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The Australian Forestry Industry An investment perspective. Disclaimer.
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Disclaimer Disclaimer:This document is for the exclusive use of the person to whom it is provided by Lonsec Ltd ABN 56 061 751 102 (“Lonsec”), an Australian Financial Services Licensee and Participant of ASX Group and must not be used or relied upon by any other person. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document, which is based solely on public information that has not been verified by Lonsec. The conclusions and recommendations contained in this document are reasonably held at the time of completion but are subject to change without notice and Lonsec assumes no obligation to update this document. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Lonsec, its directors, employees and agents disclaim all liability (whether in negligence or otherwise) for any error or inaccuracy in, or omission from, the information contained in this document or any loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person directly or indirectly through relying upon the information. Warning (General Advice Only): Any express or implied recommendation or advice contained in this document has been prepared for the Financial Intermediary and is strictly limited to General Advice, based on the investment merits of the security or issuer alone without taking into account any person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Before making an investment decision based on such advice, the recipient must decide whether it is appropriate to his/her investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs or seek professional advice from the Financial Intermediary. Past investment performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Disclosure:Lonsec’s directors, officers, representatives, and their associates, may hold the securities referred to in this document, which may change during the life of document, but none receives or gains any other benefit as a consequence of the recommendation or advice presented in this, this document. Lonsec considers such holdings not to be sufficiently material to compromise the recommendations or advice, and the Analyst at the time of publication is not aware of any holdings. Lonsec receives brokerage or other benefits (e.g. application fees) for dealing in financial products and its associated companies or introducers of business may directly share in the brokerage or benefits.
Agenda • Lonsec Agribusiness Research • Who are we? • What do we do? • History of forestry investment • Key drivers of investment • Investors & investment vehicles • Past performance • Current industry position • Resource & ownershipoverview • Taxation update • The future of forestry investment • Opportunities • Threats • What are we likely to see? • North East Victoria • Considerations for further investment
Lonsec Who are we? • Stockbroking • Listed and Unlisted Investment Research What do we do? • Agribusiness Research • Industry Outlooks • Sector Specific, demand & supply fundamentals • Manager Profiles • Broader business analysis & rating • Detailed Research reports • Product specific assessment • Investment tools • Cash Flow Calculator • Case Studies • Research into industry issues – e.g. forestry
Lonsec The Agribusiness team
History of forestry investment Key Drivers of Investment • Industry level • Deep global market • Management • Technological development • Scale and efficiency • Investor level • Tax effective structures • Risk:return profile • Diversification • Low correlation
History of forestry investment Investment Vehicles • Listed • Unlisted • Direct Investor Categories • Retail • Wholesale • Institutional Hypothetical forest fund structure
History of forestry investment Past performance • Varied results • Industry-wide issues • Poor site selection • Overstatement of yield expectation • Drought • Early stage technology (genetics, nutrition, pest management) • Positives • Development of genetics, nutrition & harvesting systems • Further investment in research and development • Revised site selection criteria • Improved operational management structure and systems
Current industry position Overview • Area • Ownership Source: DAFF Source: DAFF
Current industry position Overview • Distribution • Products • Pulpwood • Construction timber • Appearance Grade Timber • Sandalwood Hardwood Softwood Source: DAFF
Current industry position Taxation update for MIS • Conditions for deductibility for investors in forestry MIS: • Direct Forestry Expenditure (DFE) of 70% • 18 month establishment rule • 4 year holding period • Other amendments: • Secondary market
The future of forestry investment Opportunities • Secondary market • Carbon credits • Renewable energy • Processing and infrastructure Threats • Land availability • Regulatory risks • Climate change • Water policy
The future of forestry investment What are we likely to see? • Continued investment through MIS • Greater diversity of investment products • Greater investment through: • Managed funds • Institutional investors • Horizontal and vertical integration
North East Victoria Considerations for further investment • Stakeholder objectives • Opportunities for plantation development • Land inventory profile • New land • Second rotation • Land use change • Scalable? • Limitations • Investment in infrastructure and processing facilities • Define demand • Cost analysis • Joint-ventures • Other considerations • Carbon sequestration • Biofuels
Recap • Lonsec Agribusiness Research • History of the Australian forestry industry • Current industry position • The future of forestry investment • North East Victoria
Lonsec website For more information on: • Australian forestry industry • Manager Profiles • Global supply and demand • Price outlook • Industry issues and developments • Investing in Agribusiness • Investment Opportunities www.lonsec.com.au