Agreement on Ocean Health BC/WA MOU on managing for sea level rise Puget Sound Partnership – updating action agenda to include climate change Updating Shoreline Management Plans to include climate change

Group Start-Up

http://catalyst.washington.edu/web_tools/sharespaces.html

Group Start-Up: ID challenges • Different languages, vocabularies & standards of knowing • Allocate effort & time for clear communication • Invest strongly in problem definition early in the project • Biases and prejudices that accompany disciplinary training • Self-awareness & respect for/willingness to learn about other methods/approaches Nicholson et al. 2002. Ten heuristics for interdisciplinary modeling projects. Ecosystems 5: 376-384. Lele and Norgaard. 2005. Practicing interdisciplinarity. BioScience 55: 967-975.

Group Start-Up • Share personal information about yourself • Identify your skills that may be useful to the team • Identify your preferences about how you like to work with others • Identify your team’s strengths and weaknesses • Discuss various roles/responsibilities of teamwork and who will fill those roles • Establish plans for collaboration in the near term

Supporting WA State Climate Needs: Decision Support (cont’d) • Peer-reviewed scientific publications, white papers, fact sheets, and other documents on climate impacts

Motivation for writing grew out of October 2005 King County climate change conference • Written by the CIG and King County, WA in association with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability • Focused on the process (not a sector), and written for a national audience • More than 2,000 hard copies and electronic copies distributed globally

King County, WA Replacing 57+ “short span” bridges with wider spans Replacing undersized culverts Incorporating low impact development techniques to reduce stormwater runoff Revamping county levee system Bringing water reuse plant online Evaluating impacts of sea level rise on wastewater infrastructure

City of Olympia, WA $150,000 allocated to start on climate change adaptation strategy Installing 2 GPS station downtown to better assess subsidence and uplift in the downtown area Implementing Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) technology to improve topographical elevation information (over aerial photography) for more accurate hydrologic modeling and vulnerability analysis A hydraulic computer model will be developed to better evaluate the interactions between stormwater and streamflow

Planning for climate change